The reason I noticed the error above is I was transferring some of the data from Charles' pdf file to an excel workbook so I could experiment with some graphical representations.
The thing that makes graphical representations so hard is that LTC'ers are so law-abiding and convictions so rare that when you compare them to any other number variables, from active LTCs to the population of Texas, the tiny little conviction rate is overwhelmed and vanishes to a puny little pixel of color at the bottom of the graph.
This is the only decent (graphically speaking) result I was able to come up with so far:
It would be interesting, in support of the bill to remove remaining prohibitions on LTC carry, to present the hearing committee with a chart that covers one wall entirely, and maybe part of the ceiling, and then point to a little bitty splash of color down by the baseboard and say,
"See that? Way down there by the baseboard? No, not that one, that big dot is a cockroach, look at the smaller dot. That's what the BradyMomsBloomersAgainstHonestCitizens says will cause untold carnage and bloodshed in the state of Texas if you don't disarm the other million or so LTCers."
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Return to “Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population”
- Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:14 am
- Forum: General Texas CHL Discussion
- Topic: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
- Replies: 141
- Views: 129850
- Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:17 pm
- Forum: General Texas CHL Discussion
- Topic: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
- Replies: 141
- Views: 129850
Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
There is an error in the 2004 numbers in the report CHL crime comparison 2002-2015.
The Active License Holders for that year should be 239,940, per the DPS report at https://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/r ... tr2004.pdf. The CHL crime comparisons 2002-2015 has 239,863 for 2004, the same as the preceding year, which is what tipped me off. It doesn't make a huge diff (barely makes a small diff) in the calculations or conclusions, but it is not right.
The Active License Holders for that year should be 239,940, per the DPS report at https://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/r ... tr2004.pdf. The CHL crime comparisons 2002-2015 has 239,863 for 2004, the same as the preceding year, which is what tipped me off. It doesn't make a huge diff (barely makes a small diff) in the calculations or conclusions, but it is not right.
- Tue Mar 11, 2014 2:12 pm
- Forum: General Texas CHL Discussion
- Topic: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
- Replies: 141
- Views: 129850
Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
Aha! turns out i needed reinstall acrobat -- it was loading slow anyway, something was not right. Thanks for doing this!
- Tue Mar 11, 2014 11:02 am
- Forum: General Texas CHL Discussion
- Topic: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
- Replies: 141
- Views: 129850
Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
The two .pdf links in the OP go to two different PDFs of the same document, the 2012 rates per 100K. The 2002-2012 one appears to be missing.Charles L. Cotton wrote:Thanks guys!
I've added another file that covers crimes per 100,000 for 2002 through 2012, so the following data is available:
...
- 1. Crimes per 100,000 for 2002 - 2012 in pdf;
2. Crimes per 100,000 for 2012 (most recent DPS data) in pdf;
3. Detailed crime data for all crimes from 2002 - 2012, including crimes per 100,000 in Excel.
Chas.
- Sun Feb 27, 2011 4:19 pm
- Forum: General Texas CHL Discussion
- Topic: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
- Replies: 141
- Views: 129850
Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
We should have a companion spreadsheet showing the conviction rate for Nanny Bloomer's "Mayors Against Illegal Guns." Should be an interesting contrast...
- Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:45 pm
- Forum: General Texas CHL Discussion
- Topic: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
- Replies: 141
- Views: 129850
Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
Ah, I see. That would indeed be a "truer" picture. But I would bet a small sum they don't do that; they just eventually get around to totting up the year's convictions and call it good. It is probably something of a chore to track down, or more likely, wait for, the status of each CHL holder arrested to percolate up from all the various jurisdictions. I'll bet this is not a front-burner project for them (especially during the time when they were taking heat from CHL holders and legislators about the delays in processing applications).Keith B wrote: ...My guess is they are using the year the crime was committed to compare it to the number of CHL's existing that year. That is the only way you can keep the stats consistent. Otherwise, you will be stringing out the convictions across multiple years, and the CHL license Numbers will be different and skewed.
- Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:16 pm
- Forum: General Texas CHL Discussion
- Topic: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
- Replies: 141
- Views: 129850
Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
Not sure I follow this; a conviction is one way the case is finalized, so I would think a conviction in 2008 is goes into the statistics for 2008. That's when it happened. He may appeal and it may take two or 10 years to get it overturned on appeal, but he is still "convicted" during the appeals. (Bunny trail -- I wonder if DPS goes back and updates the stats if a CHL convicted in 2002 wins an appeal in 2006?)Keith B wrote: Just a guess, but I would think since these are conviction statistics, you have to wait until all cases have been finalized. That can take 2-3 years plus at times.
Are you thinking of the time that it takes from arrest to trial to conviction? That can take a long time, but it would not affect the conviction statistics for a given year.
- Sun Jun 07, 2009 7:00 pm
- Forum: General Texas CHL Discussion
- Topic: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
- Replies: 141
- Views: 129850
Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population
I think some additional interesting statistics might be CHL holders compared with other populations such as legislators, teachers, university officials, members and would-be members of a certain president's cabinet, Brady Bunchers...