Excaliber wrote:If you don't have time to look up the source, it would be appreciated if you'd refrain from wasting ours by posting unsupported statistical garbage that even you don't believe anyway.
Tossing a highly controversial but unsupported statistic into an already heated debate inevitably sheds much more heat than light, and causes those of us who care about leaving unrefuted misinformation on the Forum to spend time hunting down its roots instead of on more productive endeavors.
In my book, going silent, for whatever reason, and failing to respond to an immediate request from a moderator for a reference right after posting that statistic does not enhance a member's credibility either.
Let's use this experience as an opportunity to improve our Forum submissions. My request to all would be to provide a link to the source of any statistic cited so the rest of us can easily do the homework to assess its value.
I'd even like to see it elevated to a Forum rule.
Mods? Charles?
Yes, I should have provided a source. However, it wouldn't change much, especially in this case. In the first place, while a source reference is perhaps better than nothing...how much better is it? If, for example, the source was supposed to be a news article that referenced a study, or even a study itself, what would it tell you? Pretty much nothing more than I didn't just make up the numbers cited --that's it. It wouldn't tell you that the "source" didn't make up the numbers, no matter how supposedly reputable the source might be. For that you'd have to see the study AND the raw data, not someone's description of the study. Secondly, who is to say the source claimed is the actual source? The source you say you found is the not source I see referenced for this particular statistic. I looked around for a few minutes and found the statistic attributed to Don B. Kates and/or Gary Kleck:
http://wc.arizona.edu/papers/89/104/03_1_m.html and
http://www.keepandbeararms.com/informat ... sp?ID=1776. So who's correct?
There is no statistic, no matter the source, that isn't conditional and debatable. Sources can be cited all day long but it's rare, very rare, to see the actual methodology, and the raw data that a statistical result is compiled from, on the internet, so we're always taking someone's word that a given statistic is relevant and meaningful. Even when a report is available it provides the results, not the raw data, and there is no way of determining whether or not the statistic given is close enough to something we can call "truth" to be meaningful. And that's assuming complete objectively and honestly on the part of the person compiling the statistic --something that is also very rare.
In the case of this particular statistic I'm surprised you find it controversial.....it seems to me that it's pretty much what one would expect --which is why I mentioned it even though I couldn't remember the reference. LEO's are in the business of seeking out and confronting criminals, and they're often introduced into a situation where they can't be certain of who the good guys are. In any case, even if you considered the source to be reliable, it seems to me that the numbers just point to something that could be true: to make a judgment from these numbers would require more data --at a minimum the population each percentage is based on, in addition to much more subjective information like the definitions of LEO, civilian, and "innocent." Any mention of a statistic presupposes some reasonable level of understanding of statistics and logic.
I'm probably not communicating the concept properly, but I don't "believe" any statistic. I view every statistic as suspect, and at best, a guide to making an informed judgement. A statistic can represent something close enough to the truth to be meaningful; it can be "truthful" and yet meaningless; it can be "truthful" and misleading; it can be deceptive; it can be mostly false and yet still meaningful; and a host of other possibilities.
To me, it's not doing your homework just to check on a link provided as a reference. I typed in a few phrases like "how often do police shoot the wrong person" and in a few minutes found links citing Don Kates and Gary Kleck. It seems to me that doing my homework entails my own independent search for and evaluation of references.I don't know how you're going to "fact check" any reference, especially one that is obscure. It's one thing to "fact check" some statement someone claims Obama made --you may find a preponderance of agreement that he did or didn't make such a statement-- it's another thing entirely to "fact check" a reference to a study of any kind, much less one this obscure.
Excaliber wrote:In my book, going silent, for whatever reason, and failing to respond to an immediate request from a moderator for a reference right after posting that statistic does not enhance a member's credibility either.
Seriously? Whatever reason? Checking and answering blog posts is pretty far down on my list of priorities. Furthermore, I don't see what it has to do with my "credibility." I made a remark that I qualified with "supposedly" to indicate that there is reason for doubt --that it shouldn't be taken at face value, and I gave a statistic that doesn't even seem controversial to me, but what one might expect, given the inherent differences between LEO's and non-LEO's. But of course, you're free to make whatever judgement you wish about my credibility --I'm content to let whatever I've posted here stand on its own.
"Journalism, n. A job for people who flunked out of STEM courses, enjoy making up stories, and have no detectable integrity or morals."
From the WeaponsMan blog, weaponsman.com