frankie_the_yankie wrote:
4 out of 150 or so is A LOT to me. It certainly shows that it happens, even in a small sample. So it is 5 snatchings or attempts out of 160 people in total.
FINALLY!
I’ve been waiting on you to settle on some figure and post it here. Five out of 160 works for me.
Now lets break that down and make it meaningful.
What you have presented represents 5 persons/events/incidents of gun snatchings. We may assume this happened only once to each person, as they did not state otherwise.
On the other hand, as referenced below, my OCer’s relate they carry in urban areas anywhere from daily to unspecified numbers of times. Read the quotes below as proof, and then I will point out the flaw in your argument and put this in perspective.
Various respondents wrote:
DreQo: I haven't carried any where BUT urban environments, honestly.
carlson1: I carried off duty for 14 years in plain clothes (no badge in view) and I have never had one problem.
Citizen: Oh. To answer the question, I daily open carry in an urban setting of upwards of a million people.
Demarest: I live in Toledo, Ohio. I open carry in Toledo all the time. BTW, I'm not alone. Every single person I talk to or hang out with these days is armed. Most open carry. All within the urban areas of Toledo, which is no slouch of a city by any measurement.
ConditionThree: I live in California and the only time my weapon was taken from me was by police. Up to that point after a year of demonstrating open carry there had been no incidents where someone attempted to 'snatch' my weapon.
lprgcFrank: Well I've been working in Canton OH since August'06. I OC there regularly. I OC at lunch every day, breakfast about once a week….[break] I mostly fly in and out of Cleveland and OC there as well.
Agent19: OC'ed in Las Vegas, NV from 1988 to 2005 no attempts, only stopped once by LE.
have OC'ed everyday since moving to VA, the only time i don't if it is illegal (school, post office etc.)
bobernet: I have carried all over southern Nevada. Las Vegas, Henderson, Pharump. Henderson is a city of over 300,000 people which immediately borders Las Vegas, a city of close to 2 million people. Never had anyone act as if they would even consider accosting me. I have also carried in an around Kingman, AZ and Prescott, AZ. Haven't OC'd in Phoenix yet. I have carried in retail stores, restaurants, gas stations, convenience stores, etc. I open carry at home and around my neighborhood all the time. I have even carried in major chains like Big Lots, Outback Steakhouse, etc.
Boat Guy: Currently stationed overseas where open carry is NOT an option - in other words I'm not serving anyplace where I can do much good in the war - but I used to open carry in VA due to the "restaurant ban". In other words having a Virginia CCW, I was still required to carry openly if I wanted to eat in any place that sold alcohol by the drink. this usally entailed taking off my jacket and using the rig I wore for CCW. That said I use a crossdraw rig for revolvers and find it great for open carry. Never had anybody even look like they wanted to try for one [abbreviated profanity deleted] my pieces in either carry.
Taclead: While I do not visit Toledo, I have often OCd in Akron--also while eating lunch. They have city ordinances similar to Toledo but they have been preempted by HR347. There are no more valid local, city, county gun laws.
CA_Libertarian: I've been openly carrying in Turlock, CA for the past few months. I've also carried in Modesto and around Stanislaus county.
casullshooter: I open carry in NoVA regularly with a 1911 in a USMC style shoulder holster, barrel points downward . Two fellows wanted to aquire my vehicle one night at knife point , when I turned toward them and the full size 1911 came into view you could smell the rubber from their sneakers burning as the vacated the area. I did not even have to draw for which I am grateful. OC is a much better deterrent as opposed to a grab potential .
Daniel Flory: I've open carried in an urban area and never had a problem of any kind, other than some guys eyeballing me when I was pumping gas.
JesseL: I've OC'ed hundreds of times by now with ZERO incidents.
Sistema1927 :Are Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, and Las Cruces urban enough for you? I have open carried in all four locales, and have never had an attempted snatch.
Ala Dan :Yes, I do carry openly in an urban area daily; my gun has not been snatched, and NO attempts have been made to do so.
denfoote : Arizona has been an open carry state since 4 Feb 1912. I've carried open for years. Nothing has happened!!
Done?
Lets go ahead and take a closer look at what these numbers (160-5) REALLY represent:
In your case.. the respondents represent 5 snatchings or attempts, that’s it!
My 160 represent people Openly Carrying in all kinds of urban environments. Each day a person does this, provides a BG/Thug/Gansta type/Child/or any other person… an opportunity to snatch a pistol.
In fact, we can break it down even further. Every person (not known to you) that gets within arms reach of you on any given day represents a snatching opportunity, a fact too plain to require argument.
So lets see what the REAL numbers look like.
Math time:
Lets say our 160 OCer’s (on average) carry only 90 days a year. That’s 160 people @ 90 days= 14,400 days (someone) could snatch a gun from one of them.
Then we must consider how many people (potential snatchers) each of these persons is in close proximity to. Lets keep it really conservative and say each person was near only 20 other people in the course of their day.
14,400 days x 20 potential snatchers (anyone not known to you… and physically capable)=
288,000 to 5.
What if you encounter 50 people during most days (easily done even in the 2 dog town I live in), then the numbers are
720,000 to 5.
If you live/work in a densely populated area, the number of “potential snatchers� could easily be 100 or more. At 100 we would see numbers like:
1.4 MILLION to 5.
That is the proper way to look at the potential for gun snatchings.
Now, you can challenge and twist these numbers as much as you like, but the fact is: Anyone that OC’s regularly in urban areas, around persons unfamiliar to them, expose themselves to the “possibility� of a snatch… we all agree on that.
But, even the smallest of sample polls (as conducted here) show that in “real life�
when we consider all the opportunities for anyone to take a gun….it just doesn’t happen much, does it?
Frankie, I do not deny that having your weapon taken from you (open carry or concealed) is a serious matter, but what are the chances? If the chances are one in a million…and that is too great for you, fine, don’t OC!
We all take calculated risks everyday. There are many more ways you might suffer harm (with a greater chance of that happening) than what you have presented here.
This will be my last post in this thread about this subject.
Thank you, for your participation in it, I appreciate your passion and commitment to making a point.
Certainly, you have brought “food for thought� to the discussion.
Regards, Flint.
Where do you come up with these analogies?
I am slow and putting the math together and I could undertand each point very clear.
