Est. 20,000 shoulder-fired heat-seaking missiles missing

[The Annoyed Man]

You are missing the picture. China, Pakistan, and Iran all can fab cheap SAM-7 knock-offs. China specifically will sell you anything for a dollar.
As for Libya, Islamists are now in power and they will buy whatever arms they wish, money is not an issue, and control over said arms is nil.

Yes, but that is a (near) future threat. The currently missing 20,000 missiles are an immediate problem. We cannot afford to ignore what China, Pakistan, and Iran are doing, but neither can we afford to forget about those missing missiles.

[Purplehood]

You are missing the picture. China, Pakistan, and Iran all can fab cheap SAM-7 knock-offs. China specifically will sell you anything for a dollar.
As for Libya, Islamists are now in power and they will buy whatever arms they wish, money is not an issue, and control over said arms is nil.

Yes, but that is a (near) future threat. The currently missing 20,000 missiles are an immediate problem. We cannot afford to ignore what China, Pakistan, and Iran are doing, but neither can we afford to forget about those missing missiles.

We see the Forest AND the Trees...

[speedsix]

This is the consequence of a child playing at international relations in a grown up's world.

...not to give any credit where none is due, we have OFTEN armed our enemies by slathering our "Ally-of-the-week" with our technology, only to have it used against our boys and girls months later...we will never learn...everytime we have "international relations", we seem to be on the bottom...

[E.Marquez]

I have ZERO confidence in a report stating ANY country in one spot has 20,000 Man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS)… I doubt the US Military has 20,000 MANPADs period, let alone in any one part of the country.
Having trained, fired, MANPADS (only drones, but still) it is not a skill, one learns from the Anarchists Cook Book.
The entire assembly wither Russian, (trained, never fired) Chinese ( seen, book trained, never touched) or US,, are not the most robust, require very controlled handling, storage and maintenance. A large portion of the round, targeting assembly, battery pak (for those that have an external pack) will be non functional.
So, the raw number is likely a mistake.
The training is likely not there
The equipment is only going to be partially working.
And Why bother,, a cartel, can buy RIGHT NOW, a MANPAD, if that is what they desire.. one of several flavors, to include US.
United States
 FIM-92 Stinger

Russia
 SA-7 GRAIL 9K32M Strela-2
 SA-14 GREMLIN 9K34 Strela-3
 SA-16 GIMLET 9K310 Igla-1
 SA-18 GROUSE 9M39 Igla

China
 HY-5
 QW-1
 QW-2
 QW-4

Europe
 Javelin
 Mistral
 RBS 70
BUT.. you know what happens if a Cartel shoots down a DEA, Customs, ANY US aircraft? With a MANPADS??? Small parts of Mexico would be leveled in days, great parts cleared with ground troops over the following months.

For that reason, a CARTEL, who can now operate with reasonable impunity and unmolested by US forces, will not make that mistake… Now a True believer terrorist? That’s a different story.

[speedsix]

...I would like to believe that our gooberment would respond like that...but I'd bet everything I own that they wouldn't...Mexico owes us too much money and if they openly default, our economy would collapse...as we've borrowed heavily against their debt to us...the trade treaty and the trucks they allow to drive through Texas tell us how stringently our gooberment will take care of American interests...it would be another cover-up...

[E.Marquez]

...I would like to believe that our gooberment would respond like that...but I'd bet everything I own that they wouldn't...Mexico owes us too much money and if they openly default, our economy would collapse...as we've borrowed heavily against their debt to us...the trade treaty and the trucks they allow to drive through Texas tell us how stringently our gooberment will take care of American interests...it would be another cover-up...

I think, they would “ask us” for our assistance first, publically.
(and be told behind scenes, some cruise missiles may miss their intended targets and end up at who knows what senior government compound containing a senior ranking officials, but as they are cooperating and asking for assistance to kill / capture /eradicate those responsible for the event, the US would make double triple pinky swear sure, we hit more then we missed…probable, most likely)

And no matter the exact response... it will be MUCH more then what there is now... and what is to be gained is nil by the cartels.. They have seen what we are willing to do to a group that attacks us on our land. They don’t want that.. If they thought they could terrorize us into leaving them alone with a downed AC,, like they have terrorized the average citizen in Mexico,,, then ya, they would do it.. But I think, it feels likely they know it’s not a smart move. .. not a good business move.

[teddy salad]

The CNN and Human Rights Watch team which discovered and reported on this case are talking about "dozens" of empty crates. Not sure where 20,000 is coming from. In any case CNN's security blog is saying that evidence of Grinch SA-24s are involved, as well as some SA-7s. Is anyone familiar with these Grinch should-launched missiles? They sound a heckuva lot like Stingers. Which would be bad.

