Power issues

[VMI77]

A station can nearly go down based on usage relative to its capacity. If the usage exceeds the capacity it could cause massive power outages or even damage equipment. Rolling black outs are a lot better than the alternative. I'd gladly be without power for short periods instead of a day or more.

That's all true but that's not what's happening right now. System load peaked around 65,000 MW this summer and is running at less than 55,000 MW right now. Furthermore, "grid" capacity is greater than in the summer time due to the cooling effects of the lower temperatures. The blackouts are due to a shortage of available generation. There is plenty of generation in the state (since it served up 10,000 more MW this summer than is being used right now), but a lot of generation is unavailable because it is down for maintenance (which is done during times of reduced demand) and due to failures associated with the unusually (for Texas) cold weather.

[RPB]

There you go, log fireplaces, wood stoves, gas fireplaces and gas heaters must use more of those electricicalls volty ampy watty thingys than air conditioners use in the Summer.
It's that Global warming.

[cougartex]

Just announced, Entergy in southeast Texas, does not anticipate having to use rolling blackouts. Entergy is not part of ERCOT.

[VMI77]

There you go, log fireplaces, wood stoves, gas fireplaces and gas heaters must use more of those electricicalls volty ampy watty thingys than air conditioners use in the Summer.
It's that Global warming.

As I pointed out above, system load was 65,000 MW this past summer, it's less than 55,000 MW now, so less electricity is being used.

[VMI77]

Just announced, Entergy in southeast Texas, does not anticipate having to use rolling blackouts. Entergy is not part of ERCOT.

Yes, Entergy, being outside the ERCOT region, is not "deregulated" (there is also the fact that they don't cover the same range of weather conditions geographically, so they are physically less affected than ERCOT is on the whole). IMHO, we wouldn't be seeing a lack of available generation if ERCOT was still regulated --or at least, not to the same extent-- because decisions to operate generation in the old system were based on reliability. Now these decisions are driven by market expectations --generators have practically zero reliability obligations. Their primary objective under deregulation is to maximize profit. Generator profit and system reliability, while not quite opposites, are enough in opposition that there is incentive on the generation side to seek shortages. In fact, the market even has a name for this, "scarcity pricing," which is considered by advocates of deregulation to be a very good thing. This morning, the spot price for electricity in ERCOT was somewhere between 30 to 60 times the "normal" price (depending on how you calculate what is "normal"). At the moment it's back down to around 2 to 6 times normal, indicating supply is catching up with demand.

[sjfcontrol]

My house is almost all electric. Water heater is gas and so is the furnace. However, the thermostat for the furnace is electric and does not work when there is no electricity. I do have a fireplace and plenty of wood. It is burning as I type.

It wouldn't matter. Assuming by a "gas furnace", you mean your heat is generated by a Forced-Hot-Air system, even if you could get the burners to light, there'd be no juice to run the fans that circulate it. If you did trick the burners to come on, all those BTUs would just build up in the furnace until the entire thing burst into flames, or melted down. By the way, IANAHVACT (I am not a HVAC Technician!)

Our power went off twice this morning, too. Once at 7:00am, and again around 9:50.

The pipes in the master bathroom froze last night too -- No damage (AFAICT), and got it thawed out about an hour ago.

[VMI77]

2 - 2 of the power stations almost went down due to over use (not sure how you can "almost go down", but ...)

One way you can "almost go down" is to approach a limit that will either cause equipment to trip automatically, or require operator intervention to protect equipment, and take action to avoid reaching the limit (or simply ignore the limit --sometimes by bypassing safety devices-- if the consequences aren't too severe). So, for instance, a generator might be operating at maximum output, observe something like a boiler tube leak, and back down generation to stay on line at a lower level, whereas, if they'd continued to generate at maximum, they would ultimately have tripped and ceased operation.

[C-dub]

I forgot about the blower.

