lws380 wrote:I keep hearing a 40% increase in applications. Ok, I'm not a math major but lets assume before the 40% increase excuse they took the entire 60 days to process. A 40% increase in time is then 84 days. Why then does it take 120 days or longer?
That's not the way it works.
Since we have been told about the 40% increase, let's look at some numbers.
For example, let's assume they previously received 100 applications per week and were just barely able to turn around the average application in 60 days.
With a 40% increase, they would now be receiving 140 applications per week, so 60 days later they'd have completed the original 100, but would still have 40 in process. The following week, they'd finish those 40, but only 60 of the next week's input, so would have 80 still in process.
If you follow the progression, in five weeks you'd have 200 "overdue" applications still in work.
It could only get worse.
Now let's assume they are allowed to hire temps to augment their workforce by 40% (not likely, but just suppose). You'd think that would start cutting into the backlog, wouldn't you?
But, no. First, you have to train the temps. Even if that took only a week, that's one more week that the backlog would grow by another 40 applications, because a fully qualified worker would probably be monitoring the newbie for a while. Then the 40% augmentation of the workforce would just keep pace with the increased rate of application, so you're now just breaking even, without whittling away at the backlog.
And that's assuming a steady even flow of new applications. If some external factor leads to a sudden increase, that whole bunch would gum the works up even worse.
That's not taking into account the parts of the process that are not under the control of the CHL section in Austin. You have the FBI background check AND the local check. If a particular county/city has only one trooper doing all the local checks, his/her workload just increased significantly, on top of the regular patrol/enforcement responsibilities.