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It occurs to me that 1860 style secession is not really in the cards. The economies of the States are too linked. Just the modern telecom and energy and other supply chain infrastructures are too interlinked to function with a total lack of economic (and therefore some level of political) cooperation between the States.

The issue is that over the last 120 years, way too much power has been ceded to the Federal government by the States. The remaining political remedy is to return much of it back. This would involve a significant shrinking of the central government and given the current state of politics and its corruption, I doubt that will happen. But who knows.

I foresee the following scenarios playing out:

The Federal government continues to grow in power and scope resulting a European style social welfare state with high taxes, regulations, and significantly curtailed freedoms, along with a low standard of living for 90% of the population.

States take back significant power from the central government, perhaps through an Article 5 convention, allowing different social and economic models in the States based on the desires of their populations and a looser Federation of "United" States performing the original functions of the central government in foreign affairs and national defense.

A soft secession, with states like Texas rejecting federal authority in many areas where it significantly goes against the interests of these States. Things like taking control of the border from the Feds. Refusing to enforce federal laws and ignoring federal court orders. States doing this would cause significant social and economic destruction to both themselves and the other states and central government. Perhaps some smaller scale armed skirmishes between Federal and State forces.

What I don't see is an all out Civil War II with massive armed conflict and complete geographic political separation.