Search found 7 matches

by J.R.@A&M
Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: General Legislative Discussions
Topic: Its Time to Texit.
Replies: 85
Views: 39117

Re: Its Time to Texit.

OneGun wrote: Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:33 pm PTR,

You put a great deal of thought and care into articulating your viewpoint. I agree with some of your points, but not all. Most importantly, while you make a good argument for Texit, I firmly believe that establishing Texas as an independent country is much more complex than I think people appreciate.

The replacement of the services provided by the Federal government would not be a simple task. Take something like the postal service. While many people pay bills electronically, many people that live paycheck to paycheck still pay bills by mail because they don't have a banking relationship with a financial institution. Many people depend on the postal service and check cashing services. In addition, replacing the Medicare would be extremely hard. While Obamacare was a disaster for the general population, many people over 65 depend on Medicare. That replacement cost alone would be extremely difficult for senior citizens with health problems to afford if they weren't able to work because of their health. Could Texas absorb the cost of providing a Medicare replacement? I have my doubts given the magnitude of the costs. Finally, there are the numerous details that would need to be ironed out to establish trade, currency, defense, citizenship, diplomacy, credit, etc. if Texas became independent.

In simple terms, the idea of being an independent country is appealing, but the devil is in the details. Also, with Texas' major cities being Liberal Democrat enclaves, I wonder if many people in Texas would really back a Texit. I know, a referendum would answer that question. But the referendum would not present all of the details.

One lesson I took away from the Brexit vote, is that many people voted for the concept of Brexit, but that many people did not appreciate the consequences of Brexit. My firm has an office in London. Many people in that office are from other countries and may have to leave Great Britain because of Brexit. Many people from Great Britain that work in other parts of the EU will have to relocate back to Great Britain. The EU and Great Britain have not resolved the trade issues.

I believe that if the people that voted for Brexit were presented with all of the details, consequences, changes, etc. that goes along with Brexit, the results of the referendum would have been much different.

Those are just my thoughts.
This
by J.R.@A&M
Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: General Legislative Discussions
Topic: Its Time to Texit.
Replies: 85
Views: 39117

Re: Its Time to Texit.

PriestTheRunner wrote: Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:12 am Yall ready yet?
I've been binging on Hulu since Thanksgiving, watching Homeland, the original Showtime series about clandestine spy stuff. There are a couple of seasons focusing on the attempts by Russia to unravel U.S. society, U.S. elections, etc. by way of social media disinformation and muckraking. This thread makes me wonder.
by J.R.@A&M
Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: General Legislative Discussions
Topic: Its Time to Texit.
Replies: 85
Views: 39117

Re: Its Time to Texit.

~ Texas would have between the 7th and the 10th ranked economy worldwide ***** Not necessarily. The size of the present economy is partly the result of the stability of the current political/legal system, not to mention the relative stability of the U.S. currency and bond markets. You can't assume that all of those positive influences will continue in an independent Texas.

~ Texas has its own, fully independent electrical grid.*****Who owns it? If it is not State property, are you proposing that the State "nationalize" it?

~ Texas has its own water.**** The State has some water. Private landowners also own some water. Mexico and the United States own, by treaty, some water. Overall, Texas is a water deficit place, west of I-35. Texit raises more issues than solves in that regard.

~ Texas surpasses Saudia Arabia in oil exports, and provides ¼ of the United States (minus Texas) oil.**** The State doesn't own relatively much oil. Private and corporate concerns own the oil. Not all of those concerns are now or would remain residents of Independent Texas.

~ Texas is 6th in wind-energy production. ******** We have the wind, I'll give you that. However, the industry is privately owned. How investment in this or any other industry would evolve in an Independent Texas remains to be seen.

~ Texas is home to 51 of the Fortune 500 companies. ****** Not all of those concerns are now or would remain residents of Independent Texas.

