First, do this: Without taking a lot of time to think about it, what age range would you consider to be "children"?
You probably saw the news yesterday that a procession of 52 school buses carrying photos and belongings of school shooting victims first drove to Ted Cruz's home in Houston, and then circled around his downtown office protesting for tougher gun laws to prevent the death of children due to gun violence. Here's a photo from inside one of the buses. See if the kids depicted match your ages for "children." I'll bet they do:
The protest has the gall to put black memorial banners on the buses and label each bus, "NRA Children's Museum." See their website, if you want, at https://www.nrachildrensmuseum.com/home, complete with a photo of how, if they have the space, they like to arrange the 52 buses to represent an AR-15.
The front-and-center statement on their website: "Since 2020, firearms have overtaken car accidents to become the leading cause of death in children, taking over 4368 lives."
During his (teleprompted) speech last Monday, Joe Biden's core talking point was, and I quote (though without the slurred speech): "Guns are the number one killer of children in the United States of America. Let me say that again: Guns are the number one killer of children in the United States. More than car accidents. More than cancer."
So, are those statements true? Turns out, as you've probably guessed, it depends on how you define "children."
Up front, we need to be clear that there are no such mortality figures for 2022, and in fact last May 19 The New England Journal of Medicine published a very brief letter to the editor, "Current Causes of Death in Children and Adolescents in the United States," which displayed numbers aggregated from the CDC for 2020 data. Searching high and low, it seems we as yet have no definitive mortality figures for 2021 yet, either.
See also, "Fact Check: Joe Biden Says Guns Are Biggest Killer of American Children," Newsweek, July 13, 2022, which rules that the president's statement is true. Newsweek references an April 28, 2022, publication by The Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions, which also reviews 2020 data.
So in front of the hyperbole, we have to understand that the "NRA Children's Museum" claims and the statement of our illustrious president are based on 2020 data.
This push to never let a tragedy go to waste comes right after the Uvalde school shooting, by an 18-year-old, who coldly executed 19 10-year-old kids and two teachers. After the very publicized deaths of a classroom full of 10-year-olds in an elementary school, when the president goes on national media and says that "Guns are the number one killer of children in the United States," what age group do you think the public is envisioning?
Yeah. No. Turns out the clue is in the title of that New England Journal of Medicine publication, "Current Causes of Death in Children and Adolescents in the United States." Let's look at what the CDC itself shows as the leading causes of child death by age on its FastStats "Child Health" webpage, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/child-health.htm, note that the data stops as of age 14:
Wait. Where are all those gun deaths if [repeat the line] "Guns are the number one killer of children in the United States"? Turns out the data the president and the anti-gunners are touting really don't show gun deaths as a specific, significant factor until we get to age 15 and over...and the data he and the gun grabbers are representing go all the way up to age 19. How many 19-year-olds do you look at and think "child"? In fact, the Johns Hopkins publication lumps the ages from 1 to 14, then 15 to 24:The CDC wrote: Children aged 1-4 yearsChildren aged 5-9 years
- Accidents (unintentional injuries)
- Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities
- Assault (homicide)
Children aged 10-14 years
- Accidents (unintentional injuries)
- Cancer
- Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities
- Accidents (unintentional injuries)
- Intentional self-harm (suicide)
- Cancer
I'm struggling to think of any school mass shootings in recent memory that targeted predominantly Black schools. We had the tragedy last May in Buffalo where another unhinged 18-year-old shooter--this time clearly a hate crime--committed the atrocity, killing 10 Black people and injuring three others. But the victims ranged in age from 32 to 86; all but the 32-year-old was over 50. And in June 2015 yet another unhinged racist, this time 21 years old, murdered nine Black worshipers at the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina. The youngest victim was 26; the next youngest 41; and the oldest 87.
The racial disparity in that Johns Hopkins graph in gun homicide rates per 100,000 is stark. But if the volume isn't in the 1 to 14 age group, which it clearly is not, it begs the question of Biden's blanket reference to "children."
The data are stale from the government's Office of Justice Program's National Gang Center, but for the period 1996 through 2011 the percentage of active, criminal gang members under 18 was, on average, almost 40%. The 18 and over category still includes, of course, two years of what Biden referred to as "children," and we can probably infer fairly safely that the 19 and under demographic makes up about half of all criminal gang members:
For 2012 the estimate was that there were 30,700 known gangs operating in the U.S., roughly equal to the 30,800 in 1996, with a decline to a low of 24,700 in 2000. Estimated membership numbers held fairly steady over those years:
About 850,000 estimated active members of known criminal gangs; if half of them are 19 years old and younger, then we have around 425,000 in that age group. That's less than the total population of El Paso, but more than Arlington, Corpus Christi, Plano, or Laredo. A sizeable number.
With fewer and fewer police agencies--particularly those in large metropolitan areas run by liberal democrats--opting in to sharing data for the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Program, unfortunately those data are becoming less and less useful. The last complete-year data set for the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) is for 2020, so at least it correlates to the information from the referenced New England Journal of Medicine and Johns Hopkins publications.
