2021: A Year in the Democrat Crime Wave

[Rafe]

There will be a lot about 2021 to mull over after the fact. But to start, ABC News posted an interesting piece on December 8:

'It's just crazy': 12 major cities hit all-time homicide records
https://abcnews.go.com/US/12-major-us-c ... d=81466453

Unsurprisingly, Democrat Mayor Lori Lightfoot's Chicago leads the pack overall in raw numbers. According to Axios, using data from the Cook County Medical Examiner's office released at the end of November, as of November 30 there have been 1,009 homicides in the county in 2021, 927 of which were gun-related. There was a sharp rise in 2020's homicide rates in Chicago, but 2021 has taken it up yet another level: the 2021 numbers are up almost 40% over 2019. And more than 4,100 people have been shot in Chicago through the start of December: an increase of 69% over 2019. Purely a coincidence that this has happened since Lori, with her wife Amy by her side, took office May 20, 2019? Of course we also know that Lightfoot shunned President Trump's offers of federal assistance to help with the crime in Chicago, and is now positively begging the Biden administration for just that.

New York City under Democrat Mayor Bill de Blasio is, of course, in the mix. It's unlikely his successor will be able to rapidly undo all the wrong that de Blasio did...if in fact he tries to do so. During 2020, New York's murder rate increased by 47% from the year before. And in November 2021 the city surpassed 2020's total. As of the end of October rapes, robberies, and felony assaults also were all up over YTD 2020.

But looking at homicides by relative rates paints another picture. The ABC News article shows that at least 12 cities have broken or tied annual homicide records as of the first week in December. And among those 12, five of them saw their previous all-time record just the year before, in 2020. Here's the infographic that accompanied the ABC News article:



A Fox News article on December 18 ("At least 16 cities see record homicides in 2021") expands the ABC News count from 12 cities, adding five new ones for a total of 17 (of those five, three of them saw their previous records in 2020). Let's take a look at those 16 in alphabetical order:

• Albuquerque, New Mexico; previous highest homicide rate was 2019: Mayor Tim Keller, Democrat, took office December 2017
• Atlanta, Georgia; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, Democrat, took office 2018
• Austin, Texas; previous highest homicide rate was 1984: Mayor Steve Adler, Democrat, took office January 2015
• Baton Rouge, Louisiana; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor-President Sharon Weston Broome, Democrat, took office January 2017
• Columbus, Ohio; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor Andrew Ginther, Democrat, took office 2016
• Indianapolis, Indiana; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor Joseph Hogsett, Democrat, took office 2016
• Jackson, Mississippi; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba, Democrat, took office 2017
• Louisville, Kentucky; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor Greg Fischer, Democrat, took office 2011
• Macon, Georgia; previous highest homicide rate was 1992: Mayor Robert Reichert, Democrat, December 12, 2007 to December 30, 2020 (first elected mayor of combined Macon-Bibb County; Mayor Lester Miller, Republican, took office January 1, 2021 (announced launch of Macon Violence Prevention (MVP) prevention program June 10, 2021)
• Milwaukee, Wisconsin; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor Tom Barrett, Democrat, April 19, 2004 to December 22, 2021; Mayor Cavalier Johnson, Democrat, took office December 22, 2021
• New Haven, Connecticut; previous highest homicide rate was 2011: Mayor Toni Harp, Democrat, 2014 to 2020; Mayor Justin Elicker, Democrat, took office 2020
• Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; previous highest homicide rate was 1990: Mayor Jim Kenney, Democrat, took office 2016
• Portland, Oregon; previous highest homicide rate was 1987: Mayor Ted Wheeler, Democrat, took office in 2017
• Rochester, New York; previous highest homicide rate was 1991: Mayor Lovely Warren, Democrat, January 1, 2014 to December 1, 2021; Interim Mayor James Smith, Democrat, December 2, 2021 to December 31, 2021; Mayor-elect Malik Evans, Democrat, will assume office January 1 2022
• St. Paul, Minnesota; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor Melvin Carter, Democrat, took office 2018
• Toledo, Ohio; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz, Democrat, took office 2018
• Tucson, Arizona; previous highest homicide rate was 2008: Mayor Regina Romero, Democrat, took office 2019

At least four other cities are nearing record homicide rates and might possibly exceed them by year-end:

• Greensboro, North Carolina; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor Nancy B. Vaughan, Democrat, took office 2013
• Houston, Texas; previous highest homicide rate was 1992: Mayor Sylvester Turner, Democrat, took office 2016
• Memphis, Tennessee; previous highest homicide rate was 2020: Mayor Jim Strickland, Democrat, took office 2016
• Oakland, California; previous highest homicide rate was 2006: Mayor Libby Schaaf, Democrat, took office 2015

Is there any possible trend or pattern we can distinguish here? Anything that we can see that might correlate these cities with their record homicide rates? Any pattern at all?

