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by sawdust
Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:46 am
Forum: General Texas CHL Discussion
Topic: CHL holders to blame for increase in murders in San Antonio
Replies: 18
Views: 3673

Re: CHL holders to blame for increase in murders in San Anto

RoyGBiv wrote:
sawdust wrote:So, justifiable homicides are on the increase? Would that statistic imply that consequently there are fewer murders to report?
No... Although related, there is not a cause/effect relationship between the two.
Also... "Justifiable homicides" can be up a whopping 100% on a very small base while an equal quantity of reduced murders won't affect the overall murder rate.

To clarify.... Assuming justifiable homicides in Chicago are very low... say... 10 last year. When that number increases to 20 you have a 100% increase in "justifiable homicides". Even if that led directly to 10 fewer murders, a decrease of 10 murders in Chicago would barely affect the statistics.

Also... A "justifiable homicide" may have prevented a carjacking or armed robbery and not a murder.

So... No. ;-) :mrgreen:

Welllll. There you go, over-statisticalizing. :grumble

There may well be a possible/maybe one-to-one relationship; an event that was leading to a possible murder was, instead, maybe a justifiable homicide; ergo, there was one less murder to report. But that type of "statistic" is basically un-determinable as that would be an alternate universe, which cannot be fully defined.

I stand by my raw data regardless of percentages. :cheers2:
by sawdust
Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:36 am
Forum: General Texas CHL Discussion
Topic: CHL holders to blame for increase in murders in San Antonio
Replies: 18
Views: 3673

Re: CHL holders to blame for increase in murders in San Anto

To me, the story was short on valid information and long on vague innuendo and mis-placed logic. One interesting concept that was mentioned in the article - .....“The ‘duty to retreat' premise is that life should be saved at all costs, even if the life you're saving is someone who's attacking you,......".

So, justifiable homicides are on the increase? Would that statistic imply that consequently there are fewer murders to report?

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