TexasCHLforum.com

ELB wrote:There is an error in the 2004 numbers in the report CHL crime comparison 2002-2015.

The Active License Holders for that year should be 239,940, per the DPS report at https://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/r ... tr2004.pdf. The CHL crime comparisons 2002-2015 has 239,863 for 2004, the same as the preceding year, which is what tipped me off. It doesn't make a huge diff (barely makes a small diff) in the calculations or conclusions, but it is not right.

Thanks, I fixed the error. As you noted, it didn't change the ratios because it was off by only 77 people. I find it hard to believe that the CHL population went up by only 77 people in a year! My how times have changed.

Chas.

RoyGBiv wrote:Made a data presentation suggestion here: http://www.texaschlforum.com/viewtopic. ... 5#p1107010

Probably better fit for this thread. Apologies for the dup.

I have that data in the full spreadsheet with all of the details making up the summary I post. I don't post the entire analysis because 1) it's far too detailed for most folks; and 2) I don't want people to get lost in the weeds/details. The legislature uses what I post and I want them and their audience to be focused.

Thanks,
Chas.

DPS has published the crime stats for 2015 and the LTC track record gets better every year. There was a population correction for 2014 that changed the ratio. For 2014, LTCs were 20 times (actually 19.7) less likely to commit a crime than the general public. For 2015, LTCs are 21 times less likely to commit a crime.

The LTC population increased by 111,462 Licensees, but the total number of crimes by an LTC actually went down slightly. This is nothing less than astounding folks!

Remember, the crime figures for the general population published by the DPS are for persons age 21 years and over. That's the only way to make a comparison with Licensees. Therefore, the crime figures posted will be different from the overall crime stats for the State, because those will include people who are between 17 and 20 years of age. In other words, the DPS data and my analysis are conservative because the total number of crimes for the general population would be higher if they included crimes committed by people in the 17 - 20 year old bracket.

Keep up the good work LTCs! I want the folks in Austin to explain to me why we need to retain any off-limits areas for LTCs.
Chas

DPS has published the crime stats for 2014. The numbers just keep getting better, much better! For 2014, Texas Licensees are 22.2 times less likely to commit a crime than is the general population (GP). in 2013, the general population had an overall reduction in crime of 19.6% which reduced the GP to CHLs ratio to 12.12 times less likely. The reduction in the ratio was the result of better crime figures for the GP, not poor performance by CHLs.

In 2014, the crime by the GP went down another 7.7%, yet the GP to CHL ratio still skyrocketed by over 83% to the current 22.2 times less likely to commit a crime. This is amazing folks. While the increasing number of licensees is certainly a factor in the percentage, the number of total crimes by Licensees went down from 158 to 111. That’s a total reduction of 47 (29.7%) at a time when the Licensee population went up 217,909 (30.8%).

Remember, the crime figures for the general population published by the DPS are for person age 21 years and over. That's the only way to make a comparison with Licensees. Therefore, the crime figures posted will be different from the overall crime stats for the State, because those will include people who are between 17 and 20 years of age. In other words, the DPS data and my analysis are conservative because the total number of crimes for the general population would be higher if they included crimes committed by people in the 17 - 20 year old bracket.

Keep up the good work LTCs! Of course, Bloomberg liars will ignore the truth but that's nothing new.
Chas.

The data for 2013 has been updated in the original post. I had uploaded the spreadsheet for 2013, but I got busy and didn't have time to upload the "Per 100,000" comparisons for 2002 - 2013 and for 2013 as a stand-alone document. I also forgot to update the text in the post. Everything is now up to date.

Chas.

Rrash wrote:I notice it spiked considerably in 2013. Just curious, are many of these convictions tied to one offender? There seems to be a large number of sexual assault with a child and child indecency convictions, for example. All in all, it's an astoundingly small number, but I could see Bloomberg saying that crime stats among CHL's almost doubled over the last 2 years, for example.

With the miniscule number of CHL convictions, even small increases represent a large change in terms of percentage. Total CHL crimes went up by only 38, while the total number of CHLs increased by 123,198! As you noted, one person could account for more than one crime, but that information is not available.

Chas.

