Evidence of 48/13/39 as a workable strategy:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/pol ... 84678.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"The UT poll shows McCain running ahead of Obama statewide, with a 51 percent to 40 percent margin."
Take a couple points from McC and one point form BO and there you are.
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Return to “Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr”
- Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:41 pm
- Forum: Federal - 2008
- Topic: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
- Replies: 39
- Views: 24860
- Sat Oct 25, 2008 8:05 pm
- Forum: Federal - 2008
- Topic: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
- Replies: 39
- Views: 24860
Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
First: each party chooses a slate of electors. If your candidate wins your party's electors cast all ballots for your candidate. Other party electors sit home and mope. So no Repub or Dem or Lib elector casts a vote for any other candidate.
By the way I am a Rep. party precinct chair, my wife a precinct judge and we have been attending conventions from the precinct level to state for over 28 years. Every four years electors are chosen purely as an honorary recognition for long standing party support. I've sat in too many congressional caucuses for too long listening to folks tell why they should be electors. Choosing electors is second only to national delegates in time spent in caucuses. So why am I doing this? Because a lot of Repub's in the party are disgusted too, they just don't have the fortitude to do anything about it.
Second: Not from me. The thing that makes 48/13/39 work is that popular vote leader gets all.
Third: If there were any chance by the candidates internal polling, which is much more detailed than the general stuff we see, BO would be spending money here. He won't even give any of his $600 million to any local races. McC would have a least sent Palin here once. TX may not be 100% McC but it's at least 90%.
Fourth: a healthy number won't vote Lib or other. McC's got 39% of the solid tow the party line Repub vote for sure, just like BO will get his 39% in TX. Convincing more of the remaining 22% to go BO is most likely statistically impossible. I admit it's a numbers game, sort of a crap shoot but...............
If this keeps up I may actually get to 100 posts on this site after nearly 3 years.
I'd like to post this strategy over at TFL or THR but those mods over there have no stomach for political debates. Kind of sad.
By the way I am a Rep. party precinct chair, my wife a precinct judge and we have been attending conventions from the precinct level to state for over 28 years. Every four years electors are chosen purely as an honorary recognition for long standing party support. I've sat in too many congressional caucuses for too long listening to folks tell why they should be electors. Choosing electors is second only to national delegates in time spent in caucuses. So why am I doing this? Because a lot of Repub's in the party are disgusted too, they just don't have the fortitude to do anything about it.
Second: Not from me. The thing that makes 48/13/39 work is that popular vote leader gets all.
Third: If there were any chance by the candidates internal polling, which is much more detailed than the general stuff we see, BO would be spending money here. He won't even give any of his $600 million to any local races. McC would have a least sent Palin here once. TX may not be 100% McC but it's at least 90%.
Fourth: a healthy number won't vote Lib or other. McC's got 39% of the solid tow the party line Repub vote for sure, just like BO will get his 39% in TX. Convincing more of the remaining 22% to go BO is most likely statistically impossible. I admit it's a numbers game, sort of a crap shoot but...............
If this keeps up I may actually get to 100 posts on this site after nearly 3 years.
I'd like to post this strategy over at TFL or THR but those mods over there have no stomach for political debates. Kind of sad.
- Sat Oct 25, 2008 3:06 pm
- Forum: Federal - 2008
- Topic: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
- Replies: 39
- Views: 24860
Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
That is what 48/13/39 is all about. Not only do I desire to move the Repubs to the right but make the Dem's really show how liberal they are so their is a clear discernible difference between them. Any third party anywhere on the political spectrum will force the other two to some extreme. A moderate party, which is what McC really wanted (witness his preference for Joe Lieberman for VP), would have forced the Repubs to the right and the Dems to the left. A whack Green party would force the Dems to the middle and the Repubs further conservative. You'd significantly reduce the impact under the two party system where everybody runs to the murky middle to win the so called independent/moderate vote. Then catering to and keeping your base would really matter.
- Fri Oct 24, 2008 7:45 pm
- Forum: Federal - 2008
- Topic: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
- Replies: 39
- Views: 24860
Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
Skiprr I'd agree with you if I lived in OH, PN, FL or another swing state. There you have to vote for McC. But in states that are locked up for one or the other candidate, especially a BO state, a vote for Barr is salvo against the Northeast liberal Repubs that have so diluted the Repub. party. Look at so many moderate Repubs endorsing BO. The McC and inside the beltway Repub's strategy was supposed to attract independents, moderates and right leaning Dem. That strategy failed miserably so I believe we must continue to fight and not settle for the lesser of two evils once again.
I would say, however, that the best place to decide these issues is the primaries but that doesn't mean you don't just drop your principles or opportunities just because it's a general election.
