Ike

[flintknapper]

Russell, I'm not offended by your comment; but I'm not going to relax much for the next four days.

People who have not been through a tropical storm or hurricane just don't realize what it's like. That's why tourists often ending up drowning on the roof of their vacation home after their refusal to evacuate and their hurricane party..

TV reporters get excited about hurricanes because a little-known TV reporter from Houston by the name of Dan Rather launched his national career by reporting Hurricane Carla from Galveston in 1961. That ain't gonna happen again.

- Jim

Yup, seems everyone wants to see "what its like" until midway through one. Anything above a Cat 1 is no fun...I can tell you. Even a tropical storm (depending upon your location) can be quite an experience.

[KBCraig]

It looks a lot better now (for me, anyway!) than it did when it was aimed straight at Port Arthur. Sorry for you folks from Galveston on south.

P. (his wife's nickname for him; I will never reveal it) you're just a tad far north to worry much about tropical storms.

We don't get the wind, but boy do we ever get the rain after the storm moves inland!

The current Ike predictions show the storm hitting land in the south, then making a u-turn back up through SA and DFW and right over me. That's a lot of dwell time for me on the northeast side of the storm, which is where all the rain gets dumped.

[Skiprr]

Here's the 10:00 (9:00 Central) update from the National Hurricane Center with a Google Maps overlay to give you a better idea of the geography:



My company has announced Houston area office closures for tomorrow through Sunday.

Stay safe out there, folks.

[Liberty]

Scary, darn scary .....

[longhorn_92]

Scary, darn scary .....

I second that!

[Skiprr]

The Pearland Shooting Club is in a mandatory evacuation zone.

Meteorologists are saying there's a plus and a minus based on how large the storm is. The plus is that it probably won't grow to a Cat 4; the minus is it's so large that it's highly unlikely the projected track will move very much. This one won't be pulling a Rita and curving off to the east.

I'll bet the 4:00 p.m. update will move it very slightly to the east, somewhere a little east of Freeport. Storm surge expected through Galveston Bay could flood a broad area, and as of the 10:00 a.m. update the NHC is giving these probabilities of hurricane force winds: Galveston: 45%; Freeport: 44%; Houston: 37%; Port Arthur: 25%.

I tried to run a couple of errands at noon (no luck, BTW) and the traffic was already abysmal. Even northbound surface streets like Eldridge and Hwy. 6 were already congested. News is saying over two hours now to get from NASA Rd. 1 through downtown northbound.

[Skiprr]

Here is the map overlay showing the 4:00 p.m. update projected track from the National Hurricane Center. Very slight easterly shift:



The first "H" marker is 1:00 p.m. Friday, and the third one is 1:00 p.m. Saturday. That would place landfall at about 1:00 a.m. Saturday between Freeport and Galveston. Meteorologists are saying that a strike in that location by a Cat 3 would translate into a 12 ft. to 16 ft. storm surge. At a 20-foot surge, basically everything from NASA Rd. 1 south is standing in water.

[anygunanywhere]

At a 20-foot surge, basically everything from NASA Rd. 1 south is standing in water.

You are just full of good cheer today.

Anygunanywhere

[KBCraig]

Those boys in burnt orange showed they're afraid of either a little wind and water, or the Razorbacks, or both!

See ya back in two weeks.

[dustyb]

Here is the map overlay showing the 4:00 p.m. update projected track from the National Hurricane Center. Very slight easterly shift:



The first "H" marker is 1:00 p.m. Friday, and the third one is 1:00 p.m. Saturday. That would place landfall at about 1:00 a.m. Saturday between Freeport and Galveston. Meteorologists are saying that a strike in that location by a Cat 3 would translate into a 12 ft. to 16 ft. storm surge. At a 20-foot surge, basically everything from NASA Rd. 1 south is standing in water.

Looks like it will be sitting directly over my house at 1:00 pm.

[lawrnk]

Liberty, KBcraig, and anyone else within 20 miles of the coast will especially be in our thoughts and prayers. I anticipate roof damage and blown out windows in south east Ft Bend, but the coastal areas will be terrifying.

[KD5NRH]

I anticipate roof damage and blown out windows in south east Ft Bend, but the coastal areas will be terrifying.

I anticipate having to dig out my umbrella and put some more RainX on the windshield.

You couldn't pay me to live in the washout zone. Heck, it's hard to convince me to visit that area. Now, who wants contact information for real estate agents up here in the sensible part of the state? I'm sure TacPro would be willing to host the next CHLForum Day.

[Skiprr]

Dr. Sweetness Light here, chief meteorologist for ACME Gunstores.

The NHC fine tuned Ike's projected path as of the 10:00 a.m. update, and news is generally bad:



The point of landfall has moved only 5 or 10 miles east--closing in on a dead-on smack into the mouth of Galveston Bay--and the track no longer turns north as rapidly as it did at the 7:00 p.m. update yesterday. Now, the eye shows to be moving almost exactly up I-45 all the way from Galveston to Huntsville.

What's changed is that the low pressure front off to our northwest has basically stalled south of Lubbock. The southern area of the front may actually be weakening, and if it does--or if it stops any southeastward movement and just drifts over Oklahoma--I wouldn't be surprised if the final track for Ike doesn't turn north as quickly even as this revised model shows.

The NHC is now giving Houston a 50% chance of seeing hurricane-force winds, and Galveston a 77% chance.

The good news is that Ike's pressure has not beem falling overnight, so the expectation now is that it won't reach a Cat 3. But to Galveston and Chambers Counties, that may not matter. The storm surge is expected to be huge. Here's NOAA's storm surge model (this is an experimental product and really isn't an announced forecast):



The little blue flags show the anticipated maximum surge. Upper San Jacinto Bay and Trinity Bay are nearing 20 feet, and Port Arthur tops 22 feet. High Island up around 18 feet.

On behalf of ACME Gunstores, this is Dr. Sweetness Light signing out until we see if we have power about 30 hours from now...