Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

[Charles L. Cotton]

I just noticed something about this thread. It has been viewed over 20,000 times. That's great to see because it means a lot of people are getting the message. I know from comments I've received from our folks in Austin that these stats are widely used during the legislative session by a lot of people. BTW, the downloaded totals clear and start over every time I upload new files, so you can't g by those numbers.

Chas.

[baldeagle]

Charles, that's fantastic. Thanks again for all the hard work you do on our behalf. I don't know what we would do without you.

[jmra]

Charles, that's fantastic. Thanks again for all the hard work you do on our behalf. I don't know what we would do without you.

[Charles L. Cotton]

Thanks guys!

I've added another file that covers crimes per 100,000 for 2002 through 2012, so the following data is available:

• 1. Crimes per 100,000 for 2002 - 2012 in pdf;
  2. Crimes per 100,000 for 2012 (most recent DPS data) in pdf;
  3. Detailed crime data for all crimes from 2002 - 2012, including crimes per 100,000 in Excel.

I have found that the crimes per 100,000 are much more meaningful to almost everyone, than are the detailed data. This is largely because people don't understand and appreciate the fact that a change of 1/10 of one percent is significant with a population of 18+ million people. I have presented the crimes per 100,000 both as a stand alone 2012 file since that is the most recent data released by DPS, as well as for the entire study period of 2002 - 2012. This makes it easy for people to print only the most current year or the entire study, whichever is most useful for their application.

Chas.

[ELB]

Thanks guys!

I've added another file that covers crimes per 100,000 for 2002 through 2012, so the following data is available:

• 1. Crimes per 100,000 for 2002 - 2012 in pdf;
  2. Crimes per 100,000 for 2012 (most recent DPS data) in pdf;
  3. Detailed crime data for all crimes from 2002 - 2012, including crimes per 100,000 in Excel.

...
Chas.

The two .pdf links in the OP go to two different PDFs of the same document, the 2012 rates per 100K. The 2002-2012 one appears to be missing.

[Charles L. Cotton]

Thanks guys!

I've added another file that covers crimes per 100,000 for 2002 through 2012, so the following data is available:

• 1. Crimes per 100,000 for 2002 - 2012 in pdf;
  2. Crimes per 100,000 for 2012 (most recent DPS data) in pdf;
  3. Detailed crime data for all crimes from 2002 - 2012, including crimes per 100,000 in Excel.

...
Chas.

The two .pdf links in the OP go to two different PDFs of the same document, the 2012 rates per 100K. The 2002-2012 one appears to be missing.

Just scroll through the pages on the 2002-2012 document, all the data is there.

Chas.

[ELB]

Aha! turns out i needed reinstall acrobat -- it was loading slow anyway, something was not right. Thanks for doing this!

[TEA]

I have the data going back to 2002 and it's in the spreadsheet. The pdf is only the last two years and only the comparison per 100,000. I need to update for 2012 since DPS has now released that data.

Chas.

That's great. Thanks.

[RX8er]

Chas, as always, thanks for keeping these stats active. I know that Jennifer (The Busy Mom) talks to these stats during her CHL classes.

[TEA]

Thanks again. I hope that this data will prove useful at our next faculty association meeting.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=71888

[Thardinsmith]

How many CHLs committed crimes last year? Seems like officers should relax as soon as they realize your a CHL & not likely to want to harm them.

[Jumping Frog]

How many CHLs committed crimes last year? Seems like officers should relax as soon as they realize your a CHL & not likely to want to harm them.

An LEO can never totally relax just because the probabilities are low. All it takes is one nutcase -- CHL or not -- to shoot you and that creates a bad day.

I am personally aware of at least one LEO that was shot and killed by a CHL during a traffic stop in Ohio about 2008 or so.

[Charles L. Cotton]

DPS just released crime stats for 2013. I will do the detailed analysis when I have time, but based upon a CHL eligible population of approximately 19 million Texans, CHLs are 16.74 times less likely to commit a crime than is the general population. This number will change when I get the exact number (yeah, right) of Texans age 21 and over, but the change will be insignificant.

Chas.

[Rrash]

I notice it spiked considerably in 2013. Just curious, are many of these convictions tied to one offender? There seems to be a large number of sexual assault with a child and child indecency convictions, for example. All in all, it's an astoundingly small number, but I could see Bloomberg saying that crime stats among CHL's almost doubled over the last 2 years, for example.

[Charles L. Cotton]

I notice it spiked considerably in 2013. Just curious, are many of these convictions tied to one offender? There seems to be a large number of sexual assault with a child and child indecency convictions, for example. All in all, it's an astoundingly small number, but I could see Bloomberg saying that crime stats among CHL's almost doubled over the last 2 years, for example.

With the miniscule number of CHL convictions, even small increases represent a large change in terms of percentage. Total CHL crimes went up by only 38, while the total number of CHLs increased by 123,198! As you noted, one person could account for more than one crime, but that information is not available.

Chas.