November 6th, 2012

[pbwalker]

Idle curiosity on my part, but I'm wondering...

In your heart of hearts, who do you think is going to win the general election in November? Not what you *want*, but honestly who will win. I'd love to hear some of your opinions.

WIth the GOP is such disarray at the moment, I just don't see the GOP pulling it out. The left OWNS the marketing spin on everything. It seems the right can't gain a hold of that. The left is cutthroat, and the right just seems to take it. Maybe it's me, but I think the right needs to start biting instead of barking. Hit them where it hurts. Lay off the 'holier than thou' legislation and hit Obama where it hurts. The economy!

So, I'm calling it. Obama will win 4 more. It pains me to say it, but it's what my gut tells me.

What scares me most is that Obama will have nothing to worry about when it comes to implementing all the policies he wants to. He won't have to worry about being reelected. I see Gun Control ending up in the forefront.

[Oldgringo]

I'm afraid that you're right. As TAM wrote a little while back, the GOP is...well, uh, just ain't gettin' the message. The message is the economy, it is not abortion, religion or what goes on in the privacy of our homes and lives.

Oh well, I'm in the September of my years, you young Turks better tighten it up a bit.

[chasfm11]

I suspect that the outcome of the election is going to hinge on the perceived status of the economy including gas prices. I cannot imagine an Obama re-election if the gas price actually gets to $5-6 as a National average. A huge stock market crash would have the same effect.

Absent those kinds of problems, I'd say his re-election is a done deal. There is too much momentum in that direction.

[gdanaher]

Political attitudes of the nation generally resemble a bell curve, just like the one your college stat teachers taught you about with respect in IQ, test grades, job performance, and a lot of other things. For anyone to win, Democrat or Republican, they are going to have to inspire those folks in the middle to turn out, support their candidate, and vote. The Republicans, meaning the viable Republican presidential candidates, have all made an effort to court the extreme end of the party--the Tea Party folks, and those who think that the Tea Party is too liberal. They have spent their capital on fudging birth control at the expense of female health, they have given lip service to balancing the budget but not one of them has offered a useful plan to do so. (perhaps Paul, but then, what are the chances?) They blamed the current president on high unemployment even though the economy was in the crapper a year before the last election yet shun the possibility that the administration could have anything at all to do with the recovery. They have spun wheels attempting in several states to mandate that voters must have state issued photo identification, even though there is often no way to guarantee that said photo ID belongs to a citizen, leaving the elderly without a franchise. Abscentee voting was totally overlooked by the Texas legislature. The end result is that they are losing a large percentage of female voters who can see through the shallow rhetoric into the sexist attitude that it is, and dumping any chance at the Hispanic vote if it ever existed to begin with. The offended may not vote Democratic though many will. Most will stay home, not wanting to offend the party by switching. The red states will stay red, the blue states will stay blue, and because of their arrogance, the swing states will vote blue because Republicans have made life under a Republican administration too scary not to vote it down. Not a single Republican candidate currently inspires excitement to the extent that the populace would turn out on a snowy day in unprecedented numbers to vote for them. And the party has played with scare tactics it would seem--Obamacare as we all know it. But they don't offer any hard numbers to explain why it is evil---just talk about those evil Democrats. The folks in the middle, in the center of that bell curve are catching on to the crap and want to know the facts.Then they can make their own educated decisions, rather than relying upon the talking heads with red and blue hats.

[Razgriz]

If nothing significant changes, Obama is going to win (again). There were only two candidates who I thought could take the election, and they are Cain and Paul, Cain bowed out and Paul isn't looking so great in the race. As Gdanaher said, we have to take voters from the middle (even the left if possible) and every other candidate is saying things that are quite frankly scaring the independents towards Obama, which I thought was going to be hard to do, but it turns out that the GOP can scare anyone away without even trying.

If we want to win another election, maybe we should look back at what the last guy who won a presidential election for the Republicans did:
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[Charles L. Cotton]

The Republicans appear to be in disarray, but that's caused by the primaries. When there is one candidate, things will come together and we'll have a horse race. In my view, if things remain the same, Obama cannot win. The economy is terrible, gas prices are the lead article on many TV news programs and even his strongest supporters from 2008 are disenchanted. A Supreme Court loss on ObamaCare will not help him either, if the result goes the way most constitutional experts believe it will. A Republican win is hardly a lock! Everyone needs to work to defeat the worst President in this country's history. This means getting active in the campaign process, not just verbalizing support for the Republican candidate.