The age ranges for the NIBRS don't go below age 10, but for all homicides in 2020, a total of 11,635 (as reported to the FBI NIBRS), 49.5% of the time the offenders were 29 years old or younger; 15.2% of the time they were 19 years old or younger. This roughly approximates the victims' ages, as well: 43% 29 or younger and 12.2% 19 or younger.
Addressing the notion that school shootings are rampant and pervasive, the FBI's 2020 statistics on where the victim was killed are illuminating. By ranking of all homicides, with many omitted for space:
1) Residence or Home: 49.6%
2) Highway/Alley/Street/Sidewalk: 25.3%
3) Parking Garage/Lot: 8.4%
4) Unknown: 3.2%
5) Field/Woods: 2.1%
6) Hotel/Motel: 2.0%
10) Park/Playground: 0.94%
21) Church/Synagogue/Temple/Mosque: 0.12%
25) School Elementary/Secondary: 0.086%
35) School College/University: 0.038%
Based on the NIBRS data, about 35.1% of all homicides were directly linked to a simultaneous crime, from weapon law violations to robbery to narcotics violations.
The detailed, by-weapon data from the NIBRS for 2020 show a total of 12,144 homicides on file. Of those, 71.6% involved use of a firearm, and 3.34% involved the identified use of a rifle, semi-auto or not (however, only 77 of those were identified as a semi-auto firearm)...with the caveat that in some instances the implement was identified only as "Firearm."
For 2021, thanks in large part to the unrestricted and uncontrolled Biden Border and the increasing danger posed by fentanyl, the CDC reported that the U.S. had exceeded 100,000 overdose deaths for the first time ever, reaching a total of 107,000, an increase of 15% over the previous record. Deaths attributed to fentanyl alone topped 71,000.
Estimates are all over the place with no definitive answer, but at the low end estimates are that there 434 million firearms in civilian hands in the U.S., with about 20 million AR-15s and variants, with over 71 million pistol magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds and over 80 million rifle magazines capable of holding 30 or more rounds. Others have speculated that the total number of civilian-owned firearms could be closer to 600 million, and that the Stoner AR variants account for as many as 118 million, with AK variants between 30 and 50 million. I find the latter much easier to believe than the 20 million figure.
Yet, despite the number of modern sporting rifles legally purchased and owned, FBI NIBRS data show that a total of 406 homicide incidents in 2020 involved use of a rifle of any kind. With 406 homicide incidents by rifle and 107,000 deaths by drug overdose, clearly the focus on legislation, control, and enforcement needs to be on rifles. That fits the left's agenda and the ultimate desire to have a completely unarmed and compliant population. The massive number of overdose deaths due to the porous Biden Border? Not a problem! The left wants the illegal immigrants to continue coming here in droves so that they can presumably weight the vote to the dem's side of the equation.
Crime is the problem, not guns. It's the perpetrator, not the tool. Gun crimes are actually occurring with the greatest volumes predominantly in cities that have the most stringent and restrictive gun laws. Preliminary information says that homicides have increased 7% nationwide in 2021 over 2020. By total number of homicides those cities are, in order: Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Washington DC. For 2021, Chicago reported 797 homicides, up from 771 in 2020; New York was, relatively speaking, a distant 2nd with 485 homicides, up from 468 in 2020.
There are more than 12.3 drug overdose deaths in the U.S. for every homicide with a firearm of any kind. There are 8.2 deaths just from fentanyl for every firearm homicide.
Enforce current laws. Fix the border. Crack down on gang violence. Boost funding for police departments, don't defund them. Get rid of soft-on-crime prosecutors and judges; force them to work with law enforcement, not willfully hinder it. It's open season for criminals in many cities because they know they'll be able to walk away with nothing but a wrist-slap, even for serious, violent offenses. Improve mental health services and their availability. Don't put parents who want the best for their kids on a federal watch list and ignore the nimrods who continually post violent and threatening material to social media. Try it the other way around.
Clean up crime and you'll dramatically lower deaths, homicides from firearms included. Attacking the Constitution of the United States of America and the Bill of Rights is not the answer. Over 100 million modern sporting rifles that are in law-abiding hands have, unjustifiably, killed fewer people than Alec Baldwin has. The tool is not causing deaths. Crime is causing deaths. Felons aren't obtaining firearms legally by strolling into a licensed dealer and asking for advice on what gun to use in an upcoming gang blooding; they're stealing the guns.
This was an independent fact check of President Biden's statement, "Guns are the number one killer of children in the United States." It is not the opinion of the Texas CHL Forum or any of its owners, operators, or moderators.
My verdict is: false. The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child defines child as, "A human being below the age of 18 years unless under the law applicable to the child, majority is attained earlier." And the statistics used to support the statement used individuals as old as 19.
However, in America, 15 U.S. Code, Chapter 91, §6501 says, "The term 'child' means an individual under the age of 13." In the U.S., a person can petition for emancipation--meaning assuming legal adulthood--at age 16. In terms of the law you are an adult at 18, though for crimes like murder 16- and 17-year-olds can be automatically tried as adults. The gun homicide rates published by the CDC and Johns Hopkins University make it starkly clear that guns are not the number one killer of children in this country.