Record vote for House Speaker?

[RoyGBiv]

...... But this is a new day and we have Rep. Turner to thank.

Chas.

Thanks Charles.

[gsansing]

With all of everything else, I am gratified to see that my representative voted the way I wished.

Mine as well.

[baldeagle]

Hey Mojo --

I agree on both points. It IS up to us to educate, advocate, but I'm telling you -- It's not a lost cause, but it's a very steep climb. Of my circle of friends, me and one other have our CHLs. Nobody else does. We're talking about an 18-2 ratio here. I don't know the numbers of CHLs v regular voters, but I'm willing to bet it's hundreds of thousands v millions

I certainly didn't take your points as a personal attack, I hope you didn't think I attacked you either.

It's roughly 850,000 CHLs out of 26.45 million million souls.....or roughly 3.2% of the population. 2 out of 18 is higher than average at 11.11%.

Roughly 4.5 million voted in the last gubernatorial election. They represented approximately 25% of the voting age public. 850,000 CHLs represents 18.9% of the voting public IF all CHL holders voted. So "we" have a powerful voice if "we" chose to use it.

[paxton25]

This is incredibly insightful and spot on. I couldn't agree more. When this will matter the most is in the primaries and I guarantee you a large percentage of primary voters are very aware of the speaker vote and it will be used in the campaigns by candidates and advocacy groups. Turner did us a great service by taking a courageous stand as well as the 19 that supported him at their own risk, not the least of those Stickland who is the sponsor for HB195. Some say integrity is doing the right thing when no one is looking, but courage is doing the right thing when everyone is looking.

Confession time. I had to delete two of my own posts, then give myself some cooling off time before posting this. Several people, me included, need to take a deep breath, put emotion aside, and take a rational look at the impact of the first contested race for Speaker of the House in 40 years. Turner lost, but he did a great service for all Texans, other than ultra liberals.

Straus has helped numerous pro-gun bills pass and he has killed some pro-gun bills either in committee or the Calendars Committee. He has promoted far more bills than he has killed, though he has killed some that I consider critical.

For the first time in 40 years, we have a record vote for Speaker of the House. Obviously some people don't appreciate the importance of this vote and how it will impact this legislative session and the 2016 elections. More voters were aware of the Speaker's race this year than ever before, primarily because there was a contested race. Turner has broken the ice and we can expect to see many contested races for Speaker. That puts more pressure on the Speaker to perform up to public expectations.

Conservatives have won several seats in the Senate as well as the Lt. Governor's chair. The news media is running reports that the House till keep a lid on Lt. Gov. Patrick and the more conservative Senate. If conservative bills die in the House, you can bet that the 2016 campaigns will be broadcasting the results of the Speaker's race voting like it was a Super Bowl.

Some have argued that the public doesn't know or care about the Speaker of the House, but that ignores news reports. It also ignores how political campaigns are run. I personally don't think Straus will run in 2016, but I could be wrong. I am convinced that the Republicans who voted for him will demand that their support be rewarded and that their vote not become a political disaster. This is possible only because there was a record vote. If Straus does want to run again in 2016, he'll need those same Republicans to support him and to do that, they must be reelected. Straus already lost some of his closest Lieutenants in the primaries; he can't afford to lose more. If Straus doesn't want to run for the House in 2016, he'll run for something else. He can't afford to lose Republican support for any race he enters, nor can he alienate Texas conservatives.

I would like to have seen someone other than Straus and candidly, someone other than Turner. We need someone with clout, experience and credibility and Turner had only one of those traits. It wasn't to be, just as every experienced politico knew. But this is a new day and we have Rep. Turner to thank.

Chas.

[baldeagle]

These people couldn't realistically vote for Turner...the "Turner 19" will be the last people placed on the Dog Catcher committee. Tough to go back and tell your constituents in 7 months that you fought hard for them against the SPCA in Austin as your number one fight. Sometimes the whole "elections matter" mantra is the biggest hoax!

A lot of eyes will be watching what happens to those 19 Representatives, and if anything negative happens to them, other people will be held accountable. I suspect you'll see something similar happen in the Texas House that happened in the US House. Boehner's knee-jerk reaction was to punish his opponents, but many conservatives who voted for him made it clear that was a bad idea. Suddenly Boehner is preaching anti-immigration messages and the punishment has stopped. I suspect Strauss now realizes he risks losing a lot of support if he does anything radical to punish the 19. The public is waking up, and they are not going away. Politicians are suddenly being deluged with phone calls, faxes and letters, and they can't escape. Most of them realize that if they don't follow through on what they ran on they will be primaried in 2 years and a lot of very loud opponents will be banging on doors trying to get them thrown out.

[LDB415]

Perhaps we should all press our legislator to support a rule change that says when the next speaker is chosen there is a limit of 2 terms as speaker. I doubt we'd ever get it now as Strauss may have designs on several more terms as speaker but if it only applies to the next guy it might be workable.

[baseballguy2001]

"The great changing of the guard is taking place in Texas, and the trains of transformation are rolling," "The question is: Are you on board?" -- San Antonio Republican Joe Straus

It's uncertain whether this alienated Turner from his supporters. Most of them are from North Texas — a small but vocal minority inside the Republican Party who were unsuccessful in pushing a conservative state further to the right.

That's from a news report from my local TV station.

[mojo84]

Much will be revealed with his committee chair appointments.

