Well, Alex, thankfully, kept South...that didn't keep it from dropping several inches of rain @ my house, but nothing else! That's all I wanted!
Now, it looks like there may be another storm a' brewin!
Nothing is set in stone yet, and we saw how wacky the models were with Alex.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE TODAY. THE LOW IS LOCATED
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...A SMALL RELAXATION OF THESE WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
NNNN
*NRA Endowment Member* | Veteran Vote Adam Kraut for the NRA Board of Directors - http://www.adamkraut.com/
glbedd53 wrote:Didn't we have one a few years back that went from a depression to a cat 1 in under 24 hours?
Hurricane Humberto was a minimal hurricane that formed and intensified faster than any other tropical cyclone on record before landfall. Developing on September 12, 2007, in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone rapidly strengthened and struck High Island, with winds of about 90 mph (150 km/h) early on September 13, 2007.
Cougars are shy, reclusive, and downright mysterious...
And then there's two! This one is appears to be following a path like Alex.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
*NRA Endowment Member* | Veteran Vote Adam Kraut for the NRA Board of Directors - http://www.adamkraut.com/
For those who don't remember or weren't here: Allison arrived after a solid week of heavy rain. She passed over Houston at the beginning of the week, a Tuesday IIRC. The ground was already saturated and there was lots of street flooding that subsided a few hours after the storm had "moved on".
What made Allison so significant was that after she moved north, she u-turned and came back to town, stalling over the city on Friday night. The rain fell for more than 8 hours straight, and it was full blown, thunder and lighting, and rainfall rates measured in feet not inches. The bayous crested and then spilled into the freeway system and then the freeway system crested too.
I remember thinking to myself that perhaps this was the kind of storm Noah watched as the Ark began to float. I know I wasn't the only one thinking in Biblical terms that night.
The water didn't recede until the tide went out in the morning.
It's been said that Allison was a "100 year flood event", meaning such a flood would occur only once in a hundred years. I hope that's true.
And on a chl related note, remember that as the water rose Houston's emergency services were paralyzed. HPD's communications were nonexistent, (great idea housing the radio system in a ground floor building next to a bayou) and the fire dept. had only a few small boats to get around in. So if you needed help you were on your own, or dependant on the kindness of strangers. Luckily this is Houston, and in the words of the late Mr. Marvin Zindler, "The heroes came out of the woodwork". Everywhere I looked that night folks that didn't know each other or even spoke the same language teamed up and saved strangers from drowning, fed the hungry, and warmed the cold. I don't recall any fighting or looting or anarchy. Can you imagine if this had happened in any other Houston sized city?
Edit: The only looting I recall was when some guys swam out to some submerged beer trucks and "rescued" the contents.
Last edited by mctowalot on Sun Jul 04, 2010 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I was just remarking to my wife earlier today about this latest activity in the gulf. The NHC did say this was going to be an "active" year. I hope it's not as "active" as 2008 was.
mctowalot wrote:For those who don't remember or weren't here: Allison arrived after a solid week of heavy rain. She passed over Houston at the beginning of the week, a Tuesday IIRC. The ground was already saturated and there was lots of street flooding that subsided a few hours after the storm had "moved on".
What made Allison so significant was that after she moved north, she u-turned and came back to town, stalling over the city on Friday night. The rain fell for more than 8 hours straight, and it was full blown, thunder and lighting, and rainfall rates measured in feet not inches. The bayous crested and then spilled into the freeway system and then the freeway system crested too.
I remember thinking to myself that perhaps this was the kind of storm Noah watched as the Ark began to float. I know I wasn't the only one thinking in Biblical terms that night.
People in the Houston area might want to check out their home address on http://maps2.tsarp.org/tsarp/ especially if they weren't in Houston - or weren't at that address - during Allison.
A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
Looks like AL95 will be tropical before it goes on land. But it's got its eyes on LA, with the possibility of a solid rain maker for East and North Central Texas.
*NRA Endowment Member* | Veteran Vote Adam Kraut for the NRA Board of Directors - http://www.adamkraut.com/
LarryH wrote:The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore just reported that it has moved onshore and will begin to weaken, but will continue to dump rain on Louisiana.
Yep...just caught that on CNN. And now that storm off the Yucatan isn't as organized. Gotta love the unpredictability of it all...
*NRA Endowment Member* | Veteran Vote Adam Kraut for the NRA Board of Directors - http://www.adamkraut.com/
