Depends on how you want to look at it. This is akin to saying you don’t think it’s a good idea to fly ( fill in the blank) airlines because you read where one of their planes crashed.So the number that really matters for someone who is comtemplating OC'ing regularly in urban areas is 5/160.
It only has to happen once for it to be a very big deal.
This myopic view of things completely ignores that the plane had flown for 25 years, made tens of thousands of take-offs and landings, and traveled a distance equal to going to the moon and back several times over.
I provided you the figures in my previous post to illustrate what I have written above.
I think it more accurately depicts what happens when people OC. I didn’t do that to support my position, as much I did to reveal what I feel is a very important point.
frankie_the_yankee wrote:
Here, you are trying to persuade us that the “chance� for a snatch is “100 to 1� for any person that OC’s (consistent with the average above). You do this by trying to reduce OC to its lowest common denominator. That succeeds in producing a number that appears on the surface to be something of concern (just like the airplane).
If the chances of a snatch are 1.5 million to 1, and in the course of a year I encounter 15,000 opportunities, (OC for 150 days @ 100 opportunities per day) the chances of a snatch or attempt in that year are 100 to 1.
Problem is, it ignores the huge amount of variables involved. I would wager that I could OC the rest of my life and NEVER experience a snatching (or an attempt). My lifestyle, my demeanor, my travels, my training, etc….just about guarantee I won’t have a problem. The exact opposite could be said of someone else.
Yet, by your calculations….we all have exactly a “100 to 1� chance of being the victim of a snatch!
No Sir, anyway you spin that….it just doesn’t work.
That is why I presented you with the “opportunities per day� figure. Besides being a more accurate depiction of what OC really involves, it tends to show that most people, most places, are not out to “get your gun�.
That should be soothing news to you.
It doesn’t mean we should let our guard down, it doesn’t mean it “couldn’t happen�.
Still, if we look at your figures (only because they are right there above us), it pans out like this:
160 people OC an average of 150 days and encounter 100 other persons (potential snatchers) per day.
That equals 2.4 MILLION opportunities for someone to snatch a pistol from the 160 persons cited, during the course of a year.
Now, when we look at this way (and not the plane crash way), what we find is quite revealing:
It means: Of 2.4 MILLION “people� (that is what an “opportunity� is, a person) 5 chose to snatch (or attempt to snatch) someone’s pistol.
It also means: 2,399,995 people DID NOT! That tells me that I needn’t walk around in perpetual fear of my fellow man.
I am equally aware that BG’s don’t come in “numerical order�. I realize too, that the very first time I OC’ed, someone “could� try me. But, per the stats, I am confident I’ll be O.K. and suggest that you would be too.
Keep your eyes open, be reasonably aware of your surroundings and don’t stay where trouble appears to be brewing.
So, each person… with regard their lifestyle and concern for their personal safety, must take the numbers presented above and apply them as they see fit.
To me, its very much about how you perceive potential threats.. and your view of life in general:
Is the glass half empty, or is the glass half full?
I like jbirds sig. line as well:
You can either despair that the rose bush has thorns, or you can rejoice that the thorn bush has roses.
You decide,
Flint.
Sorry, Chas. This really is my last contribution.
Where do you come up with these analogies?
I fully share the sentiment.
