The "seven times" number is all crimes, as reported by DPS. Murder is almost seven times (6.6) for 2006. Negl. homicide should not be included in any calculation because the numbers are absurdly low for both CHL's and the general population. (In 2006, CHL's = 1; general population = 45). If you combine murder and negl. homicide, you artificially increase the CHL crime rate, albeit still very low.Douva wrote:Does that number include all crimes or just violent crimes? We've been using "five times less likely" (or one fifth as likely), based on our analysis of murder and negligent homicide convictions from 2002-2006. But if you've got the data to show that "seven times less likely" (or one seventh as likely) is more accurate, we'd obviously prefer to use that, since it's a more compelling argument.Charles L. Cotton wrote:Please note the CHL holders are seven times less likely to commit a crime than the general population, not five times. This number is based upon the analysis I had done in 2008 and it is based upon the figures fro 2006. I have not had the work updated to include 2007 yet, but the raw numbers indicate CHL's will do even better compared to the general population.
The only reason I bring this up is that the "seven times better" figure has long been used by Gov. Perry, several Senators and House members, including the 2009 "authors" of the campus-carry bills. I don't want the media or opponents of campus-carry to argue that our track record is poorer now than in 2009.
Chas.
We (NRA, TSRA, me, Governor, Senators, House Members) have use the "seven times" number because 1) it is an overall number; and 2) it is conservative. If I/we were looking for the best number possible, we'd use burglary (3800% better), robbery (6310% better), or point out several crimes that have no convictions of CHL's.
Obviously, SCCC can use any numbers it wishes, but I think the "seven times" figure is more representative of the overall great track record CHL's have earned. It's also the number that has been accurately used by key political figures since 2008. If you choose not to use that number, then serious consideration should be given to dropping the negligent homicide and going only with the murder rate which is very close to the "seven times" figure (i.e. 6.6 for 2006). Either way, "we" will continue to use the "seven times" number and it would be better not to have two different figures used in the media and cause confusion with people who don't follow this issue as closely as do we. Also, using "five times" will give our opposition the opportunity to argue that CHL's are less responsible than in prior years and the public won't care about the fact that different crimes were used to get those numbers.
Chas.