I would say, however, that the best place to decide these issues is the primaries but that doesn't mean you don't just drop your principles or opportunities just because it's a general election.
- Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:07 pm
- Forum: Federal - 2008
- Topic: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
- Replies: 39
- Views: 24860
Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
Winning by a landslide or winning by a few votes is still a winner. However also winning by a landslide or by a few votes determines how strong a president we will have. Make no mistake I do want McC to win. BO would be a disaster on too many levels. I just want a weak McC. Hopefully then if he is still able to run in 012 he will decide not to run. I also want the powers that be to take a lesson from this election. Imagine if in CA or NY, two states secured for BO, if Barr were to get more votes than McC. I would hope that would cause a stir in the Repub party. Maybe even make the conservative voters take a more active role and re-energize conservatism in the Repub. party. I realize the moderate NE Repubs won't go down easy but 1980, 1984 and 1994 proved that a well articulated, principled conservative candidate/s can win handedly. Anyway, I can't see much future in a Repub party moving to the left just to keep up with the Dem's as they move even further to the left.
- Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:06 am
- Forum: Federal - 2008
- Topic: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
- Replies: 39
- Views: 24860
Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
In TX there is no party affiliation. No independent primary. You choose your party affiliation on primary day and if you want to vote you have to vote in the Dem or Repub primary. If you've been paying dues to the Rep. Party of TX or National Rep. party you could stop that but in TX you don't have to register with a party. The only thing voting in a primary gets you in TX, party wise, is you can only vote in the runoff of the primary you voted in. If you didn't vote in a primary then you can vote in either runoff if both exist. You can say your and independent, moderate, progressive, or feral voter but in the end you gotta vote Dem or Repub. in the primary.
More on TX going for McC: http://www.270towin.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Click on TX, scroll down a little, click on the more about TX and you'll see why 48/13/39 works.
For a little historical perspective consider the last governors race. Perry got 39% just the diehard Repub's voted for him as it will be for BO, just the diehard Dem's will vote for BO.
More on TX going for McC: http://www.270towin.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Click on TX, scroll down a little, click on the more about TX and you'll see why 48/13/39 works.
For a little historical perspective consider the last governors race. Perry got 39% just the diehard Repub's voted for him as it will be for BO, just the diehard Dem's will vote for BO.
- Wed Oct 22, 2008 4:18 pm
- Forum: Federal - 2008
- Topic: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
- Replies: 39
- Views: 24860
Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
Don't mean to insult anyone but Kalrog gets it. The rest are trapped in this majority vote mindset. Which is why the plan works. So few understand the electoral college and how politicians play it. Why do you think BO and McC are spending no time in TX, CA or NY. They don't care about the majority vote. Cause there all wrapped up. A vote in CA for Barr is not, repeat not, a vote for BO. A lot of people, especially party officials, want to see their party garner the most votes because many state election laws are set up to favor parties that get high vote counts. It's their way of keeping a 3rd party from rising up. If there is one thing that Repub's & Dem's can agree on is there ain't no way their going to allow a 3rd party to rise up.
In TX if Barr gets 10%, McC gets 45.2% and BO gets 44.8% McC gets all the electorial votes. No way BO pulls more than 42% in TX. The reverse is true for CA & NY. It is a numbers game and that is all.
In TX if Barr gets 10%, McC gets 45.2% and BO gets 44.8% McC gets all the electorial votes. No way BO pulls more than 42% in TX. The reverse is true for CA & NY. It is a numbers game and that is all.
- Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:27 pm
- Forum: Federal - 2008
- Topic: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
- Replies: 39
- Views: 24860
Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr
My voting strategy for 08 is to vote for Bob Barr as I am in Texas and this state will almost for sure go McCain. In fact any state that is already going one way another allows true gun rights, conservative liberty supporters quite an opportunity. Consider TX, if McC gets 48%, Others (Barr et all) 13% and BO 39% then McC gets all the electoral votes. It is amazing how few people know how the electoral votes are distributed. To get all the electoral votes you only need the most popular votes not the majority of votes. Even when explaining it people still don't get it which will guarantee McC takes TX. If in CA or NY which will undoubtedly go BO then a vote for Barr doesn't change anything. What I'd like to see is McC win with less than 50% of the vote, BO get around 40% and others pick up the rest. I personally think BO's popularity will shrink in the voting booth. Basically, what I believe will be best given our pathetic choices from both the Dems & Repubs is a weak McC presidency where no elected rep will stand with him. When he backpedals on drilling for oil few Repubs will go along with him, when he tries for amnesty for illegals nobody goes along with him. He is basically a lame duck from day 1, gridlock reigns supreme. And we get a strong foreign/military policy too. Tis a wonderful thing.