Swine flu

[Skiprr]

The World Health Organization yesterday upgraded the situation to Phase 5. I'll let you go to http://www.who.int and peek for yourselves. You may want to visit http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/ also.

I think we can afford to joke around a bit...but I don't think we can afford to be dismissive.

The fact is that H1N1 is a transgenic virus, one whose mutated DNA has allowed it to cross between species, and one that has so far seemed to be highly contagious in humans. The bird flu ain't got nothin' on this.

That this is a brand-new virus--current point of origin places it in La Gloria, Mexico, north of Oaxaca, with the earliest-known infection dating to April 2--means that nobody in the world has an immune system that can target this specific virus.

If we start out healthy, our immune systems can adapt to this new virus and our symptoms may be little different than a bad case of plain ol' flu. But this flu is highly infectious because no one has immune systems to address it.

I'm just saying, don't dismiss swine flu as only media hype.

[Excaliber]

The World Health Organization yesterday upgraded the situation to Phase 5. I'll let you go to http://www.who.int and peek for yourselves. You may want to visit http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/ also.

I think we can afford to joke around a bit...but I don't think we can afford to be dismissive.

The fact is that H1N1 is a transgenic virus, one whose mutated DNA has allowed it to cross between species, and one that has so far seemed to be highly contagious in humans. The bird flu ain't got nothin' on this.

That this is a brand-new virus--current point of origin places it in La Gloria, Mexico, north of Oaxaca, with the earliest-known infection dating to April 2--means that nobody in the world has an immune system that can target this specific virus.

If we start out healthy, our immune systems can adapt to this new virus and our symptoms may be little different than a bad case of plain ol' flu. But this flu is highly infectious because no one has immune systems to address it.

I'm just saying, don't dismiss swine flu as only media hype.

Skiprr, you're right on target with your post. A virus that becomes transgenic can easily and rapidly mutate to a much more virulent and dangerous form. I've participated in a lot of training for dealing with these issues, and I'm watching the situation carefully. According to the best information I can find, we don't have a full blown crisis on our hands yet, but failing to make self sufficiency preparations at this point would, in my opinion, be taking an unacceptable risk for the small costs involved. If the situation does go south, it will do so in a hurry, and those without fully executed preparedness plans will likely find themselves out of both luck and time.

I personally hope the virus fizzles and goes away, and there's a reasonable chance it will. If that happens, it may still come back in the same or different form at a later time, perhaps when the cold weather returns. If it does fizzle, those of us who have prepared just won't have to fill the grocery cart as full as usual for a few weeks. It doesn't cost anything extra, so I can't see a downside to it, and the upside if things get worse presents a much prettier picture than the alternatives.

[Abraham]

Certainly it's serious, but unless your immune system is compromised (and yes, some are) or very young or old, it's quite survivable.

The child who died in Houston had underlining health issues above and beyond having the flu. This led to his death.

Being very young or old and getting swine flu isn't an automatic death sentence.

Honestly, the sky isn't falling.

[Rex B]

Here is the best expert information I have seen on this topic.

Go to http://www.TED.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and click on the Laurie Garret video.

This is an excellent site, with great leading edge information from some very sharp people.

[TheArmedFarmer]

Certainly it's serious, but unless your immune system is compromised (and yes, some are) or very young or old, it's quite survivable.

Actually, the indications may be that the opposite is true. Those with the healthiest immune systems may be the ones at highest risk, just as it was with the pandemic of 1918.

[JackRR]

Here is the best expert information I have seen on this topic.

Go to http://www.TED.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and click on the Laurie Garret video.

This is an excellent site, with great leading edge information from some very sharp people.

I listened to most of it, this flu isnt anything compared to the H5N1(bird flu) which has a 55% mortality rate. Luckily that flu has a hard time passing between humans.

[Abraham]

TheArmedFarmer,

I received my info from an MD yesterday by way of 740 am radio. Was he merely being positive in light of public hysteria? Beats me...

Although, from a purely common sense perspective, those with healthy immune systems being more at risk sounds off to me.

Did your source elaborate on the mechanics of healthy people being more at risk?

[nitrogen]

TheArmedFarmer,

I received my info from an MD yesterday by way of 740 am radio. Was he merely being positive in light of public hysteria? Beats me...

Although, from a purely common sense perspective, those with healthy immune systems being more at risk sounds off to me.

Did your source elaborate on the mechanics of healthy people being more at risk?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That's the mechanics.

[TheArmedFarmer]

Thanks nitrogen, you beat me to it.

[tfrazier]

Wow. I quit smoking four weeks ago today. I hope I'm not too healthy now...

The zombies return from 1976...

[youtube]http://youtube.com/watch?v=9iJLpe1tZl8[/youtube]

[Abraham]

Well then, it's the couch for me, no more exercise and plenty of fatty foods, and yeah, I'm going to start smoking 5 packs of cigarettes a day. Oh wait, don't want that liver acting like it's getting left out - booze and lots of it!