[Rafe]

We have to sneak a new forward-looking bill in here before the close of the year, this one from Washington State. The Washington legislature isn't dissimilar to Texas's: a bicameral body consisting of a House of Representatives and a Senate, with the legislature meeting every two years, though they meet on even-numbered years. Jay Inslee, Democrat, has been governor since 2013. The House had a split partisanship in 1998 and 2000, but has been a Democrat majority since 2002. In the Senate, Republicans had a one-vote advantage in 2002, 2014, and 2015 (the latter only because on Democrat caucused with the Republicans, probably causing much snowflake hand-wringing), but otherwise the Senate has been a Democrat majority since 1998.

Now comes this tidbit yesterday for the upcoming legislative session in Washington State:

Washington state lawmakers introduce bill that would reduce penalties for drive-by shootings
https://www.yahoo.com/now/washington-st ... 20774.html

Washington state lawmakers introduced a bill this month that would reduce penalties for drive-by shootings with the aim of "promoting racial equity."

The bill, introduced by Democratic Representatives Tarra Simmons and David Hackney ahead of the state's 2022 legislative session, would eliminate drive-by shootings as the basis for elevating a first-degree murder charge to aggravated murder in the first degree....

The aggravating factor that the bill would eliminate reads: "The murder was committed during the course of or as a result of a shooting where the discharge of the firearm… is either from a motor vehicle or from the immediate area of a motor vehicle that was used to transport the shooter or the firearm."

Rep. Simmons, who represents a district in western Washington, argued that "it’s clear that it was targeted at gangs that were predominantly young and Black."

I think back to the brutal surveillance video captured of a gang drive-by in Puerto Rico posted on this forum recently. If watching that--the shooters using illegally "switched" automatic Glocks to not only shoot their targets, but even come back and pump in several extra rounds, just to be sure--doesn't seem like an elevation of murder to aggravated murder, I don't know what does. Not to mention the number of incidents we've seen where there was significant collateral damage, even children in their bedrooms, from drive-by murders. It isn't easy to spray bullets from a moving vehicle and know where they're all going to go.

Given the number of felons out on bail because sentencing has become lax, and given the spiraling homicide rates in even smaller cities, seems like a perfect time to reduce the penalties for drive-by murders, doesn't it?

For those who want to see the details of the bill, it can be seen here: https://app.leg.wa.gov/billsummary?Bill ... tive=false. It is HB 1692 - 2021-22, titled "Promoting racial equity in the criminal legal system by eliminating drive-by shooting as a basis for elevating murder in the first degree to aggravated murder in the first degree."

[srothstein]

Am I the only one to look at this and say this chart is obviously a political hit piece? Look at Albequerque, highest since 2019. So it is higher than last year but not higher than two years ago. Is that really a record or even a trend upward? Look how many are labelled a record with it being the highest since 2020. Isn't every city that had a single murder in 2021 the highest since last year?

Is any city where it is labelled the highest since some year really a record? I thought the term "record" indicated (in cases like this) the highest number ever.

Yes, we are seeing an increase in murder and it is a problem. Philadelphia having 500 murders is a great increase since I remember it averaging about 300 back in the 80's. But Austin having 60 is not really that significant given the population comparison to Philadelphia and similar cities. And if 60 is significant, how can they ignore Dallas and Houston?

This chart shows that Fox News is playing the same games we complain about from other mainstream media - politicizing the news instead of reporting facts and letting us decide.

[Rafe]

Am I the only one to look at this and say this chart is obviously a political hit piece? Look at Albequerque, highest since 2019. So it is higher than last year but not higher than two years ago. Is that really a record or even a trend upward? Look how many are labelled a record with it being the highest since 2020. Isn't every city that had a single murder in 2021 the highest since last year?

Is any city where it is labelled the highest since some year really a record? I thought the term "record" indicated (in cases like this) the highest number ever.

Yes, we are seeing an increase in murder and it is a problem. Philadelphia having 500 murders is a great increase since I remember it averaging about 300 back in the 80's. But Austin having 60 is not really that significant given the population comparison to Philadelphia and similar cities. And if 60 is significant, how can they ignore Dallas and Houston?

This chart shows that Fox News is playing the same games we complain about from other mainstream media - politicizing the news instead of reporting facts and letting us decide.

Steve, I do believe the explanations aren't clear, but also that you might be misinterpreting what it's attempting to represent. Where indicated, the 2021 numbers do reflect an all-time record, the highest numbers ever. For example, it isn't that Albuquerque had a higher homicide rate than last year, but not higher than 2019. The year 2019 was the all-time previous record high for Albuquerque with 82 recorded homicides. I can't find a similar chart that includes 2020 and 2021 (see below), but in 2020 there were 76 recorded homicides in Albuquerque, and as of two days ago the 2021 number is 100. Other than those years, Albuquerque had only two years, 2018 and 1996, with a count greater than 56. The previous record before 2017 was was in 1996 with 69, so 2021 will end with at least 18% more than the prior record, in 2019, 28% more than the 2017 number, and 31% more than the longstanding 1996 record.