Equally important is Republican control of the Senate and maintaining a large majority in the House. If we can take the Senate, then it help to blunt an Obama victory, although he has proven he cares nothing about the Constitution and will exceed his authority with executive orders and "recess appointments,"

Chas.

[chasfm11]

The Republicans appear to be in disarray, but that's caused by the primaries. When there is one candidate, things will come together and we'll have a horse race. In my view, if things remain the same, Obama cannot win. The economy is terrible, gas prices are the lead article on many TV news programs and even his strongest supporters from 2008 are disenchanted. A Supreme Court loss on ObamaCare will not help him either, if the result goes the way most constitutional experts believe it will. A Republican win is hardly a lock! Everyone needs to work to defeat the worst President in this country's history. This means getting active in the campaign process, not just verbalizing support for the Republican candidate.

Equally important is Republican control of the Senate and maintaining a large majority in the House. If we can take the Senate, then it help to blunt an Obama victory, although he has proven he cares nothing about the Constitution and will exceed his authority with executive orders and "recess appointments,"

Chas.

I really want to believe that your assessment is correct and that Obama cannot win a second term. As bad as all of the other problems with executive orders, etc. are it is the likelihood of at least two appointments to the Supreme Court in a 2nd Obama term that gives me nightmares. Even if the GOP takes the Senate, it seems likely that the balance on court will tip in the wrong direction.

I view a Supreme Court loss on Obamacare far from a lock as well. The shift to the "Necessary and Proper" defense may collect Judge Scalia's vote and defeat the challenge. I truly believe that the full implementation of Obamacare alone with kill the US economy and cause rationed healthcare for seniors. I will be on Medicare this year and am not optimistic about my ability to get proper medical treatment in 2013 if Obama is re-elected.

[gdanaher]

You'd think that after shooting yourself in the foot you'd discover the discomfort and not do it again, but those folks at the top of the heap just keep repeating bad behavior. I was talking to a bunch of guys the other evening--essentially a bull session-- and nearly everyone was of the same mind in regard to the latest women's health disaster. The Republicans are taking a do or die stand on this matter and are munging abortion with birth control with women's health, and we know what that means. The end result of our discussion was that they can't seem to figure out how the governor can just come up with 30 million bucks when he can't fund the existing programs nor education nor DPS, nor transportation under the last budget, and has the state park system asking for donations. Then too, these guys have wives, and some of them have mothers, and the women are, well, irritated at the sorry approach the Republian heirarchy has taken toward women's health issues. There's a way to split out abortion from everything else, but my goodness, if the Republicans want to win an election they are going to need the female vote, and 5 months before the general election is not the best time to alienate the voters. Most folks seem to get it better than the candidates know. Unemployment is slowly getting better, fuel prices are a global supply and demand issue due in part to the Indian and Chinese economies, and folks want women to have decent prenatal care because if they don't, the result often is a child with huge, expensive, problems. Pay me now or pay me later. The Republican party folks have been listening to the wrong mouths, and the result will be a defeat in November.

[G26ster]

In march 2008, McCain led both Obama and Clinton by a significant margin in many polls, and Clinton led Obama by a significant margin. 8 months out from an election is a lifetime in politics. Here's a quote from the March 19, 2008 Gallup Poll:

"John McCain may be benefiting in the short-term from the highly charged Democratic race." Substitute Obama for McCain, and Republican for Democratic. Fits today's battle in the GOP primaries. This march 2008 poll is food for thought. Trying to predict an election 8 months out is just fodder for talking heads.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105205/gallu ... obama.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[fishman]

Voter ID sure would help. If people just look at what he's done, and hasn't done, and vote accordingly it would be a GOP landslide.Once the GOP has a nomination I think Obama will be attacked with facts and HIS failed policy's.

