The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.
The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.
The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.
O. Lee James, III Captain, US Army (Retired 2012), Honorable Order of St. Barbara
Safety Ministry Director, First Baptist Church Elgin
NRA, NRA Basic Pistol Shooting Instructor, Rangemaster Certified, GOA, TSRA, NAR L1
So, is the data really in now? Should we end the isolation? Lets take a look at some of the data and see what we think.
Texas has 21,944 confirmed cases. That is a lot of sick people. Some of them were so sick that they passed away. Texas has had 561 fatalities blamed on COVID-19. An interesting note on this is that Texas has had 225,078 people tested for the virus. That means that less than 10% of the people who were tested for the virus actually had it. Considering this has been pretty much the going rate since the DSHS started posting the data it is an interesting problem. When it started, you only tested people to confirm they had the virus when they had known exposure or showed specific symptoms. There are two possible conclusions from this - one is that the test is faulty and the other is that the disease is not nearly as widespread as was first though.
In more than one study now (Stanford did one in Santa Clara County and LA did one in LA County, while NY just did one across NY state), the test has shown that the disease is much more widespread than we first thought. This is based on a test for antibodies than can only be developed in the body after contracting at least some case of the virus. Stanford said that up to 85 times the number of people who originally were thought to have the virus had the antibodies. An important note is that they only tested people who had not been tested for the virus itself. If we apply that to Texas, we get around 1.85 million cases in Texas. NY state has shown 20% of the people in NYC had the antibodies. Their test is a little more interesting because by testing around the state, they got different percentages in different parts of the state. It ranged from 3.6 to 21% and had a statewide average of 13.9%.
Texas has a population estimate of around 28.5 million. If we actually had a 13.9% infection rate, that means we had 3.9 million cases in Texas. We could also guesstimate that our rate is somewhere between the two counts shown (1.85 and 3.9 million) and say it is about 2.5 million. Or, given that the Stanford study used the 85 times as their high end, we could use it as a point in the middle between their low end and NY's average. I tend to be conservative on things like this, so lets continue to work with the 1.85 million cases as out number.
The Texas fatality rate for 561 fatalities out of 21,944 cases is 2.61%. But since the fatality number did not change, using 1.85 million cases would lower the fatality rate to .003%. That is not a typo, but is 3/100ths of 1 % of the cases. Out of 252 fatality cases investigated so far in Texas, we had 20 people (under 10 %) die that were younger than 50. No one who was younger than 20 dies. 27 people in their 50w (another 10%) died, while 49 in their sixties and another 49 in their 70s passed away. 107 out of the 252 fatalities investigated were in their 80s. I am guessing that the percentage of deaths by age will change slightly, but just slightly, as those remaining cases are investigated and released.
So, using what is now publicly available as data (all data to be taken with a grain of salt since it is media reported and not in peer reviewed journals), what can we conclude. I believe that:
1. The virus is much more contagious than we first thought. It is spread much more easily than anyone believed.
2. It is not nearly as serious as people first led us to believe. Somewhere between 75 and 95% of the people who had the virus experienced either no symptoms or such light symptoms that they never went to a doctor or for testing.
3. People build up their immunization to the virus very easily. This is actually a corollary of statement 2. It is possible that the people with the antibodies never had a real "case" of the virus, just were exposed to it enough for their body to react by building up antibodies. Either way, this means the disease is not nearly as deadly as some people led us to believe.
4. The testing procedures people are using to determine if a person has the virus are worthless. A 90% negative rate makes either the testing worthless or our diagnosis process wrong. Either way, waiting for testing capability is a waste of time.
5. If my logic in the first four statements is correct (and I am not a medical expert and freely admit I could be wrong on any or all of it), then it does say the lockdown was unnecessary and ruined our economy from fear instead of actual need. We need to reopen all business and just use some simple common sense guidelines to protect the most vulnerable people. The most vulnerable are the elderly. The DSHS case information does not reveal commodities, but all of the news has been saying another highly vulnerable group are those with other medical conditions already. It seems reasonable to me that those with other serous illnesses or conditions and the elderly are more likely to die from this disease. It is a little cold-hearted to point out but they are also the ones more likely to die anyway.
Yes, I am ready to see almost all businesses reopen with no restrictions. I think the businesses could self-police and decide how long they want to require customers to wear masks or pay for extra cleaning and disinfecting of their business. I am a big believer in the market controlling things and I don't think most people would accept a store not being clean a little more than it was before. The one type of business I want to see still a little more closely regulated is the food processing industry. I cannot see how clean they maintain the equipment or building directly and with the number of cases coming out of some of the processing plants, I have a little concern. I have faith that the big name companies, like Tyson chicken, would prepare and clean the buildings. But I never heard of the company whose pork processing was shutdown for their employees getting COVID-19. So, I would accept the state concentrating on making sure places like those (including Tyson) are kept clean to ensure our food supply is as safe as we can make it (note I did not say safe, just as safe as we can make it - nothing is truly safe).
srothstein wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:23 am
The one type of business I want to see still a little more closely regulated is the food processing industry. I cannot see how clean they maintain the equipment or building directly and with the number of cases coming out of some of the processing plants, I have a little concern. I have faith that the big name companies, like Tyson chicken, would prepare and clean the buildings. But I never heard of the company whose pork processing was shutdown for their employees getting COVID-19. So, I would accept the state concentrating on making sure places like those (including Tyson) are kept clean to ensure our food supply is as safe as we can make it (note I did not say safe, just as safe as we can make it - nothing is truly safe).
