TexasCHLforum.com

Sorry for the delay in presenting this folks, but it had to be distributed to some people first. As I stated earlier, the data shows the CHL program continues to be a huge success. CHLs have proven themselves to be responsible and law-abiding and the public deserves to know that the unscrupulous scare tactics used by opponents of campus-carry are refuted by clear and convincing evidence.

An Excel spreadsheet showing the data related to convictions of Texas CHLs and the general population in Texas over age 21 years is attached. All of this work was done by a UT engineering student who worked for me this summer. As you can see, she did a tremendous job putting this together. Just getting accurate population numbers for people age 21 yrs. and over wasn’t easy. Not only did she do all of the research, she chose the presentation method and put it all together. We all owe her our appreciation, as this data will be used extensively from now through the 2009 Legislative Session. Thanks Allison! (BTW, she’s the baby sister of one of our TexasCHLforum members.)

The data is presented in three different formats for both CHLs and the general population; Convictions Per 100,000; Total Convictions; and Percentage of Convictions (% of target population). There is a separate page showing the population by age group.

To most folks, the crimes per 100,000 is the most meaningful and easiest to use for comparison. There are a lot of people who don’t appreciate that a difference of one, two or three decimal places in a comparison is absolutely huge, so that’s why crimes per 100,000 is the most commonly used presentation method.

The DPS conviction reports set out on their website are presented in detail, but without a summary to aid review. The attached spreadsheets have both a summary sheet categorized for related crimes, as well as all of the individual detailed crimes set out on the DPS reports. This presentation format was chosen to aid review and comparison, while making it possible to verify that every crime reported by DPS is included in this spreadsheet.

Here are some examples of what the data shows for the calendar year 2006:

In 2006, there were 258,162 active CHLs, but only 140 total convictions.

Overall - The general population over age 21 is over 7 times as likely to commit any offense listed by DPS as are CHLs

Assault - The general population over age 21 is over 8 times as likely to commit an assault as are CHLs

Burglary - The general population over age 21 is over 38 times as likely to commit a burglary as are CHLs

Prohibited Weapons - The general population over age 21 is over 21 times as likely to be convicted of possessing prohibited weapons as are CHLs

Robbery - The general population over age 21 is over 63 times as likely to commit a robbery as are CHLs

I will not publish the data I have, but the track record of CHLs' is much better than that of law enforcement.

Thanks again Allison! If you folks would like to say thanks to Allison for all of her work researching an presenting this information, you can email her at Allison@TexasShooting.com

Chas.

I should have the comparisons available Monday or Tuesday. CHLs are still doing great.

Chas.

Kalrog wrote:Is there any information kept for LEOs in this regard? Are CHLs more or less likely to be convicted of a crime than LEOs?

A lady in my office got the population information I need and she's putting a spreadsheet together now. It will use all of the crimes listed in the DPS report.

Chas.

Now I remember why creating an accurate comparison was so difficult. DPS "total" conviction numbers is for persons age 21 and over, not age 17. Thus, it's necessary to have population numbers for all Texans age 21 and over to get an accurate comparison. However, population numbers broken down by age always show an age group starting at 18, typically 18 to 24. I'll have someone work on this at the office.

Also, the older spreadsheet I referenced was created at a time when DPS only reported the index crimes, not everything in the Penal Code. With more information available, it's important to get both an over total comparison as well as a comparison focusing on violent crimes.

Chas.

You cannot make a meaningful comparison of CHLs to the entire Texas population. You must first get an estimate of the general population age 18 (or 17) and over. Since Texas has a lot of people under age 18/17, that skews the percentages dramatically, lowering the percentage of crimes for the general population. Remember, unless they are certified as an adult, juvenile "crime" are not part of the overall crime statistics.

For a number of years, a comparison of the the stats for CHLs and the general population were maintained by an individual that posted on tx.guns a great deal. I verified his calculations and source data. I don't believe this information has been kept for several years now. At that time, the general population was 300% more likely to commit one of the index crimes than CHL holders. I don't believe that has changed.

When I get time, I'll try to create another Excel spreadsheet comparing CHLs and the general population.

Chas.