Ammunition Getting Scare !!

[rmclain3]

WOW! I just went out to buy some .45 ACP ammo today and it's scarce. Gander Mountain had the obligatory Blazers and expensive premium JHPs but the prices were kinda high. I ended up getting some Winchester FMJ range ammo at Academy. No one seems to have any of the Winchester JHP 50rnd boxes anywhere!! Anyone know of any deals on hollow points for .45 ACP anywhere in the Spring / Cypress area North of Houston??

[NuBer92]

go to carters country on treswieg. they have plenty of ammo,
also at the gander on 45n Tues is the day to go for ammo.

[evilmercer]

I would believe it is getting scarce.

The Walmart and Academy near me both have been out of just about everything for a while now. The local gun shop has some but its almost double priced, and even at that they do not have much and were complaining about getting shorted on their orders.

[stevie_d_64]

Look at the disclaimer they have on the Cheaper than Dirt catalogs...Or on their website...Splains a lot...

I think that what you have is what you'll have on hand for a while...Unless you are a reloader...

Ammunition producers are obviously going to keep up with their DoD contracts and meet them without fail...The civilian distribution will become a secondary deal till one of two things happen...

1. The buying frenzy comes back down to normal and allow the companies to catch up to a normal demand...

2. The current administration and its agencies get their way and ammo production and distribution becomes the nail in the coffin for civilian ammunition availability...Lets just hope that is a button they do not push...There would be no winners in that instance...

At which time I believe our only realistic course of action would be to remind them of a few things in November of 2010...

[kd5zex]

Here is a picture from the Wally World in New Braunfels on the evening of 2/20/09. The Remington boxes are .357 Mag on the left and .44 Mag on the right. The black boxes are 30.06.

[Oldgringo]

stevie_d_64 wrote:

...I think that what you have is what you'll have on hand for a while...Unless you are a reloader...

I've been waiting for an order of bullets from Berry's since the first of this month. Apparently, it's not just ammo that's in short supply?

[Taxman]

Visited my local Academy (Brodie Lane) yesterday at noon. The shelves were packed and overflowing with 9mm, .40 and .45acp. Expensive but fully stocked!

[Oldgringo]

stevie_d_64 wrote:

...I think that what you have is what you'll have on hand for a while...Unless you are a reloader...

I've been waiting for an order of bullets from Berry's since the first of this month. Apparently, it's not just ammo that's in short supply?

HOORAY! The mailperson just delivered my handgun bullets from Berry's. Bring on the zombies!

[roberts]

My local Academy has plenty but is limiting purchases to two boxes at a time.

[Fangs]

Here is a picture from the Wally World in New Braunfels on the evening of 2/20/09. The Remington boxes are .357 Mag on the left and .44 Mag on the right. The black boxes are 30.06.

Pretty much the same in San Marcos.

[stroo]

Last weekend I searched the internet for 9mm 115 grain FMJ bullets. Couldn't find any anywhere. Went to the gun show. Couldn't find any. Finally gave up. Fortunately I have a bunch of 124 grain bullets so I can still reload. But it isn't just ammunition that is in short supply.

[bridge]

The ammo counter at the Academy in League City looked like the water isle at Kroger's right before a Hurricane...just about bare.

[gregthehand]

Wal-Mart being out has a lot to do with their purchasing practices and the way they run their supply chain. I have written papers on it and I could explain it but it would take a while and be pretty boring. Unfortunatley a lot of other high volume dealers (Academy, Gander Mtn, etc) run their supply chain the same way. While this system works great for normal moving material it's not a good system for material that was moving at a normal rate and now has become a faster moving item with a lot more inventory turns.

I have a lot of experience in supply chain management and I'm currently working on my Master of Industrial Distribution at Texas A&M. So when i talk about supply chain dynamics and how materials goes to the point of sale I know what I'm talking about. In my opinion what i think we are seeing is a large upswing in demand (obviously) which the manufacturers are having a hard time keeping up with. Furthermore things get more complicated as the material moves through the supply chains of certain distributors who have a more ridgid forecasting schedule and long manufacturer to end user time ratios. I believe that what we are in store for is a bullwhip effect. Eventually the buying will die down and more than likely two things will happen. One, some suppliers will not notice the slow down in time and continue to cut purchase orders for the higher amounts of material. Two, some suppliers will notice the slow down and adjust their purchasing but may or may not pass along the information to the manufacturer. So many of the manufacturers will continue to churn out product that will more than likely become dead stock. Additionally many mid chain distributors will get stuck with a lot of dead material as well. So you will probably see different different kinds of deals being made. Some decent deals by the end retailers who are stuck with a bunch of material. Some good deals made by the mid supply chain distributors who have dead stock and oush it out by offering very good deals to the retailers. Finally some really good manufacturer deals pushed down through the supply chain by the manufacturer.

Personally I have a decent amount of reloading components stashed away just incase but I'm really holding onto my money for the deals that will be out there later. This will come when the fear buying subsides and people get used to the new administration and get distracted by something else. At that time the bullwhip effect will of course bring a backlash onto the supply chain and they will have to unload their material to lean out their inventory and reduce their holding costs.

Just my opinion but an informed one. I'm am a supply chain specialist but I'm not your supply chain specialist!

[gregthehand]

Double tap

[apostate]

Wal-Mart being out has a lot to do with their purchasing practices and the way they run their supply chain. I have written papers on it and I could explain it but it would take a while and be pretty boring. Unfortunatley a lot of other high volume dealers (Academy, Gander Mtn, etc) run their supply chain the same way. While this system works great for normal moving material it's not a good system for material that was moving at a normal rate and now has become a faster moving item with a lot more inventory turns.

A lot of the smaller fish seem to have as much difficulty getting ammunition on their shelves, so I'm unconvinced Walmarts' SCM has very much to do with their current stockouts. However, I wouldn't be surprised if suppliers make the effort to preferentially supply their most profitable customers during shortages, to the extent they can contractually do so.

Having played the Beer Game, I know better than to bet against the bullwhip effect.