I think food processing plants could do with some upgrading in general. Not just for China Virus but for other food born pathogens as well. Especially in the meat packing segment.
One area that is always going to be at risk is from the personal working at these places. They are typically lower income undocumented immigrants with little to no access to health care. The same goes for any time we eat at a restaurant. I find humorous that people feel safe ordering food from these places. We have absolutely zero idea of what the people preparing our food may have.
But these risks have always existed and always will. The same government officials screaming fire about people going to work, claim it is somehow safe to fill grocery stores with people.
I think the most logical choice is the following course of action
1) No restriction on anyone who is less than 40 yrs old and in good heath
2) Those who are at high risk such a people older than 40yrs old, or those who have pre-exsiting medical cases or low immune systems,should expect more protection, medical and financial support, and accommodation at work and in public.
3) Retirement homes, and Assisted living place and medical centers should have higher level of sensitization/protection for employees and residents, etc.
I am a very high risk chronic-patient.
Beiruty,
United we stand, dispersed we falter
2014: NRA Endowment lifetime member
The data is mind numbing. Depending on which channel you watch, it's either over and all should return to pre-scare activities or the "real" surge is coming in a few weeks.
Spoke to a Dr. yesterday who's hospital system informed it's employees that for this area (central Texas) their expected height will be about 3rd week of May. The curve was flattened so that will delay the height of it. But that the new surge will not overwhelm hospital capacities.
I think that we should move to voluntary restriction, with some protections. ie: those at risk or worried can still isolate but with some protection of their job being available when they come back. Let those willing to assume the risk go back to some form of normalcy.
I do think that the initial lock down was appropriate, based on the data available at the time and the incorrect data from china. If that data had been right, almost no one would be upset about the lockdown, minus the obvious constitutional infringements.
I also believe there should be steep repercussions for china and anyone else that lied or intentionally withheld accurate info.
Beiruty wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:26 am
I think the most logical choice is the following course of action
1) No restriction on anyone who is less than 40 yrs old and in good heath
2) Those who are at high risk such a people older than 40yrs old, or those who have pre-exsiting medical cases or low immune systems,should expect more protection, medical and financial support, and accommodation at work and in public.
3) Retirement homes, and Assisted living place and medical centers should have higher level of sensitization/protection for employees and residents, etc.
I have been on self-imposed house arrest since Friday, March 13, 2020. I miss shooting matches and being on a good range. I have tons of griefs if I sneak out to do some shooting. My family is scared to death to lose me due to COVID-19. The social consequences of the COVID-19 are devastating.
Beiruty,
United we stand, dispersed we falter
2014: NRA Endowment lifetime member
Beiruty wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:46 am
I have been on self-imposed house arrest since Friday, March 13, 2020. I miss shooting matches and being on a good range. I have tons of griefs if I sneak out to do some shooting. My family is scared to death to lose me due to COVID-19. The social consequences of the COVID-19 are devastating.
Maybe explain to them that there are only 584 cases in ALL of Collin County. There are more than 1 million people in Collin county. You are more likely to be hit by a school bus than get China Virus. In addition with only 14 total deaths so far your odds of death due to China Virus are lower than getting hit by lighting.
Beiruty wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:46 am
I have been on self-imposed house arrest since Friday, March 13, 2020. I miss shooting matches and being on a good range. I have tons of griefs if I sneak out to do some shooting. My family is scared to death to lose me due to COVID-19. The social consequences of the COVID-19 are devastating.
Maybe explain to them that there are only 584 cases in ALL of Collin County. There are more than 1 million people in Collin county. You are more likely to be hit by a school bus than get China Virus. In addition with only 14 total deaths so far your odds of death due to China Virus are lower than getting hit by lighting.
They would counter that we have 5-6 new cases in our city each other day.
Beiruty,
United we stand, dispersed we falter
2014: NRA Endowment lifetime member
03Lightningrocks wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:19 am
Maybe explain to them that there are only 584 cases in ALL of Collin County. There are more than 1 million people in Collin county. You are more likely to be hit by a school bus than get China Virus.
Nuh Uh. No school buses running. Controlavirus far more deadly than school buses.
In certain extreme situations, the law is inadequate. In order to shame its inadequacy, it is necessary to act outside the law to pursue a natural justice.
than get China Virus. In addition with only 14 total deaths so far your odds of death due to China Virus are lower than getting hit by lighting. 