[E.Marquez]

Is anyone familiar with these Grinch should-launched missiles? They sound a heckuva lot like Stingers. Which would be bad.

In the US, it is referred to as a SA-18

[The Annoyed Man]

You are missing the picture. China, Pakistan, and Iran all can fab cheap SAM-7 knock-offs. China specifically will sell you anything for a dollar.
As for Libya, Islamists are now in power and they will buy whatever arms they wish, money is not an issue, and control over said arms is nil.

Yes, but that is a (near) future threat. The currently missing 20,000 missiles are an immediate problem. We cannot afford to ignore what China, Pakistan, and Iran are doing, but neither can we afford to forget about those missing missiles.

We see the Forest AND the Trees...

There is no spoon.

[The Annoyed Man]

I have ZERO confidence in a report stating ANY country in one spot has 20,000 Man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS)… I doubt the US Military has 20,000 MANPADs period, let alone in any one part of the country.
Having trained, fired, MANPADS (only drones, but still) it is not a skill, one learns from the Anarchists Cook Book.
The entire assembly wither Russian, (trained, never fired) Chinese ( seen, book trained, never touched) or US,, are not the most robust, require very controlled handling, storage and maintenance. A large portion of the round, targeting assembly, battery pak (for those that have an external pack) will be non functional.
So, the raw number is likely a mistake.
The training is likely not there
The equipment is only going to be partially working.
And Why bother,, a cartel, can buy RIGHT NOW, a MANPAD, if that is what they desire.. one of several flavors, to include US.
United States
 FIM-92 Stinger

Russia
 SA-7 GRAIL 9K32M Strela-2
 SA-14 GREMLIN 9K34 Strela-3
 SA-16 GIMLET 9K310 Igla-1
 SA-18 GROUSE 9M39 Igla

China
 HY-5
 QW-1
 QW-2
 QW-4

Europe
 Javelin
 Mistral
 RBS 70
BUT.. you know what happens if a Cartel shoots down a DEA, Customs, ANY US aircraft? With a MANPADS??? Small parts of Mexico would be leveled in days, great parts cleared with ground troops over the following months.

For that reason, a CARTEL, who can now operate with reasonable impunity and unmolested by US forces, will not make that mistake… Now a True believer terrorist? That’s a different story.

Bronco, I have no doubt you're probably correct about the cartels, although they have no problem firing on American LEOs on the U.S. side of the border. And you may well be right about the sheer numbers of MANPADS missing. But let's unpack that for a moment. Let's say they got 250 of them, heck, even 150 of them. And lets say that of that number, half actually get deployed to someplace where they can be used to bring down a commercial airliner. That's 75 MANPADS. And let's say that of that 75 deployed, only half get fired. That's 37-38 MANPADS fired. And lets say that they have a hit rate of 50% (reasonable, from the history of the weapon in past conflicts), that's roughly 18 airliners struck. And lets say that of that 18, half of them crash, killing all souls aboard, that's 9 airliners downed with loss of all aboard. And lets say that the average passenger load was 150 passengers and crew, that's a total of 1,350 innocents murdered with that small fraction of 20,000 MANPADS...........not exactly something to be sneezed at.

[E.Marquez]

Yes, agree, and still, the point was,, this is not news, MANPADS have been available ALWAYS, for those looking, with money, and a desire to use them. I don't make light there are now MORE on the black market.. but it does not make a more dangerous world significantly then it was yesterday, or the day before.

If your connected, have illegal cash in the millions to blow, these things were not hard to get, before this stack went missing.. Thats part of the reality of the world I work in.

[speedsix]

...if you could keep the politicians out of the business of waging war, there'd be a lot more decisive action taken when the wrong folks get the good stuff...but how do we make THAT happen?!!!

[tbrown]

Bronco, I have no doubt you're probably correct about the cartels, although they have no problem firing on American LEOs on the U.S. side of the border. And you may well be right about the sheer numbers of MANPADS missing. But let's unpack that for a moment. Let's say they got 250 of them, heck, even 150 of them. And lets say that of that number, half actually get deployed to someplace where they can be used to bring down a commercial airliner.

Why would a jihadist waste a missile shooting down a commercial airliner when they have the chance to bring down the plane carrying the man who singlehandedly brought down Osama bin Laden.

[wheelgun1958]

Maybe they'll work as well as this French rocket.

[youtube][/youtube]

[Dave2]

Maybe they'll work as well as this French rocket.

[youtube][/youtube]

I wonder what happened next?