I had to get out again today. The 100 watt light I have in the pump house for my pool is normally enough to keep the pipes and pump from freezing. That's when it is only down to around 28. With the teen temperatures we're seeing on an extended basis it wasn't enough. I took off to Home Depot for a small ceramic heater, but they were all out. I ended up with a 250W heat lamp and hooked it up to hang about 4 feet above all the pipes. We'll see how that does. It takes care of two things by being a heat source and a light. I hope it works. It actually seems a little safer than the heater.

[Bart]

Since deregulation, there have not been any new power plants built in Texas AFAIK. There has only been companies established that broker power from existing facilities. Now with that said, there have been some generation stations, such as wind power, that have been built. However, this is not near enough for the amount of population growth and usage.

Regulation is to blame too.

Several years ago there were companies that started the ball rolling to build new nuclear plants, but government regulation and red tape makes that take a lot longer than the companies would like. So, in that case, regulation is reducing generation capacity.

There are also a lot of environmental regulations on coal fired generation. Worse, the rules keep changing. Without a stable regulatory environment, companies can't make good decisions on long term investments. So they're reluctant to build coal plants, for example, because they can't be sure the government won't pull the rug out from under them. So, in that case, regulation is reducing generation capacity.

[RPBrown]

Our power has been out twice this morning. I sure hoped that turning off my heat twice, for 45 minutes each time, helped out the power grid situation.

I wonder when Cowboy Stadium will be taken down?

We've been down 4 times so far.

I read online that the stadium is exempt from the black out. Go figure. Just like the planned $450,000.00 jet fly overs that will not be seen from inside the stadium.

[stroo]

We have been down four times so far today, every two hours starting at 6:45. Maybe its over though because we did not go down at 2 pm.

[VMI77]

Since deregulation, there have not been any new power plants built in Texas AFAIK. There has only been companies established that broker power from existing facilities. Now with that said, there have been some generation stations, such as wind power, that have been built. However, this is not near enough for the amount of population growth and usage.

Regulation is to blame too.

Several years ago there were companies that started the ball rolling to build new nuclear plants, but government regulation and red tape makes that take a lot longer than the companies would like. So, in that case, regulation is reducing generation capacity.

There are also a lot of environmental regulations on coal fired generation. Worse, the rules keep changing. Without a stable regulatory environment, companies can't make good decisions on long term investments. So they're reluctant to build coal plants, for example, because they can't be sure the government won't pull the rug out from under them. So, in that case, regulation is reducing generation capacity.

I don't know where you guys are getting your information. More generation is being built in Texas since deregulation than at any other time in history. The statement that no power plants have been built in Texas since deregulation is flat out false. Between 2003 and today, 16,500 MW of new generation has become operational. Furthermore, there is about 63,000 MW of new generation currently in the "planning" stage --a category that includes everything from proposed generation under study to generation about to begin construction. The 2010 summer peak was only 65,000 MW. About half this prospective new generation is wind. Of the other half, most is gas fired, but it includes about 6000 MW of coal and 6000 MW of nuclear power. This information is publicly available at the ERCOT website (though not necessarily easy to find).

If you're interested, go here http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2011/01/20110113-ROS and download the file entitled "Planning Report December 2010."

[stroo]

In the planning stage and built are two different things.

[Bart]

Thanks for the link VMI77. More than half the planned generation is renewables, probably driven by tax credits and other regulatory policy. Most of the rest is natgas generation which is less capital intensive, so it's lower plant cost but higher operating cost. I can't tell from the document, but it wouldn't surprise me if the planned coal and nuclear are not new plants but increased generation from existing plants.

[74novaman]

we were off and on all morning, but have had power for 4 straight hours now.

The thing that really bothered me was when lights in town would go out, people would just blow right them at 40+ mph. Seems like accidents waiting to happen. Not sure if its common courtesy or law, but I always was taught that if a light is non operational, you just treat it like a 4 way stop.