Bronco, I have no doubt you're probably correct about the cartels, although they have no problem firing on American LEOs on the U.S. side of the border. And you may well be right about the sheer numbers of MANPADS missing. But let's unpack that for a moment. Let's say they got 250 of them, heck, even 150 of them. And lets say that of that number, half actually get deployed to someplace where they can be used to bring down a commercial airliner. That's 75 MANPADS. And let's say that of that 75 deployed, only half get fired. That's 37-38 MANPADS fired. And lets say that they have a hit rate of 50% (reasonable, from the history of the weapon in past conflicts), that's roughly 18 airliners struck. And lets say that of that 18, half of them crash, killing all souls aboard, that's 9 airliners downed with loss of all aboard. And lets say that the average passenger load was 150 passengers and crew, that's a total of 1,350 innocents murdered with that small fraction of 20,000 MANPADS...........not exactly something to be sneezed at.bronco78 wrote:I have ZERO confidence in a report stating ANY country in one spot has 20,000 Man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS)… I doubt the US Military has 20,000 MANPADs period, let alone in any one part of the country.
Having trained, fired, MANPADS (only drones, but still) it is not a skill, one learns from the Anarchists Cook Book.
The entire assembly wither Russian, (trained, never fired) Chinese ( seen, book trained, never touched) or US,, are not the most robust, require very controlled handling, storage and maintenance. A large portion of the round, targeting assembly, battery pak (for those that have an external pack) will be non functional.
So, the raw number is likely a mistake.
The training is likely not there
The equipment is only going to be partially working.
And Why bother,, a cartel, can buy RIGHT NOW, a MANPAD, if that is what they desire.. one of several flavors, to include US.
United States
FIM-92 Stinger
Russia
SA-7 GRAIL 9K32M Strela-2
SA-14 GREMLIN 9K34 Strela-3
SA-16 GIMLET 9K310 Igla-1
SA-18 GROUSE 9M39 Igla
China
HY-5
QW-1
QW-2
QW-4
Europe
Javelin
Mistral
RBS 70
BUT.. you know what happens if a Cartel shoots down a DEA, Customs, ANY US aircraft? With a MANPADS??? Small parts of Mexico would be leveled in days, great parts cleared with ground troops over the following months.
For that reason, a CARTEL, who can now operate with reasonable impunity and unmolested by US forces, will not make that mistake… Now a True believer terrorist? That’s a different story.
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Return to “Est. 20,000 shoulder-fired heat-seaking missiles missing”
- Thu Sep 29, 2011 1:01 pm
- Forum: Off-Topic
- Topic: Est. 20,000 shoulder-fired heat-seaking missiles missing
- Replies: 39
- Views: 4277
Re: Est. 20,000 shoulder-fired heat-seaking missiles missing
- Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:44 pm
- Forum: Off-Topic
- Topic: Est. 20,000 shoulder-fired heat-seaking missiles missing
- Replies: 39
- Views: 4277
Re: Est. 20,000 shoulder-fired heat-seaking missiles missing
There is no spoon.Purplehood wrote:We see the Forest AND the Trees...The Annoyed Man wrote:Yes, but that is a (near) future threat. The currently missing 20,000 missiles are an immediate problem. We cannot afford to ignore what China, Pakistan, and Iran are doing, but neither can we afford to forget about those missing missiles.Beiruty wrote:You are missing the picture. China, Pakistan, and Iran all can fab cheap SAM-7 knock-offs. China specifically will sell you anything for a dollar.
As for Libya, Islamists are now in power and they will buy whatever arms they wish, money is not an issue, and control over said arms is nil.
![Mr. Green :mrgreen:](./images/smilies/icon_mrgreen.gif)
- Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:53 am
- Forum: Off-Topic
- Topic: Est. 20,000 shoulder-fired heat-seaking missiles missing
- Replies: 39
- Views: 4277
Re: Est. 20,000 shoulder-fired heat-seaking missiles missing
Yes, but that is a (near) future threat. The currently missing 20,000 missiles are an immediate problem. We cannot afford to ignore what China, Pakistan, and Iran are doing, but neither can we afford to forget about those missing missiles.Beiruty wrote:You are missing the picture. China, Pakistan, and Iran all can fab cheap SAM-7 knock-offs. China specifically will sell you anything for a dollar.
As for Libya, Islamists are now in power and they will buy whatever arms they wish, money is not an issue, and control over said arms is nil.
- Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:51 am
- Forum: Off-Topic
- Topic: Est. 20,000 shoulder-fired heat-seaking missiles missing
- Replies: 39
- Views: 4277
Re: Est. 20,000 shoulder-fired heat-seaking missiles missing
This is the consequence of a child playing at international relations in a grown up's world.