[joe817]

Much will be revealed with his committee chair appointments.

Do we have any idea when that will take place?

[The Annoyed Man]

Hey Mojo --

I agree on both points. It IS up to us to educate, advocate, but I'm telling you -- It's not a lost cause, but it's a very steep climb. Of my circle of friends, me and one other have our CHLs. Nobody else does. We're talking about an 18-2 ratio here. I don't know the numbers of CHLs v regular voters, but I'm willing to bet it's hundreds of thousands v millions

I certainly didn't take your points as a personal attack, I hope you didn't think I attacked you either.

It's roughly 850,000 CHLs out of 26.45 million million souls.....or roughly 3.2% of the population. 2 out of 18 is higher than average at 11.11%.

Roughly 4.5 million voted in the last gubernatorial election. They represented approximately 25% of the voting age public. 850,000 CHLs represents 18.9% of the voting public IF all CHL holders voted. So "we" have a powerful voice if "we" chose to use it.

Your numbers are better than mine for determining political influence, and I'd bet that CHL holders vote in higher percentages than the general population too. But my answer wasn't so much about political influence as to answer the question from baseballguy2001 about the significance of a ratio of 2 CHLs out of 18 people.

[mojo84]

Much will be revealed with his committee chair appointments.

Do we have any idea when that will take place?

I'm not sure at the moment. Will research it some this afternoon. May someone more learned and experiened in such matters will shed some light on this for us.

[The Annoyed Man]

Confession time......

Thank you for the reminder. I am disappointed that Turner didn't win, but I also understood going into this that a Turner win was a pretty long shot. I am not as pessimistic as some are about Strauss retaliating against either Turner or his supporters. The reason is that the publicity surrounding this record vote elevates the issue into the public consciousness. I posted before that I was afraid that some people have short memories and would forget the importance of this vote. But, I ALSO posted that as long as someone was around to remind The People of it come 2016, then any perfidy in the interim from Strauss against any of the "Turner 19" or Turner himself, would be beaten like a big bass drum during the campaign, and Strauss would pay heavily as a result. Unlike some, I don't think Strauss is stupid. You don't get to be Speaker for two terms, let alone three terms, by being a mental defective. No..... what Strauss is is a politician, and his great sin is that of putting his political game-playing ahead of the conservative ideals he claims to uphold, and in so doing, he has angered a lot of voters. If he punishes anybody for this record vote, the anger won't go away; it will double and triple, and he'll be finished, at least in the legislature.

If he continues to have political aspirations for 2016 and beyond, then Strauss has to play straight with people this session. And that is a direct result of this record vote. Furthermore, if is future aspirations extend to Congress, then he might not be able to get elected without help from the state republican party. If he has made too many enemies this session, he won't get that help.

Like Charles has said, this record vote was very valuable, even if Turner lost.

[The Annoyed Man]

"The great changing of the guard is taking place in Texas, and the trains of transformation are rolling," "The question is: Are you on board?" -- San Antonio Republican Joe Straus

It's uncertain whether this alienated Turner from his supporters. Most of them are from North Texas — a small but vocal minority inside the Republican Party who were unsuccessful in pushing a conservative state further to the right.

That's from a news report from my local TV station.

Whoever wrote that was high on drugs.....especially the last part that I highlighted. Republicans (read that as "conservatives"*) gained seats in the Texas house, did they not? In this session, House republicans outnumber democrats 97-51, with 2 seats still vacant. In 2013, the ratio was 95 republicans to 55 democrats. In other words, with 2 seats still unfilled, democrats went down by 4 seats, and republicans went up by 2 seats. The worst case scenario is that, EVEN IF democrats end up filling the two vacant seats, republicans will still have a 97-53 lead. Alternatively, it could be 98-52, or 99-51.

No matter how you cut it, the legislature is already further to the right than it was 2 years ago, with or without Scott Turner's help. Furthermore, even if he had succeeded, the "Turner 19" could not have pushed the state any further to the right than it already is. Each representative still must vote the conscience of his/her constituency.....and THAT die was cast in November when the ballots were counted. As Speaker, Turner might well have succeeded in getting some conservative bills to the floor for an up or down vote—bills that Strauss might well have tried to kill. But whether or not Strauss kills a bill (or more accurately, gets it killed in committee), that bill still represents the will of some constituency or other, and the legislators are conservative (or liberal) enough to file conservative (or liberal) bills regardless of who holds the Speakership. So the idea that a Speaker can push a body politic in any direction he wants it to go is fallacious. ALL the Speaker can do is derail conservative (or liberal) legislative efforts, which in turn will prevent conservative (or liberal) outcomes. But the Speaker cannot force voters to elect more conservative (or liberal) legislators, and he cannot force those conservative (or liberal) legislators to write more conservative (or liberal) legislation.

So whomever that reporter was, he or she is an idiot who doesn't actually understand the process.

(* I realize that not all republicans are VERY conservative and not all democrats are hard-leftists, but on average, republicans are more conservative than democrats.)

[Right2Carry]

As Charles stated earlier we don't know for sure how Turner would be on gun legislation.

Respectfully, yes we do know: https://votesmart.org/candidate/key-vot ... LVqwaOCOrV

While that voting record looks favorable, that is not total proof that he can't be swayed by an anti-gun constituancy. I stand by my statement.

The evidence already suggests that Straus IS swayed by the anti-gun establishment hence his democratic support.