DPS Demographic Reports for Calendar Year 2009

[WildBill]

I did find it interesting that Tarrant County is second, only to Harris, in the number of licenses issued.

Me as well Zeke.

I'm actually no surprised about that one. Tarrant County is a pretty conservative area overall. The one that surprises me is that Harris County is 17.27% of the total. Given the stuff you hear about Houston PD and past Houston Mayor viz-a-viz CHL, one wonders why there is such a large spike in numbers in that one county.

Maybe some of you Harris County folks could weigh in with a theory?

My theory is that you can't predict a person's or group's actions based solely upon an arbitrary label assigned to that person or group.

[lrb111]

I would be interested to know if the MPA impacted the numbers.

That is my bet. If the Motorist Protection Act had been in place when i first applied, I probably wouldn't have bothered.
Which also means I would not been aware of all the good things (toys) associated with the CHL.

[Skiprr]

The one that surprises me is that Harris County is 17.27% of the total. Given the stuff you hear about Houston PD and past Houston Mayor viz-a-viz CHL, one wonders why there is such a large spike in numbers in that one county.

Maybe some of you Harris County folks could weigh in with a theory?

Simple. We have what is probably the most active urban shooting community (legal shooting; ahem) contained within a 50-mile radius in the State of Texas.

The number of ranges is impressive, and you can shoot an IDPA or USPSA match almost every day of the week. Some matches even overlap.

And perhaps it was because of the past Houston mayor (who should never be elected governor of Texas), and because of the imminent election of yet another liberal mayor in Parker. Sigh. We suffer through this probably because of our urban density; it's the same reason Sheila Jackson Lee is never dethroned.

But perhaps it was mostly because of Hurricane Ike, which tore an irreparable hole in Houston in September 2008, leaving many with damaged and leaking housing, with no electricity, with no phone service, with no gasoline, low on potable water and food, and realizing they were unprepared to survive the unexpected.

Don't know what you hear up north about HPD, but the men and women of the force in Houston who put their lives on the line every day are the best of the best. I know many, and not one--HPD or HCSO--that I know is anti-CHL.

[surprise_i'm_armed]

TAM:

Re: the high numbers of new CHL's in Harris County.

Have you read their crime reports? It seems like Houston
has enough BG's that a CHL is needed by all who can qualify to get one.
IMHO.

SIA

[boomerang]

Maybe some of you Harris County folks could weigh in with a theory?

My guess would be the combination of Ike and Katrina. Ike probably pushed some people off the fence. Katrina because there's a perception of increased crime in Houston since the Katrina evacuees came.

[Carry-a-Kimber]

I figure since Harris County has a population of roughly 16-17% of the population of Texas, it would make sense that it would have that percentage of the new CHL population. I did fail statistics the first time 'round though the prof was Greek and he may as well been speakin' it. Another thought is the increase in crime since Katrina and the fact that while Bill White was in office, Houston was a "santuary city" for illegals. People just want to feel a little more secure around these parts.

[Ol Zeke]

I figure since Harris County has a population of roughly 16-17% of the population of Texas, it would make sense that it would have that percentage of the new CHL population. I did fail statistics the first time 'round though the prof was Greek and he may as well been speakin' it. Another thought is the increase in crime since Katrina and the fact that while Bill White was in office, Houston was a "santuary city" for illegals. People just want to feel a little more secure around these parts.

Makes sense to me.

[The Annoyed Man]

Harris County's population is approximately 4,070,989 people in 2009. Dallas County's population for 2009 is 2,451,730; and Tarrant County's population is 1,789,900. (Source for all three figures.) So, not counting Collin and Denton Counties, the DFW metroplex accounts for a total of 4,241,630 people — a larger population than Harris County. But the aggregate CHL apps approved for Dallas and Tarrant Counties is 13.33%. If everything else were equal and the percentage of approved applications per 1000 citizens were a constant, you would expect that aggregate percentage for both counties to be higher than Harris County's.

Please understand, I'm not disputing the results. I'm trying to understand them. My previous comments about liberal mayors, the HPD, etc. were not based on any first hand knowledge. They were based almost entirely on what I've read on this board over the past two years, which has left me with the distinct impression that HPD was not CHL friendly, previous Mayor White was not CHL friendly, and the former DA was not CHL friendly.

I can understand the after effects of Katrina and Ike at motivators to acquire a CHL.

[shootthesheet]

As many people as I have known that didn't really "like" handguns I think that number of new CHL holders and the new handgun owners in general is a good thing. I just hope the majority of those that became new CHL holders will renew. This is also good because we should be able to apply this increase when looking to improve CHL related laws. Especially if more people will get involved and our reps will actually push for real change. I would also like to see at least one good O.C. bill and Constitutional Carry seriously discussed in 2011. These numbers with this years increases could be a starting point for positive change.

