Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

[Charles L. Cotton]

CHLs have proven themselves to be responsible and law-abiding and the public deserves to know that the unscrupulous scare tactics used by opponents of campus-carry and other pro-CHL measures are refuted by clear and convincing evidence.

An Excel spreadsheet showing the data related to convictions of Texas CHLs and the general population in Texas over age 21 years is attached. All of the initial work was done by a UT engineering student who worked for me one summer. As you can see, she did a tremendous job putting this together. Just getting accurate population numbers for people age 21 yrs. and over wasn’t easy. Not only did she do all of the research, she chose the presentation method and put it all together. We all owe her our appreciation, as this data was be used extensively in every Texas Legislative Session. Thanks Allison! (BTW, she’s the baby sister of one of our TexasCHLforum members.)

The data is presented in three different formats for both CHLs and the general population; Convictions Per 100,000; Total Convictions; and Percentage of Convictions (% of target population). There is a separate page showing the population by age group.

To most folks, the crimes per 100,000 is the most meaningful and easiest to use for comparison. There are a lot of people who don’t appreciate that a difference of one, two or three decimal places in a comparison of a population nearing 20 million people is absolutely huge, so that’s why crimes per 100,000 is the most commonly used presentation method.

The [url=http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/re ... vrates.htm[/url] set out on their website are presented in detail, but without a summary to aid review. The attached spreadsheets have both a summary sheet categorized for related crimes, as well as all of the individual detailed crimes set out on the DPS reports. This presentation format was chosen to aid review and comparison, while making it possible to verify that every crime reported by DPS is included in this spreadsheet.

UPDATED FOR 2015:
The numbers just keep getting better! For 2015, Texas Licensees are 21 times less likely to commit a crime than is the general population (GP).

Remember, the crime figures for the general population published by the DPS are for person age 21 years and over. That's the only way to make a comparison with Licensees. Therefore, the crime figures posted will be different from the overall crime stats for the State, because those will include people who are between 17 and 20 years of age. In other words, the DPS data and my analysis are conservative because the total number of crimes for the general population would be higher if they included crimes committed by people in the 17 - 20 year old bracket.

Here are some examples of what the data show for the most recent calendar year - 2015:

In 2015, there were 937,419 active CHLs, representing an increase of 111,462, yet LTCs had only 108 total convictions.

Overall - The general population is over 21 times more likely to commit any offense listed by DPS as are LTCs

Assault - The general population is over 34 times more likely to commit an assault as are CHLs

Burglary - The general population over age 21 is almost 169 times more likely to commit a burglary as are CHLs

Chas.

[Charles L. Cotton]

This is a copy of a post I put in another thread. I posted it here as a sticky so people could access the data without having to do a search for what will become an old thread/post.

Chas.

[Kalrog]

Thanks for the great work Allison and Charles! I know that I appreciate it and I am sure that many others do as well.

I will not publish the data I have, but the track record of CHLs' is much better than that of law enforcement.

Can I ask your reasoning behind this decision? Not intending to denigrate the LE community on this point, but the argument is quite often made that police are supposed to protect us and that they are the model of responsibility. Accept the premise that LEOs are as responsible as a population should be - and then show that CHLs are N times more responsible. Seems to be a good strategy. Is this data you want to keep private for some reason? I would be quite interested in this (in fact I mentioned it on the other thread prior to any hint that you were gathering it) for personal discussions if nothing else.

[barres]

I will not publish the data I have, but the track record of CHLs' is much better than that of law enforcement.

Would it do any of us any good to ask for copies of the data for our own use ( not to be disseminated)?

[casingpoint]

An interesting way to evaluate the morality of a target group. Of the two property loss crimes, burglary and robbery, CHL holders are an underwhelming minority. On account of their familiarity with weapons, they have a deeper understanding of what the immediate consequences can be if caught in the act. Assaults are a different matter. Perhaps the old macho frontier attitude keeps them in the game. And there appears to be a lot of people packing prohibited weapons who aren't licensed for a handgun. Surprise not. Thanks Allison and Charles.

[thankGod]

Good work Charles and Allison.

[Charles L. Cotton]

. . . Assaults are a different matter. Perhaps the old macho frontier attitude keeps them in the game. . . .

Even with the assault category, the general population is 8 times as likely to commit an assault as a CHL. Stated differently, the track record of CHLs is 827% better than the general population.

Chas.

[Monkey404error]

Since Allison is going back to school soon, I suggest you get in all your requests for information before she leaves Mr. Cotton's office, so she can get them done before leaving. (yes shes my little sister, so I can suggest extra work for her. mwuahahaha)
And I'll have to thank her and MR. Cotton for getting this, because I can use it at school for my "classmates" who think armed people are prone to violence and the sort.

Edit: guess its too late, its her last day today

[Skiprr]

Give her a big THANKS from all of us. The data tell an important, unbiased story.

[artx]

With this great compilation of stats, the usual lies about CHL holders in schools, bars, sporting events, etc should be easier to turn aside.

I read with great interest the comment Chas made about CHL holders being statistically more law-abiding than LEO's - most schools in bigger districts have the school resource officer - who is armed with their standard duty sidearm- at the school during normal hours. If the public accepts the school resource officers on campus, and CHL holders are MORE law abiding than LEO, the typical arguments against CHL holders being armed in schools/bars/etc totally fail, and we have the stats to back it up.

[ScubaSigGuy]

Great info Charles. We need to get some of those bullet statements printed on the back of no chl / no business cards.

Thanks.

[HGWC]

CHLs have proven themselves to be responsible and law-abiding and the public deserves to know that the unscrupulous scare tactics used by opponents of campus-carry and other pro-CHL measures are refuted by clear and convincing evidence.

To me, this data doesn't say anything really relevant. We have laws on the books that limit CHLs only to citizens with a long history of abiding by the law. Why would anyone be surprised that law abiding citizens abide by the law?

[HGWC]

Great info Charles. We need to get some of those bullet statements printed on the back of no chl / no business cards.

Thanks.

It seems to me that using this data in the way you've suggested may be counter productive to other aspects of the promotion of gun rights. Today, through a prohibitive and onerous set of laws, associated costs, delays and investment in time, only a limited number of the most determined citizens are able to exercise their right to legally defend themselves with a firearm in public at all. By definition of these onerous laws, it's not surprising that this subset of citizens have a history of abiding by the law. Using this fact to further the rights of this exclusive subset of citizens may be counter productive to guaranteeing the right to all citizens.

[seamusTX]

You say that you are fairly new to these issues.

In every state where concealed carry has been legalized in the last 20 years, the same old clichés have been repeated endlessly: blood in the streets, wild west, shootout at the O.K. Corral.

These fears have been proven false every time, but we need to keep fighting. The antis periodically issue some warped statistics claiming that CHL holders have committed a huge number of crimes, which they can show only by including traffic offenses and that sort of thing.

We have to defend the ground that we hold in addition to making progress. There was a time when "any gun anywhere" was the law. We lost that because of fear of crime. We have be sure that history is not repeated.

- Jim

[anygunanywhere]

Why would anyone be surprised that law abiding citizens abide by the law?

Because most, if not all antis do not think that even us law abiding folks should even be allowed to own guns, much less exercise our right to keep AND bear arms. The proof is there for the antis should they ever decide to stop feeling with their emotions and start thinking with their brains. The statistics are not really for us, for we know of these truths.

Anygunanywhere