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Increased from Cat 3 to Cat 4 just since 10:00 a.m. Maximum sustained winds have increased from near 125 to near 140 mph. Hurricane Center's 1:00 p.m. update included, "Some additional strengthening is possible this afternoon, and Laura is forecast to remain a category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight." Max peak storm surge is still 15 to 20 feet.

National Hurricane Center 10:00 a.m. update shows Laura now a Cat 3, sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph, and is projected to reach Cat 4 before landfall. Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the eye and tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. Landfall projection hasn't moved much, still zeroing in on the Texas-Louisiana border...but could still wobble before landing, and at this strength a minor wobble could be a very major deal. In the area of the greatest storm surge along the southwest Louisiana coast, the surge forecast has almost doubled in the past 36 hours: up to 18 feet of storm surge with some isolated places seeing 20 feet. The projection is that this will not only be massive at the coast (one-story structures would be completely inundated), but inland it will reach so far as to place I-10 under salt water.

Battening down hatches here and praying for those who will see the greatest impact.

The latest European model run is in and agrees with the slight shift westward that the 10:00 a.m. National Weather Center run showed. In fact, from what I can tell, The Euro model is a fraction more west than the last NWC run, putting the center of the cone of uncertainty closer to Port Arthur than Cameron, LA. It isn't expected to grow as wide as Hurricane Ike did, but it's now expected to make landfall as a Cat 3 and may arrive a tiny bit earlier than previously expected...as in before midnight tomorrow. It's going to reach pretty far inland, too, because there's not much to block its movement. Over a 70% chance of tropical storm force winds extends as far north as at least Shelby, Rusk, Cherokee, and Houston Counties. Possibly a lot of downed trees in the Piney Woods. Mandatory evacuation of the City of Galveston issued around 8 this morning; Harris County Zones A and B under voluntary evacuation as of an hour ago.

Extra preparation steps for me: making sure guns, ammo, and computer equipment are in the safest, driest spot.

Flightmare wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:11 am

tomneal wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:02 am A guy walks into a bar and orders Corona and two hurricanes

Bartender says "Sure, that'll be 20.20"

You guys are cracking me up.

Well, the meteorologists definitely fubared Marco's forecast. Now the heaviest rain is showing up east of New Orleans. Pensacola may get the worst of it. Dry winds from the southwest have kinda shredded it, but it's still forecast to turn west and head toward texas. The 10:00 a.m. National Weather Center forecast has moved its tracking cone a little to the north, though, staying to the north of the Houston area.

What I expected and they didn't do was revise Laura's cone, at least not perceptibly. It's still off Cuba so the talking heads at the Weather Channel are thinking the NWC is waiting until the next update, which would be 4:00 p.m. Central, so they can gather more data before altering the forecast. But they seem to all be expecting at least a slight westward change to the cone, bringing it closer to Galveston. And they keep happily pointing out that a more westerly landfall means the storm will be out over open water longer, so more time to strengthen. If rapid intensification happens, we won't see it start until tomorrow.

philip964 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:53 pm

Tex1961 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:24 pm Just please nobody say “I wonder what’s next”

"The Cabin the Woods."

I forgot all about the November 4 (approximate) meteor strike. Looks very possible.

Except the little guy is about 7 feet across. Which means it has pretty much zero chance of contacting the earth except as maybe little shooting star bolides after it breaks up and is mostly vaporized in the atmosphere. But I wish I'd have remembered it. Kinda rounds out global pandemic, extended rioting in U.S. streets, Biden for president, double hurricanes, meteor strikes earth.

The tracks have changed wildly the past 24 hours, but a record two hurricanes in the Gulf simultaneously. Looks like Texas will feel both of them, and now Laura is the one that looks maybe to be most problematic. A couple of hours ago Gov. Abbott declared a state of disaster for 23 counties in preparation, and asked the president to declare a federal emergency.

https://abc13.com/weather/gov-abbott-de ... s/6382325/

Marco's track looks like it will have the effect of pulling Laura in our direction, and some meteorologists think it also gives Laura prime ingredients to strengthen: warm Gulf water, a "soft" convection ceiling so that the storm can vent upward, and almost no possible wind shear in its way. NOAA is still saying landfall as a Cat 2, but some are guessing it might strengthen to a Cat 3 before it makes landfall. Ike made land as a Cat 2 and was a terror. If the cone of uncertainty shifts westward much more, then the center of the cone could put Galveston right it the middle.

What a year, am I right? First a global pandemic. Then antifa getting carte blanche in Blue cities to riot and loot and destroy property. Then Joe Biden becoming the Dem's nominee...during an election year like none ever before (with Joe hiding out in his basement for months). And now meteorological history in the Gulf. We'll know by tomorrow if Laura's forecast has shifted more toward Galveston/Houston.