Next banking crisis is already well underway

[Grayling813]

Biden/Harrisomics for all:

https://www.uscourts.gov/news/2024/07/2 ... .2 Percent

Personal and business bankruptcy filings rose 16.2 percent in the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2024, compared with the previous year.

Business filings rose 40.3 percent, from 15,724 to 22,060 in the year ending June 30, 2024.

This is not what a growing economy looks like. Its just gaslighting to say the economy is not in a recession

Fixed it for ya...Harris has to be held accountable for the failures of her boss.

[Paladin]

FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile Chart 7 shows continued massive unrealized banking losses:

Its interesting to note that while it is documented in the chart, it is found nowhere in the headline report.

Over $515 billion in unrealized banking losses. Higher unrealized losses on residential mortgage-backed securities, resulting from higher mortgage rates in the first quarter, drove the overall increase.

Coverup all the way.

[Paladin]

Harvard Business Review: U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Headed Toward a Crisis

U.S. banks face a reckoning: Over the next two years, more than $1 trillion in commercial real estate (CRE) loans will come due

The damage could metastasize into a full-blown financial crisis if scores or even hundreds of small- and midsize commercial banks fail simultaneously. A worst-case scenario might include contagion to other economies and banking deserts across the U.S.

Fed officials have indicated that a CRE crisis will probably lead to bank failures. Multiple, simultaneous bank failures could be catastrophic for the financial system.

It’s unlikely that the Fed, FDIC, and a consortium of the largest banks can rescue hundreds of compromised commercial banks at once.

Pandemic-accelerated troubles in the CRE market may take more than a decade to resolve.

Increasing office space vacancies linked to remote and hybrid work could extend price declines and deepen losses for lenders in this space. Most empty or underutilized office space is too costly to convert to residential or other uses and will require deeper price concessions. As leases can stretch to 10 years before they are due for renewal, it may take years for the office space market to clear.

[Grayling813]

Harvard Business Review: U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Headed Toward a Crisis

U.S. banks face a reckoning: Over the next two years, more than $1 trillion in commercial real estate (CRE) loans will come due

The damage could metastasize into a full-blown financial crisis if scores or even hundreds of small- and midsize commercial banks fail simultaneously. A worst-case scenario might include contagion to other economies and banking deserts across the U.S.

Fed officials have indicated that a CRE crisis will probably lead to bank failures. Multiple, simultaneous bank failures could be catastrophic for the financial system.

It’s unlikely that the Fed, FDIC, and a consortium of the largest banks can rescue hundreds of compromised commercial banks at once.

Pandemic-accelerated troubles in the CRE market may take more than a decade to resolve.

Increasing office space vacancies linked to remote and hybrid work could extend price declines and deepen losses for lenders in this space. Most empty or underutilized office space is too costly to convert to residential or other uses and will require deeper price concessions. As leases can stretch to 10 years before they are due for renewal, it may take years for the office space market to clear.

A house of cards, constructed in a hurricane zone. Fruits of the 2007-2008 financial crisis where many cans were kicked down the road.

[Grayling813]

It's Likely Going to Be a Rough Day on Wall Street
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvesp ... y-n2642971

Wall Street is likely to be a bloodbath today. The first warning signs were on Friday, culminating on Sunday night when all * broke loose in Asia. The Nikkei had its worst day since 1987, sinking nearly 4,000 points. It suspended trading after sinking nearly eight percent. South Korea’s stock exchange halted all sell orders as a looming wave of brutality is expected to hit Wall Street this morning. We’ll update this post accordingly, but a drubbing on the New York Stock Exchange shouldn’t surprise anyone. Also, don’t look at your 401ks

[The Annoyed Man]

I recall this thread from 2018: https://texaschlforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=89103

I bought around $1100 worth of Etherium in early 2018, at an average price of $704.00/ETH. I sold it all last month for about $5,000. I just checked the value of ETH a few minutes ago, and it has dipped quite a bit in the past day, sort of paralleling the stock market. However, the price right now is still twice my original investment. The only reason I cashed out was that I badly needed the cash. Otherwise, like any other good investment, I’d have left it alone to continue gaining value over the long term.

[Rafe]

At 14:35 Eastern the Dow is down an even 1,000 (abt. 2.5%). NASDAQ down 607 (abt. 3.6%). Gold is up about $37 on the day.

The dems and the media will blame Trump.

Edited to add: The S&P is currently down 3.3%. At a "Level 1" drop of 7% trading is paused for 15 minutes. If it gets to--heaven forbid--a 20% drop all trading is halted for the day.

[Paladin]

Kamala Crash

Foreign investors are selling Japanese stocks due to concerns that the U.S. may be heading for a recession, said Naka Matsuzawa, chief strategist at Nomura Securities. “The fall is not really happening due to Japan-specific reasons,” he said. “Markets are still trying to find the bottom.”

He said he is taking a “wait-and-see approach until U.S. tech stocks show some kind of resilience.” He does not foresee a global recession, and said markets will be volatile until the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers rates. Investors are pricing in a cut by September.