That should wreck my health for greater survivability.

[TheArmedFarmer]

Well then, it's the couch for me, no more exercise and plenty of fatty foods, and yeah, I'm going to start smoking 5 packs of cigarettes a day. Oh wait, don't want that liver acting like it's getting left out - booze and lots of it!

That should wreck my health for greater survivability.

Your better bet would be to avoid getting it in the first place.

[bryang]

Our president has just released this photo from the CDC showing the type of dangerous behavior to avoid in light of our swine flu concerns.



No more pig licking!

-geo

[tfrazier]

...No more pig licking! -geo

Well just great. There go my plans for the weekend!

[stevie_d_64]

Got this update.

Dr. Marcus Gitterle, M.D. 600 N Union Ave
Christus Santa Rosa Hospital - New Braunfels
New Braunfels, TX 78130

Specialties
Family Practice

Emergency Medicine

After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community leaders and school officials in Comal County and Hays County, Heather suggested I send an update to my patients in the area, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and Health Department is different from what you are hearing in the media. Some of you know some of this, but I will just list what facts I know.

- The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to symptom onset

- Virus spreads more than 7 days after symptom onset (possibly as long as 9 days) (this is more unusual than ordinary flu)

- Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no “herd immunity,” so the “attack rate” is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatic. That is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The “clinical attack rate” estimation from CDC and WHO may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this to those outside of the medical fields.

- The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico, and there are folks on ventilators here in the US, right now. This has not been in the media, but a 23 month old in Houston is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life. In Mexico, these folks might have died already, but here in the US, folks are getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready access to ventilators. What this means is that within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed.

- Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal County have had more than 70 contacts before diagnosis as a minimum figure.

- There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not “possible” cases — actual), than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each “confirmed” case right now.

- During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a WHO, Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so far.. We are in uncharted territory.

- They are advising President Obama to declare an emergency sometime in the next 72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn’t, I will be surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days minimum.

- I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. Outdoor activities are not as likely to lead to infection.. It is contained areas and close contact that are the biggest risk.

- Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will have to be carefully managed for law enforcement and first responders as it is not enough to treat the likely number of infections when this is full-blown. I don’t think there is a big supply of Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I would take Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the affected tissue than Tamiflu.

(I am not buying into this bit of news...More than likely this is an attempt to keep a run on this medication down, that is why the stockpiles are in undisclosed locations under guard)

- You should avoid going to the ER if you think you have been exposed or are symptomatic. ER’s south of here are becoming overwhelmed today— and I mean that — already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.

- It appears that this flu produces a distinctive “hoarseness” in many victims. The symptoms, in general, match other flu’s; namely, sore throat, body aches, headache, cough, and fever. What is not too common in regular flu cycles is vomiting and diarrhea which seems to be associated with this, further dehydrating victims. Some have all these symptoms, while others may have only one or two.

- N-Acetyl-Cysteine — a nutritional supplement available at the health food store or Wimberley Pharmacy, has been shown to prevent or lessen the severity of influenza. I suggest 1200mg, twice a day for adults, and 600mg twice a day in kids over 12. It would be hard to get kids under 12 to take it, but you could try opening the capsules and putting it on yogurt. For 40 pounds and up, 300-600 mg twice a day, for less than 40 pounds, half that.

- Oscillococinum, a homeopathic remedy, has been vindicated as quite effective in a large clinical trial in Europe, with an H1N1 variant. You can buy this at Hill Country Natural Foods, or the Wimberley Pharmacy.

I will try to keep everyone posted if I have any new information. Meanwhile, don’t be afraid, stay informed and try to avoid infection. The fewer people infected the easier it will be for our public officials to manage it.

If any of my patients become ill, or suspect infection, call the office, do not come without calling and DO NOT go to the ER. If one member in a family is identified all would be given the Tamiflu or Relenza (that is normal course of action) if there is enough distributed to fill prescriptions. Public health stated that one family member identified or suspected to have contracted the flu it will require the whole family to be quarantined in their own home until enough time has passed for the remaining household to have contracted it or be considered infection free ( 7 to 10 days per person). As another suggestion, if any member of the family is on routine medication- fill those prescriptions now. Have plenty fluids, Motrin, soups, etc available and make contingency plans in case your family is affected.

Take this for what it is worth...The homepathic treatments "bolded" above in the information here seem to work, but only when you start getting symptomatic...It does not do any good to dose up before that happens...Those items can be found at GNC's or HEB grocery stores...The L-Cysteine should be mixed with yogurt for the two daily doses...Works like a spoonful of sugar in this case...

With any advice, check with your doctor...

I did, and they said there is some merit to this...

There will be a run on this stuff by this weekend...