DPS just released crime stats for 2013. I will do the detailed analysis when I have time, but based upon a CHL eligible population of approximately 19 million Texans, CHLs are 16.74 times less likely to commit a crime than is the general population. This number will change when I get the exact number (yeah, right) of Texans age 21 and over, but the change will be insignificant.

Chas.

ELB wrote:

Charles L. Cotton wrote:Thanks guys!

I've added another file that covers crimes per 100,000 for 2002 through 2012, so the following data is available:

• 1. Crimes per 100,000 for 2002 - 2012 in pdf;
  2. Crimes per 100,000 for 2012 (most recent DPS data) in pdf;
  3. Detailed crime data for all crimes from 2002 - 2012, including crimes per 100,000 in Excel.

...
Chas.

The two .pdf links in the OP go to two different PDFs of the same document, the 2012 rates per 100K. The 2002-2012 one appears to be missing.

Just scroll through the pages on the 2002-2012 document, all the data is there.

Chas.

Thanks guys!

I've added another file that covers crimes per 100,000 for 2002 through 2012, so the following data is available:

• 1. Crimes per 100,000 for 2002 - 2012 in pdf;
  2. Crimes per 100,000 for 2012 (most recent DPS data) in pdf;
  3. Detailed crime data for all crimes from 2002 - 2012, including crimes per 100,000 in Excel.

I have found that the crimes per 100,000 are much more meaningful to almost everyone, than are the detailed data. This is largely because people don't understand and appreciate the fact that a change of 1/10 of one percent is significant with a population of 18+ million people. I have presented the crimes per 100,000 both as a stand alone 2012 file since that is the most recent data released by DPS, as well as for the entire study period of 2002 - 2012. This makes it easy for people to print only the most current year or the entire study, whichever is most useful for their application.

Chas.

I just noticed something about this thread. It has been viewed over 20,000 times. That's great to see because it means a lot of people are getting the message. I know from comments I've received from our folks in Austin that these stats are widely used during the legislative session by a lot of people. BTW, the downloaded totals clear and start over every time I upload new files, so you can't g by those numbers.

Chas.

The spreadsheet has been updated to include 2012 data recently released by DPS. The numbers just keep getting better! In 2012, CHLs were 17.19 times less likely to commit a crime than the general public and this was up from 15.66 in 2011. That's almost a 10% improvement on an already excellent track record. I can't wait to see the numbers for 2013 since the CHL population jumped from 584,850 to 708,048.

So tell us Speaker Straus and Chairman Pickett, why exactly are there any remaining off-limits areas for CHLs?

Chas.

TEA wrote:This is a great recourse. The way that DPS posts their data is hard to get much of value from, as they only have the arrest numbers and then the percentage of arrestees that are CHL holders. Without know the total number of CHL holders as a percentage of the population, it doesn't do much good to know what percentage of those arrested for crimes are CHL holders, as the significance of that percentage would go up or down depending on the total number of CHL holders in relation to the overall population. DPS does provide the statistics of number of CHL holders, but it is in a different set of tables and would be a pain in the backside to combine the two sets of numbers and do a proper statistical analysis. You have done a great job here, sir.

Since you started this thread back in 2008, am I correct in assuming that you have been updating this spreadsheet annually as DPS posts? If so, would you be willing to share those other spreadsheets? A data set spanning multiple years would provide a more convincing argument when I bring my proposal for allowing concealed carry on our college campus before our faculty association at the end of this month.

I have the data going back to 2002 and it's in the spreadsheet. The pdf is only the last two years and only the comparison per 100,000. I need to update for 2012 since DPS has now released that data.

Chas.

I've added a two page pdf sheet that compares the crimes per 100,000 for 2011 and 2010. Crimes per 100,000 are a lot easier for most people to understand because a change of 1/10 of 1 percent with a population over 18 million people is far more significant than many folks appreciate.

Chas.

baldeagle wrote:Charles, can you make this post a sticky so it stays at the top all the time? I use this information quite regularly and have to search for it each time I need it.

And thank you so much for maintaining this invaluable source of factual information about Texan CHL holders.

It was a sticky, but since there are a few in that section, it wasn't on top. I made it an Announcement so it will always be at the top of the General CHL Discussion forum. Thanks for the suggestion.

Chas.

I had to upload another copy of the Crime Comparison spreadsheet, due to the minor bug that cropped up during the migration to the new server.

Chas.