[gdanaher]

Voter ID sure would help. If people just look at what he's done, and hasn't done, and vote accordingly it would be a GOP landslide.Once the GOP has a nomination I think Obama will be attacked with facts and HIS failed policy's.

What ever happened to the good old days, when folks voted FOR someone instead of AGAINST someone. I can think of more than a couple POTUSs that probably shouldn't have been elected and wound up stinking up the joint. Guys like Gingrich who are full of hate are particularly troubling. Need to have candidates who can spell out what they will do and how they will do it in detail. Those seem to be quite rare these days, as are 'statesmen'.

[Slowplay]

The lib media and other shills for the Obama re-election crusade want desperately to keep the narrative on divisive "issues" and away from Obama's job performance over the last three plus years. Unless, of course, they are fawning over misleading data such as the unemployment rate. Then, they will try to make sure there's enough window dressing to hide the true mess we're in now (and how much worse we'll end up on our current path).

You can bet the unemployment rate will be a recurring trumpeted statistic to show how Obama's policies are working. Some mention the shrinking labor force to put the rate in better perspective, but logically, you'd think more people working would help reduce the massive deficit (but it's not). Shouldn't tax receipts really increase for such an improvement in the unemployment rate?

The average unemployment rate over the first five months of fiscal 2012 (Oct 2011 - Feb 2012): 8.5%
The average unemployment rate over the first five months of fiscal 2011 (Oct 2010 - Feb 2011): 9.4%

Wow!! That does seem pretty impressive - significant drop in unemployment rate. Now, here's the Federal Tax Receipts for Individual Income Taxes for the same periods:

Individual income tax receipts during the first five months of fiscal 2012: $425 billion
Individual income tax receipts during the first five months of fiscal 2011: $423 billion

Less than a 1% increase in tax receipts from all these 'jobs that have been created.' Doesn't seem like much of an improvement in employment, does it?

Data was taken from Bureau of Labor Statistics & Dept. of Treasury - Fiscal Management Service reports.

[fishman]

I'm voting for whom ever I choose, and my vote will not be swayed by anyone. With that said I will vote to git rid of the Idiot that hates Texas, wants $7.00 gasoline, everyone driving something like a prius, distribution of wealth, wants to tell everyone what to eat, and how their religion should pay for contraceptives, even though there is suppose to be separation between church and state. Should I go on because I can, all day long.

[gdanaher]

As to voter ID, the only documentation I've ever needed to show for a drivers license was a social security card, which isn't supposed to be used for id purposes, to prove I didn't owe any child support. They didn't want to see my US passport, or the identification that would show I served in a foreign nation or anything. But they have a picture of me. And it seems that non-citizens (I'd say aliens but I don't want to offend anyone) can get a license with a little effort and stamina, so it is no proof of anything. Then the issue gets to the elderly. My MIL is 86 and actually still drives so she has a picture ID. Not everyone at that age is ambulatory but if they are still breathing, they still have constitutional rights to vote. The local DPS office issues numbers when you come through the door and it can take a couple of hours to get called. Elderly folks just wanting an ID card shouldn't have to wait that long, likely pay a fee for it (poll tax is unconstitutional), just so they can vote. Nextly, not every community has a DPS office that issues ID cards. The last number I saw had the list of counties WITHOUT an office at 81, which is to say that if you live in one of these counties you are going to have to travel some distance for an ID card just to exercise your right to vote. I can see why the courts have struck this down. The fix would be to create and man mobile DPS offices that could work out of a bus and cruise the state, community to community, and get everyone photographed. Finally, I can sign up my two dogs to vote, sign those cards and get them registered, and then send a request that at the time of the election we will all be out of town and need to vote using an absentee ballot. They will send it out to us all and we can vote by mail. No picture ID involved at all, and anyone in the world can do it. Why, you don't even need a voter card--there are places you can do it on line via the state government sites. And you can thank the Texas Legislature for that screwup.

[Slowplay]

Finally, I can sign up my two dogs to vote, sign those cards and get them registered, and then send a request that at the time of the election we will all be out of town and need to vote using an absentee ballot. They will send it out to us all and we can vote by mail. No picture ID involved at all, and anyone in the world can do it.

Yes, we get it - you're against the voter ID law.