My Op-Ed in Today's Houston Chronicle

[RPB]

UT Austin total enrollment for the 2010 spring semester is 48,167,
Attendance at ACL 65,000 per day for 3 days
http://www.utexas.edu/news/2010/03/17/s ... ment_2010/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Probably a Higher percentage of CHLs at ACL due to age.

I posted the only APD incidents reported here
viewtopic.php?f=90&t=38726" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(From the database, link contained on http://www.ci.austin.tx.us/police/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )

[Charles L. Cotton]

Please note the CHL holders are seven times less likely to commit a crime than the general population, not five times. This number is based upon the analysis I had done in 2008 and it is based upon the figures fro 2006. I have not had the work updated to include 2007 yet, but the raw numbers indicate CHL's will do even better compared to the general population.

The only reason I bring this up is that the "seven times better" figure has long been used by Gov. Perry, several Senators and House members, including the 2009 "authors" of the campus-carry bills. I don't want the media or opponents of campus-carry to argue that our track record is poorer now than in 2009.

Chas.

[Douva]

Please note the CHL holders are seven times less likely to commit a crime than the general population, not five times. This number is based upon the analysis I had done in 2008 and it is based upon the figures fro 2006. I have not had the work updated to include 2007 yet, but the raw numbers indicate CHL's will do even better compared to the general population.

The only reason I bring this up is that the "seven times better" figure has long been used by Gov. Perry, several Senators and House members, including the 2009 "authors" of the campus-carry bills. I don't want the media or opponents of campus-carry to argue that our track record is poorer now than in 2009.

Chas.

Does that number include all crimes or just violent crimes? We've been using "five times less likely" (or one fifth as likely), based on our analysis of murder and negligent homicide convictions from 2002-2006. But if you've got the data to show that "seven times less likely" (or one seventh as likely) is more accurate, we'd obviously prefer to use that, since it's a more compelling argument.

[psijac]

BrSmith is silly his arguement "law of averages" that guns shooting will increase with the increase of guns is fundamentally flawed. According to his logic we should should ban all police from having guns. Then we will all be SUPER SAFE!

You op ed was very articulate but nothing i have not heard before. Anti's are still not ready to listen, they have the same emotional counter arguments they have been using for years. It feels like we are running around in circles.

I was in high school during the colombine incident. The next year they made us to lockdown drills. Even then i knew on a fundamental level waiting quietly in a dark room for a mad man did nothing to make anyone safer

[Charles L. Cotton]

Please note the CHL holders are seven times less likely to commit a crime than the general population, not five times. This number is based upon the analysis I had done in 2008 and it is based upon the figures fro 2006. I have not had the work updated to include 2007 yet, but the raw numbers indicate CHL's will do even better compared to the general population.

The only reason I bring this up is that the "seven times better" figure has long been used by Gov. Perry, several Senators and House members, including the 2009 "authors" of the campus-carry bills. I don't want the media or opponents of campus-carry to argue that our track record is poorer now than in 2009.

Chas.

Does that number include all crimes or just violent crimes? We've been using "five times less likely" (or one fifth as likely), based on our analysis of murder and negligent homicide convictions from 2002-2006. But if you've got the data to show that "seven times less likely" (or one seventh as likely) is more accurate, we'd obviously prefer to use that, since it's a more compelling argument.

The "seven times" number is all crimes, as reported by DPS. Murder is almost seven times (6.6) for 2006. Negl. homicide should not be included in any calculation because the numbers are absurdly low for both CHL's and the general population. (In 2006, CHL's = 1; general population = 45). If you combine murder and negl. homicide, you artificially increase the CHL crime rate, albeit still very low.

We (NRA, TSRA, me, Governor, Senators, House Members) have use the "seven times" number because 1) it is an overall number; and 2) it is conservative. If I/we were looking for the best number possible, we'd use burglary (3800% better), robbery (6310% better), or point out several crimes that have no convictions of CHL's.

Obviously, SCCC can use any numbers it wishes, but I think the "seven times" figure is more representative of the overall great track record CHL's have earned. It's also the number that has been accurately used by key political figures since 2008. If you choose not to use that number, then serious consideration should be given to dropping the negligent homicide and going only with the murder rate which is very close to the "seven times" figure (i.e. 6.6 for 2006). Either way, "we" will continue to use the "seven times" number and it would be better not to have two different figures used in the media and cause confusion with people who don't follow this issue as closely as do we. Also, using "five times" will give our opposition the opportunity to argue that CHL's are less responsible than in prior years and the public won't care about the fact that different crimes were used to get those numbers.

Chas.

[A-R]

douva, great job on the opinion piece. I wrote a letter to the editor of the Austin Statesman after a nonstop barage of anti campus-carry letters were printed in that rag following the public suicide. They ran the letter, but it's only 150 words and I doubt anyone noticed. But a larger opinion piece like yours could grab some attention and sway a few opinions.

Anyway, well written and nice job

[Excaliber]

Very nice job!!