~ If Texas spent the average of 4% GDP on defense, we would be 10th in the world on defense spending, on par with Germany, Japan and India. This would be roughly twice the spending of Isreal, Italy and Australia. Texans make up about 12% of the current US military and account for 11.5% of the US population. With a Texas economy and attitude, defense would not be an issue. ****** The issue of defense raises a lot more issues than it answers. Say what you will about wasteful spending by the military industrial complex, at least they have economies of scale that Indep. Texas would not have as much of. Israeli defense is backstopped by Amerian defense spending. Would Indep. Texas enjoy the same relationship?
by J.R.@A&M
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: General Legislative Discussions
Topic: Its Time to Texit.
Replies: 85
Views: 39117

Re: Its Time to Texit.

PriestTheRunner Finally, back on taxation… Texas sends about 265 Billion dollars annually to the Federal government, but only gets back about 162 Billion. [b wrote:In other words, if ALL Texas dollars were kept in Texas, we would have a 100-120 Billion Dollar surplus to lower Texas taxes and keep in Texan’s pockets[/b].
The biggest potential error is to assume that independent Texians would continue to benefit from a relatively stable currency and financial markets in a post-Texit world.

Think what you want about the Federal Reserve and the dollar. The relevant comparison here is not the U.S. dollar now-versus-then. It is the U.S. dollar-versus-Turkish lira, and/or U.S. overnight borrowing costs (2%) versus Turkey (19%). (Pick any other country that you want... the point is the same).

If Texas were an independent country, your and my wealth would be more at risk, I think, than it is now. I am as proud of my State as anybody, but the forex and bond markets could not care less. That is the one thing I can agree on with James Carville (re: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-jd0q9r1w).
by J.R.@A&M
Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: General Legislative Discussions
Topic: Its Time to Texit.
Replies: 85
Views: 39117

Re: Its Time to Texit.

PriestTheRunner wrote: Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:01 pm Third Point:
To those of you who think Texas wouldn’t survive on its own, here are some surprising details:
~ Texas would have between the 7th and the 10th ranked economy worldwide
~ Texas has its own, fully independent electrical grid
~ Texas surpasses Saudia Arabia in oil exports, and provides ¼ of the United States (minus Texas) oil.
~ Texas is 6th in wind-energy production
~ Texas is home to 51 of the Fortune 500 companies
This "owner-operator" viewpoint is oversimplified. The State doesn't own all these resources and industries -- private entities do. Who knows what those entities would do if Texas was separate from the U.S.? I don't, but I wouldn't just assume that everything would be/cost the same as it did before. I wouldn't assume that the State's economic performance would necessarily be the same. It's one thing when companies, executives, workers, etc. just relocate to a different state -- perhaps more difficult if it were a different country. Too many questions for easy extrapolation.
by J.R.@A&M
Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: General Legislative Discussions
Topic: Its Time to Texit.
Replies: 85
Views: 39117

Re: Its Time to Texit.

PriestTheRunner wrote: Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:01 pm Third Point:
To those of you who think Texas wouldn’t survive on its own, here are some surprising details:
~ Texas has its own water
Not really. Texas shares the Ogallalla with four states. Texas shares the Rio Grande with two states and Mexico. Texas shares the Pecos, Red and Sabine Rivers with neighboring states. Much internal flood control and dam construction, including the Brazos and Colorado basins, is subsidized by the U.S. Army COE.
by J.R.@A&M
Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: General Legislative Discussions
Topic: Its Time to Texit.
Replies: 85
Views: 39117

Re: Its Time to Texit.

PriestTheRunner Finally, back on taxation… Texas sends about 265 Billion dollars annually to the Federal government, but only gets back about 162 Billion. [b wrote:In other words, if ALL Texas dollars were kept in Texas, we would have a 100-120 Billion Dollar surplus to lower Texas taxes and keep in Texan’s pockets[/b].
The potential error here is that the calculation may ignore a lot of other "overhead" government obligations, e.g., defense, currency stabilization, R&D, etc. that are not reflected in federal transfers to individual states, but that the latter do benefit from. If Texas had to take on all these additional overhead costs, it changes the calculation.

Further, some chunk of what Texas individuals send away in Federal tax collections are taxes on income that is federally derived, e.g., salaries paid to military folks stationed in Texas, grants/contracts paid to contractors, etc. Taking that out of your equation also changes the calculation.

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