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From everything I'm reading, ammo makers are running at 100% capacity, 24/7. And yet the shelves remain pretty bare.

I understand the reasons for the demand side, but not the supply side of the equation. It seems weird that the supply side hasn't even begun to catch up. When you consider that supplies haven't been normal for probably 4-5 years (though better at some times than others) I would think established companies would have significantly added to capacity and/or new ones would have popped up and/or some enterprising companies/individuals would be partnering up with foreign makers to pull in supplies from outside America (the shortage isn't global, is it?).

Yes, the demand is high, but I don't even remember the last time I've seen a fully stocked ammo counter.

I don't know much about the ammo industry, but I think I understand what is going on.
As in most manufacturing scaling up is expensive and long range. It can take several years from inception to increased plant capabilities. Before the producers take on such a product. These questions need to be addressed.

Will it be profitable to expand their capabilities and how long will it take to pay off such an expansion?

Can their vendors keep up with an increase demand? It won't do much good to increase ammo production if the materials and chemical sources will not be available.

How long will the current market sustain this rate. It seems to me either we ride out this political climate and there will be lots of people with more ammo than they need or even want (people won't hoard once the political climate stabilizes) or it will become harder to buy guns and ammo and will become more difficult to sell. It doesn't make sense to make long range plans based on temporary conditions.

We went through this 4 years ago, and slowly it eased. I suspect that 4 years from now that things will change.

When the supply pipeline is emptied it takes time for it to refill. The ammo has to be manufactured or imported, shipped to distributors, shipped to wholesalers, finally getting to retail outlets. It's like an empty hose if you turn it on it takes a while for the water to get to the end of the hose. Things will return to "normal" sooner or later. Probably later.

I like it. It gives us a chance to sell some of our weapons we no longer want at much higher prices. I might put some of my ammo up for sale as well.

Lots of hoarders also. I bought my daughter a 22 the other day. I went to Academy on Wednesday morning and got a box of ammo for her ($18.95 for 525 rds). They had several boxes. Someone came by and took the remaining boxes. We are doing this to ourselves.....

Wodathunkit wrote:Lots of hoarders also. I bought my daughter a 22 the other day. I went to Academy on Wednesday morning and got a box of ammo for her ($18.95 for 525 rds). They had several boxes. Someone came by and took the remaining boxes. We are doing this to ourselves.....

Not being able to find .22 LR is really blowing my mind.

Also have to factor in the vast number of first time buyers over the last month. I know many people I thought would never buy a firearm that have purchased one for every member of the family. When they go to buy ammo and see how bare the shelves are, they are going to buy as much as they can find.

Think of it this way, if during a typical range day one shoots 200 rounds of ammo having 1000 rounds on hand only gives you 5 range days so why not have 2 or even 3,000 rounds on hand. Most people are not hoarding, they are stocking up so they can shoot when they want to versus searching for hours to find it. The Gvt placed huge orders for ammo and I believe they are getting it first because of contracts, we get what is left over or ammo built with different componants. I started re-loading to avoid this mess, eventually I will need more componants which also are hard to find, even on the wholesale level, especially primers in larger quantities.

steve817 wrote:

Wodathunkit wrote:Lots of hoarders also. I bought my daughter a 22 the other day. I went to Academy on Wednesday morning and got a box of ammo for her ($18.95 for 525 rds). They had several boxes. Someone came by and took the remaining boxes. We are doing this to ourselves.....

Not being able to find .22 LR is really blowing my mind.

Not me. The .22LR is so versatile, the reason people are picking it up vary wildly. For one, where else can you shoot 500+ rounds for $20? I love my .22's and it's all I have been shooting as of late. It was cheap enough, I was picking up 1000+ rounds every time I stepped foot in to Academy. I'm at the point where I've got over 10k rounds of .22...you don't realize it until you run out of room in the safe.

You also have your doomsday / prepper crowd that picks it up because if it's ability to take small game without having to carry extra weight of a larger caliber and heavier rifle. Rabbit, Squirrel, Snake, and Whitetail (illegal, but if society collapses, who cares). The doomsday / prepper crowd is growing and more prevalent today from what I can remember in the past. I would venture to say that with today's "state of the Union", they are picking up any and all they can.

Liberty wrote:I suspect that 4 years from now that things will change.

I sure hope you are right! Oh, about the ammo thingy too!

punkndisorderly wrote:I understand the reasons for the demand side, but not the supply side of the equation. It seems weird that the supply side hasn't even begun to catch up. When you consider that supplies haven't been normal for probably 4-5 years (though better at some times than others) I would think established companies would have significantly added to capacity and/or new ones would have popped up and/or some enterprising companies/individuals would be partnering up with foreign makers to pull in supplies from outside America (the shortage isn't global, is it?).

The capital investment is not small. For new companies, there's also ATF hoops to jump through. For current manufacturers, if a company is going to invest in equipment that depreciates over ten years or more, they usually want to think the equipment will be needed over that time. In other words, a permanent increase in demand so they don't have expensive machinery sitting idle. Many times with temporary shortages, the return on investment isn't there. That's across all kinds of manufacturing businesses. However, if you think different, you can go into the business and get rich if you bet right.

punkndisorderly wrote:Yes, the demand is high, but I don't even remember the last time I've seen a fully stocked ammo counter.

I don't rememebr any real shortages before Labor Day.

It's the hoarders and panic buyers Imo. I saw a guy in academy 3 days ago who grabbed all the fmj pistol ammo they had in stock. I said to him are u stocking up on your calibers and he said he already had his. That all the ammo was going to be sold to family, friends and who ever would pay for it. People are buying hundreds and thousands of rounds and then trying to turn a profit by selling to all the ocd panic buyers. I know a ffl/collector who has 7 ars for sale. None have cost him more then a thousand and he has sold 2 so far for over 3k.

CC Italian wrote:It's the hoarders and panic buyers Imo. I saw a guy in academy 3 days ago who grabbed all the fmj pistol ammo they had in stock. I said to him are u stocking up on your calibers and he said he already had his. That all the ammo was going to be sold to family, friends and who ever would pay for it. People are buying hundreds and thousands of rounds and then trying to turn a profit by selling to all the ocd panic buyers. I know a ffl/collector who has 7 ars for sale. None have cost him more then a thousand and he has sold 2 so far for over 3k.

Supply and demand...nothing wrong with that.

Two issues: the horders aren’t helping! I also spotted a fellow buy 15 cases (CASES, 25 rds per box, 10 boxes per case = 3750 shells) of Dove load shot gun shells…last week! I jokingly asked him if he knew dove season was over and he replied he heard it was all gonna be banned soon!

I am sure the manufacturers are not too willing to put production into overdrive (at any additional expense) …well, because for certain calibers, Obama just might make it Illegal!

There's all that and that you can't reload .22LR messing everything up.