[Ol Zeke]

I'm a statistic! (Brazoria)

I'm jealous. I always wanted to be one of those.

Not Me.....

Statistically speaking, the average human is ahh....... Average?

[Drewthetexan]

Harris County's population is approximately 4,070,989 people in 2009. Dallas County's population for 2009 is 2,451,730; and Tarrant County's population is 1,789,900. (Source for all three figures.) So, not counting Collin and Denton Counties, the DFW metroplex accounts for a total of 4,241,630 people — a larger population than Harris County. But the aggregate CHL apps approved for Dallas and Tarrant Counties is 13.33%. If everything else were equal and the percentage of approved applications per 1000 citizens were a constant, you would expect that aggregate percentage for both counties to be higher than Harris County's.

Please understand, I'm not disputing the results. I'm trying to understand them. My previous comments about liberal mayors, the HPD, etc. were not based on any first hand knowledge. They were based almost entirely on what I've read on this board over the past two years, which has left me with the distinct impression that HPD was not CHL friendly, previous Mayor White was not CHL friendly, and the former DA was not CHL friendly.

I can understand the after effects of Katrina and Ike at motivators to acquire a CHL.

I had originally thought the lower numbers for Dallas county *might* be due to it's more liberal composition.

Since race was included in the statistics, (Do they combine hispanic into white?) I also looked at that, and in 2008 Dallas County was 20.7% black versus 14.2% for Tarrant County. If blacks were getting CHLs at a similar rate as to whites, one might expect to see about 12% new CHLs going to blacks across Texas, but instead it is 6.3%. Maybe that is part of the story?

That explanation might not necessarily follow with Harris county, though, which is 18.7% black - but is also more conservative than Dallas county, based on 2008 presidential election results which, admittedly, doesn't really account for independents, but gives a general idea of political ideology. Travis county, which is more liberal than Dallas county only has 8.8% black population.

Looking at the per capita CHLs issued for the four counties, and assuming approximately equal eligibility per capita, but not accounting for it:

county --- CHLs / Population --- Black Pop. --- McCain / Obama
Travis County: 3,113 / 1,026,158 -> 0.30% --- 8.8% --- 34 / 63
Dallas County: 8,175 / 2,451,730 -> 0.33% --- 20.7% --- 42 / 57
Harris County: 23,967 / 4,070,989 -> 0.59% --- 18.7% --- 49 / 50
Tarrant County: 10,325 / 1,789,900 -> 0.57% --- 14.2% --- 55 / 44

I started to break it down by zip codes, but that is a lot of work to try to compile meaningful info. I think demographics and political ideology are definitely factors, but not the entire story.

[SQLGeek]

Let me start by saying I have no data to back this up but it is a thought I've had.

Due to the energy business, Houston seems to attract a lot of people from out of state and out of the country. I don't know how many people Immigrate to Harris county versus some of the others but it seems reasonable to me that Harris county has a large influx of immigrants from areas where people are not able to carry a concealed handgun. Now that they are in a state where they are able to do so, many are jumping at that chance.

Just a thought...I have no ideas how the immigration numbers work out for the counties in question.

[joe817]

I took a quick cursory look at licenses issued by zip code, and jotted down the top 5:

Zip Code--# of lic.issued--City
77429-------810------------Cypress
77523-------785------------League City
77584-------657------------Pearland
77029-------593------------Houston(what area of Houston?)
76248-------583------------Keller(Tarrant County)

Other than raw numbers, I'm unable to draw any conclusion(liberal vs. conservative; Republican vs. Dem.; high crime rate vs. low crime rate; young population vs. older population; affluent vs. low income; frequency and availability of CHL classes, etc)

I think it'd be interesting to take a larger sampling, ie: jot down all zip codes that had more than 200 licenses issued, and do a similar listing, but that'd be a chore.

[MechAg94]

Bexar - 5.05%
Brazoria - 2.19%
Collin - 2.93%
Dallas - 5.89%
Denton - 2.70%
El Paso - 1.30%
Fort Bend - 2.69%
Galveston - 2.18%
Harris - 17.27%
Jefferson - 1.20%
Lubbock - 1.18%
Mc Lennan 1.19%
Montgomery - 3.28%
Nueces - 1.33%
Tarrant - 7.44%
Travis - 2.24%
Williamson - 1.48%

Please also note that Galveston, Brazoria, Fort Bend, and Montgomery counties are all counties surrounding Harris County. The entire surrounding Houston area made this list as well as Harris County.

I heard on a local radio show that some of the gun shops in Houston had record years. Collector's Firearms is advertising on the radio quite a bit now.

[gigag04]

My portfolio has done 33% SO FAR this year. If that's anemic growth in anything then bring on the famine.