The ABC and Fox articles are from a few weeks ago and, of course, now we're nearing final numbers for the year. The counts shown represent new all-time record highs and that's why Dallas isn't on the lists. As of December 14, there had been 201 homicides in Dallas compared to 251 in 2020. That number was the highest in 16 years.

However, from what I can tell Houston should now be on the list. The issue may be that HPD releases official data only quarterly, the last report covering only through the end of October 2021. But other information is showing, as of December 12, that evidently Houston homicides are up about 18% over 2020, which had over 400 homicides. According to the local CBS affiliate, KHOU, as of December 16 the 2021 count was at 458, which would break the previous record from 1992.

Should all of this be using homicides per 100,000 population? Arguably, very much yes, and that would set a more comparable baseline...regardless of the fact that it's extremely difficult to gauge the real population residing in some cities. The numbers I can find show Dallas's population at 1,347,120; with 201 homicides (I would think likely to end the year a bit higher than that) that would be a per-100K value of 14.92. Albuquerque looks like a population of 562,281; if they end with 100 homicides that's 17.78 per 100K. Houston, with a population of 2,323,660 and 458 homicides would be at 19.71 per 100K.

It will be interesting to see the FBI UCR for 2021 when it comes out. But, yes; my point was also political and biased. It isn't just the pandemic that has led to increasing violent crime.

[Rafe]

A quick follow-on for Austin. Just found that yesterday at the Austonia website APD Chief Chacon is shown as saying the current homicide count is 89. Chacon said the increase comes down to one thing: "It's about guns. It's about gun violence and the number of illegally owned weapons that we have on the streets and have been seizing off the streets."

The website states, "Still, Austin's homicide rate of 9.25 per 100,000 residents is the highest the city's seen in 30 years." I get an even lower number if I base it on a population of 1,011,790 and 89 homicides: 8.8 per 100K, so I may be overestimating the population. Chacon also said that 2020's raw number was 48 homicides.

[srothstein]

Steve, I do believe the explanations aren't clear, but also that you might be misinterpreting what it's attempting to represent. Where indicated, the 2021 numbers do reflect an all-time record, the highest numbers ever. For example, it isn't that Albuquerque had a higher homicide rate than last year, but not higher than 2019. The year 2019 was the all-time previous record high for Albuquerque with 82 recorded homicides. I can't find a similar chart that includes 2020 and 2021 (see below), but in 2020 there were 76 recorded homicides in Albuquerque, and as of two days ago the 2021 number is 100. Other than those years, Albuquerque had only two years, 2018 and 1996, with a count greater than 56. The previous record before 2017 was was in 1996 with 69, so 2021 will end with at least 18% more than the prior record, in 2019, 28% more than the 2017 number, and 31% more than the longstanding 1996 record.

I might very well be misinterpreting the data, but if I am it is because the graphic is so poorly designed. If it is really a record, then they did not need any of the "highest since" lines.

I would like to think Fox News is better than this, but I have to be careful of my confirmation bias. I tend to get more of my national news from Fox than other sources, and they tend to agree with me more often than disagree. But I have no faith in the mainstream media and they are part of the MSM, so I need to be very careful of not holding them to my standards.

[Rafe]

I'm with ya. I think the attempt was to say something like, "Not only is 2021 going to be an all-time record, but the previous all-time record was just set in ____." I don't know how to design infographics like that, but maybe if instead of "Highest Since" they'd simply said "Previous Record" it might have worked a lot better.

[philip964]

https://stream.org/the-mainstream-media ... bout-1991/

Remembering 2021 just like in 1991.

In 1991- Not fall of USSR or great victory in Kuwait, but Anita Hill.

Today not crime, inflation, out of control Covid, Xiden’s promise, Afghanistan or the border, but Jan 6 and the attempted hanging of Vice President Pence.

https://www.businessinsider.com/capitol ... -6-2021-12

Here is the attempted hanging of Pence story.

[Paladin]

https://stream.org/the-mainstream-media ... bout-1991/

Remembering 2021 just like in 1991.

In 1991- Not fall of USSR or great victory in Kuwait, but Anita Hill.

Today not crime, inflation, out of control Covid, Xiden’s promise, Afghanistan or the border, but Jan 6 and the attempted hanging of Vice President Pence.

1991 was a great year! It this history of the world it was a amazing year!

Unfortunately the Anglo-American establishment needs a crisis to retain their immoral grip on power and to suppress our God Given rights. That quote:

The only thing they want you to remember about 2021 is what fits the narrative. And Jan. 6th is their “Reichstag Fire.” The thing they can use to gaslight us and control us for the rest of our lives. Or try to, anyway.

Is so true. as is this:

Likewise, in 2021, they want you to forget Afghanistan and Biden’s incompetence. They only want you to remember Jan. 6th.

Don’t let them drive the narrative. Don’t let them make you forget

Start the arrests. Prince Andrew for rape. Biden/Kamala for stealing the election. The Soros funded DA's and Judges enabling the crime wave. Those oligarchs and Royals who funded or covered it all up.