TexasCHLforum.com

Just out of curiosity, I looked at the January through October (the most recent we have for 2020) NICS numbers for the 2016 election year, last year, and this year. I've stuck the graph in as an attachment because I didn't bother shrinking it down.

And, yep, everybody from the FBI to the NSSF warns us that we can't even bother to estimate firearm sales from NICS numbers. Granted. But I'd still opine that the numbers are a bellwether, at least indicative of trends if nothing else. After all, I have to think--with absolutely no data to back me up--that NICS checks in states that requires them for transfers plus the number of checks declined have to be fairly well offset by the number of new purchases without separate checks in states where carry licensing allows it.

Basically, though, these three years--2016, 2019, and 2020--represent the largest volume of NICS checks in the program's 22-year history. The 2016 election year outpaced the next nearest contender at the time by about 4.4 million background checks, or 19%, with a total of 27.5 million. That annual record stood through 2017 and 2018, and then we barely beat it in 2019 with 28.4 million.

The 2020 numbers may be an important factor in shutting up--at least if/until Biden takes the oath--the anti-gun mouthpieces. The graph pretty starkly illustrates that the coronavirus, rioting, and the threat of a Trump loss has led to a boatload of gun sales...and based on the last NSSF report, to a whole lot of people for whom these were first-time purchases. And we can judge for ourselves by the ammo shortages that these new purchases weren't for things like .270 Winchester or 7mm-08 Remington hunting rifles.

No single month in 2020 so far has seen numbers as low as the highest month totals of either of those two record-setting years. And that annual 28.4 million record in 2019? We're at 32.1 million for the first 10 months of 2020 alone. We won't see the effect of the actual election for another couple of months, but my bet is that we add another 5 or 6 million to that total.