Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

[Charles L. Cotton]

I wonder if I should start the long process (by law it's 10 days, but it actually takes months) of getting the data to compare Texas peace officers to the general population and to CHLs? It might prove handy when some folks try to water down or repeal the Texas version of the so-called "Castle Doctrine."

It might also prove useful in an effort to move CHL's from TPC §46.15(b) to 46.15(a).

A variation on the theme, "better to have ammo and not need it, than to need it and not have it". Especially if getting the information takes months.

I first got that information a few years ago to block a rumored bill. At that time, LEO stats were much better than the general public, but about half as good as CHLs. I suspect the gap between LEOs and CHLs is now much greater because of the huge change in the comparison since 2007. The move from TPC §46.15(b) to §46.15(a) is exactly why I want the numbers again.

These are not numbers I ever posted, nor do I anticipate doing so in the future. The goal isn't to hurt LEO image, it's to promote the interests of CHLs.

Chas.

[sjfcontrol]

What kind of crime is "Group Homes & Nursing Homes"?
What is "Trafficking"? (in what?)
What is "Tampering"? (with what?)

[tacticool]

That was an interesting bump after three months. Can you give us some context for the questions?

[sjfcontrol]

That was an interesting bump after three months. Can you give us some context for the questions?

Have you looked at the stats?

[srothstein]

I am answering based on an assumption, so let me know if I do not answer the question properly. The assumption is that you are referring to the titles used on the DPS list and trying to decipher what crimes were committed.

What kind of crime is "Group Homes & Nursing Homes"?

This is an injury to a child or elderly person, when the person charged is an owner, operator, or emplyee of a group or nursing home. The last part of the title is whether the injury was caused by reckless behavior or by negligent behavior. The difference is how much care should have been exercised by the suspect.

What is "Trafficking"? (in what?)

Trafficking is human slavery, especially as pertains to the sex trade. It is a new form of crime for compelling a person to be a prostitute, including moving that person to a location or providing a shelter to the person. The law does not mention the sex trade explicitly, though that was the driving factor, and has been used for those who smuggle illegal immigrants in and use them as household slaves.

Yes, this does still go on in the US.

What is "Tampering"? (with what?)

If you mean the tampering with a consumer product, this is the people who poison something and put it back out on the shelf to be sold. A few years back, there was a spate of drugs being modified and poisons put in other household products, then the package being put on the shelf to be sold. This law was the response, as was the tamper proof packaging we see a lot of now (seals on jars, etc.).

[sjfcontrol]

Thanks, Steve, yes --that was exactly what I was asking. I wasn't sure if the trafficking was in people, or drugs. The other two I didn't have a clue. Thanks for enlightening me!

[68blackbird]

Saw this evening, maybe it has been discussed?

From Wiki...FWIW

a 3-year study of Texas crime statistics immediately following passage of CHL legislation found that the most common crime committed by CHL holders that would be grounds for revocation was actually DUI, followed by unlawful carry and then aggravated assault. The same study concluded that Texas CHL holders were always less likely to commit any particular type of crime than the general population, and overall were 13 times less likely to commit any crime.[8]

[Charles L. Cotton]

I had to upload another copy of the Crime Comparison spreadsheet, due to the minor bug that cropped up during the migration to the new server.

Chas.

[baldeagle]

Charles, can you make this post a sticky so it stays at the top all the time? I use this information quite regularly and have to search for it each time I need it.

And thank you so much for maintaining this invaluable source of factual information about Texan CHL holders.

[Charles L. Cotton]

Charles, can you make this post a sticky so it stays at the top all the time? I use this information quite regularly and have to search for it each time I need it.

And thank you so much for maintaining this invaluable source of factual information about Texan CHL holders.

It was a sticky, but since there are a few in that section, it wasn't on top. I made it an Announcement so it will always be at the top of the General CHL Discussion forum. Thanks for the suggestion.

Chas.

[Charles L. Cotton]

I've added a two page pdf sheet that compares the crimes per 100,000 for 2011 and 2010. Crimes per 100,000 are a lot easier for most people to understand because a change of 1/10 of 1 percent with a population over 18 million people is far more significant than many folks appreciate.

Chas.

[baldeagle]

Charles, can you make this post a sticky so it stays at the top all the time? I use this information quite regularly and have to search for it each time I need it.

And thank you so much for maintaining this invaluable source of factual information about Texan CHL holders.

It was a sticky, but since there are a few in that section, it wasn't on top. I made it an Announcement so it will always be at the top of the General CHL Discussion forum. Thanks for the suggestion.

Chas.

Thank you, sir.

[TEA]

This is a great recourse. The way that DPS posts their data is hard to get much of value from, as they only have the arrest numbers and then the percentage of arrestees that are CHL holders. Without know the total number of CHL holders as a percentage of the population, it doesn't do much good to know what percentage of those arrested for crimes are CHL holders, as the significance of that percentage would go up or down depending on the total number of CHL holders in relation to the overall population. DPS does provide the statistics of number of CHL holders, but it is in a different set of tables and would be a pain in the backside to combine the two sets of numbers and do a proper statistical analysis. You have done a great job here, sir.

Since you started this thread back in 2008, am I correct in assuming that you have been updating this spreadsheet annually as DPS posts? If so, would you be willing to share those other spreadsheets? A data set spanning multiple years would provide a more convincing argument when I bring my proposal for allowing concealed carry on our college campus before our faculty association at the end of this month.

[Charles L. Cotton]

This is a great recourse. The way that DPS posts their data is hard to get much of value from, as they only have the arrest numbers and then the percentage of arrestees that are CHL holders. Without know the total number of CHL holders as a percentage of the population, it doesn't do much good to know what percentage of those arrested for crimes are CHL holders, as the significance of that percentage would go up or down depending on the total number of CHL holders in relation to the overall population. DPS does provide the statistics of number of CHL holders, but it is in a different set of tables and would be a pain in the backside to combine the two sets of numbers and do a proper statistical analysis. You have done a great job here, sir.

Since you started this thread back in 2008, am I correct in assuming that you have been updating this spreadsheet annually as DPS posts? If so, would you be willing to share those other spreadsheets? A data set spanning multiple years would provide a more convincing argument when I bring my proposal for allowing concealed carry on our college campus before our faculty association at the end of this month.

I have the data going back to 2002 and it's in the spreadsheet. The pdf is only the last two years and only the comparison per 100,000. I need to update for 2012 since DPS has now released that data.

Chas.

[Charles L. Cotton]

The spreadsheet has been updated to include 2012 data recently released by DPS. The numbers just keep getting better! In 2012, CHLs were 17.19 times less likely to commit a crime than the general public and this was up from 15.66 in 2011. That's almost a 10% improvement on an already excellent track record. I can't wait to see the numbers for 2013 since the CHL population jumped from 584,850 to 708,048.

So tell us Speaker Straus and Chairman Pickett, why exactly are there any remaining off-limits areas for CHLs?

Chas.