Interesting statistics I found when browsing the CHL website

[jlangton]

I fund a statistical list of all convictions in the state for the years of 2002-2006,and in those reports was a breakdown of the numbers of CHL holders that were convicted of crime.
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administra ... vrates.htm
Just a quick breakdown....
For 2002 there were 224,172 CHL's and 301 were convicted of some kind of criminal activity / .1343% of the total number of license holders.
For 2003 there were 239,863 CHL's and 284 were convicted of some kind of criminal activity / .1188% of the total number of license holders.
For 2004 there were 239,940 CHL's and 372 were convicted of some kind of criminal activity / .1554% of the total number of license holders.
For 2005 there were 248,874 CHL's and 625 were convicted of some kind of criminal activity / .2513% of the total number of license holders.
For 2006 there were 258,162 CHL's and 587 were convicted of some kind of criminal activity / .2275% of the total number of license holders.

There's a good bit of information in those statistical sheets as to the types of convictions,and the numbers of CHl holders that were convicted.
Just something I found interesting...
JL

[WildBill]

I plotted this data in Excel and it shows a trend towards an increase in crimes.

[jlangton]

I plotted this data in Excel and it shows a trend towards an increase in crimes.

Thing is...it's much less than 1% of the total number of licensees,and nothing like the media and liberal gun-hating public would have us believe..."blood will run like rivers" comments...
There were very few deaths related to those convictions,and a minimal number of deadly weapons charges-most of the convictions for CHL holders were "nuisance to society" type crimes.

[jlangton]

You should present those statistics with the total number of crimes committed by non-license holders.

2002=55,094 total convictions
2003=59,770 total convictions
2004=63,715 total convictions
2005=60,873 total convictions
2006=61,539 total convictions

[TexasComputerDude]

so basically carrying a concealed handgun makes virtually no difference? people who are gonna do something bad are gonna do it regardless I guess lol

[seamusTX]

Some things to keep in mind here:

Rare events generally do not show trends. Take commercial airline crashes as an example. There might be zero to ten a year worldwide. Sometimes we go years straight with no fatal crashes. There's no trend. They are purely random events.

Let's look at specific offenses, only for CHL holders:

Code: Select all

Offense                      2002          2006
=======                      ====          ====
AGG SEXUAL ASSAULT CHILD        7             3
ASSAULT CAUSES BODILY INJ      12            21
MURDER                          1             1
UNL CARRYING WEAPON            18            23

Aggravated sexual assault of a child, as heinous as it is, does not generally involve weapons.

I don't know how a CHL holder can be charged with Unlawful Carrying Weapons. These cases were probably plea bargains from something else. It's a victimless crime in any case.

Most of the other offenses are trivial or have very low numbers, like 1 or 2 a year.

Compare this to the tens of thousands of non-CHL-holders convicted of violent felonies like murder, rape, and robbery.

I should also mention that only people age 17 and over are charged with criminal offenses in Texas, with rare exceptions. The population of Texas is young, and several million are below that age.

- Jim

[SCone]

Take a close look at the stats...

Agg Assault Causes Serious Bodily Inj.... 5
Agg Assault w/Deadly Weapon............. 9
Assault Causes Bodily Inj.................... 21
Assault Causes Bodily Injury Family Violence......... 23
Deadly Conduct................................ 11
Unl Carry Handgun Lic Holder............... 10
Unl Carrying Weapon.......................... 23

There's a few with only 1 or 2 convictions that I did not show here, but the majority of the convictions have to do with misuse of the license or assault. Aggrevated assault I would assume is with a firearm, but it is not stated that way.

The numbers also do not specify if any of the convictions are for the same person involved in the same incident.

In any case, most of these convictions deal with anger and controlling it.

[WildBill]

You should present those statistics with the total number of crimes committed by non-license holders.

I was not comparing two groups, only that there was a trend of increasing crime rate.

Rare events generally do not show trends.

That is why I was looking at total crime, not a specific crime.

Population of Texas in 2006 was estimated at 23,507,783.

Remember that you need to be 21 years old to get a CHL. The crime rate for people between 0-10 years old is very low. Removing some of the very young population from your calculations would show a higher crime rate. As SeamusTx stated, people under 17 years old are rarely charged. That would also change the numbers.

[WildBill]

Most people on this forum think that CHL holders have a lower crime rate than non-CHL holders. They probably attribute this to the background check required to get a CHL. I am just guessing, but I believe that most of the Texas population could pass the background check, if they applied for the license. I don't know the percentage, but I would think that it would be at least 80%. That is why comparing CHL vs non-CHL is misleading. I think you could conclude that most people in Texas are law-abiding and that repeat offenders account for most crimes.

[jlangton]

The entire point of my post,and the source of my interest was that this simple proves the "blood will run like rivers in the streets" attitudes that the gun-grabbing liberals have about handgun licenses is wrong and lacks credibility.
JL

[WildBill]

The entire point of my post,and the source of my interest was that this simple proves the "blood will run like rivers in the streets" attitudes that the gun-grabbing liberals have about handgun licenses is wrong and lacks credibility. JL

I agree that this data shows that the CHL program did not increase shootings as predicted by some people. I was just trying to show an example of how the same data can be used by different people to draw different conclusions. This has been discussed recently.

http://www.texasshooting.com/TexasCHL_F ... cs#p199442

Sorry, for the hijack.

[Charles L. Cotton]

You cannot make a meaningful comparison of CHLs to the entire Texas population. You must first get an estimate of the general population age 18 (or 17) and over. Since Texas has a lot of people under age 18/17, that skews the percentages dramatically, lowering the percentage of crimes for the general population. Remember, unless they are certified as an adult, juvenile "crime" are not part of the overall crime statistics.

For a number of years, a comparison of the the stats for CHLs and the general population were maintained by an individual that posted on tx.guns a great deal. I verified his calculations and source data. I don't believe this information has been kept for several years now. At that time, the general population was 300% more likely to commit one of the index crimes than CHL holders. I don't believe that has changed.

When I get time, I'll try to create another Excel spreadsheet comparing CHLs and the general population.

Chas.

[jlangton]

You cannot make a meaningful comparison of CHLs to the entire Texas population. You must first get an estimate of the general population age 18 (or 17) and over. Since Texas has a lot of people under age 18/17, that skews the percentages dramatically, lowering the percentage of crimes for the general population. Remember, unless they are certified as an adult, juvenile "crime" are not part of the overall crime statistics.

For a number of years, a comparison of the the stats for CHLs and the general population were maintained by an individual that posted on tx.guns a great deal. I verified his calculations and source data. I don't believe this information has been kept for several years now. At that time, the general population was 300% more likely to commit one of the index crimes than CHL holders. I don't believe that has changed.

When I get time, I'll try to create another Excel spreadsheet comparing CHLs and the general population.

Chas.

Thanks Charles-I'm interested in this info-it's very good "ammo" to use against the ignorant arguments of those that are on the fence as to their feelings about concealed carry or even gun ownership.
JL