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by ELB
Wed Jan 02, 2008 6:49 pm
Forum: General Gun, Shooting & Equipment Discussion
Topic: Some Observations on Citizen Self-Defense Shootings
Replies: 13
Views: 2292

Re: Some Observations on Citizen Self-Defense Shootings

I've not made alot of headway in examining online newspaper accounts -- I am a volunteer firefighter, and there have been an amazing number of brushfires lately in south Texas! When I haven't been tamping out fires, I've been "recovering" (i.e. long naps -- I'm not so young anymore!)

Anyway, so far most accounts are still happening either at home or at a convenience store. Citizens generally emerge unscathed and victorious. Bad guys generally do not. One aspect I've been interested in -- "collateral damage" -- has not been mentioned in any account, and I am pretty sure that if anyone was accidently wounded by a stray shot, it would get reported. Curiously, details of the bad guys' weapons are more often reported than the citizens' weaponry.

I will keep plugging away at this for awhile, to see if these trends hold, and if anything else pops up.

Now I am going to turn to present neal6325's with a counter-argument.

I don't see at all that citizen defenders have an advantage over LEOs in "most" shooting situations, particularly the convenience store ones. Pretty much all the stories I have read so far (not just the 20+ I have documented), the citizen usually gets very little warning. The citizen's one advantage, yes, is that his handgun (usually) is concealed, but beyond that he starts out behind the power curve, has to overcome his surprise and fright, already has a weapon pointed at him, and has to retrieve his own from a concealed spot, or under the counter, or in the bedroom...and then shoot, we hope accurately. I suppose it is possible that every citizen that happens to end up in this situation is always in "condition Yellow," but I tend to doubt that. I think it is especially unlikely that most citizens are in Yellow while they are sitting at home or sleeping when the clown kicks the door in. (Hint -- do keep the door locked, however flimsy it is. Noise is good.) The burglar/invader is, presumably, wide awake going in and prepared to do some damage. I am going to keep an eye on the locations of individuals if reported in the stories. Seems to me that most accounts take place at the doorway or the bedroom.

As for the police -- I would like to know the stats on how many police shootings occur in an ambush "out of the blue" and how many occur after an officer has been called to investigate something (i.e. when he especially should have his radar up). Officers operate in a culture (I hope) that constantly reminds them to be looking for threats, to know that every encounter could go wrong quickly (thus the motto I have heard police instructors use: "Be civil to everyone, friendly to no one"). So presumably the LEO should already be in the right mindset, and may very likely have warning going in (because he is responding to a call) that he may have to act lethally. Are there cops that lose this mindset, or never attain it? I'm sure they do, hard to say "on" for anything day after day, but would hope most cops are better at it than most citizens.

Granted most officers are going to go farther than most citizens in pursuing a bad guy, and be more likely to get into a shooting match-- I would hope that at that point the officer is also at the highest state of alert and readiness to bring his training and ability to bear.

Once the LEO or the citizen has reached the point of "I am going to shoot," regardless of how ready or unaware he had been previously, I do not see the dynamics being much different between the two situations. The lawful use of lethal force is pretty much the same for both, tactical and moral considerations are pretty much the same (altho the LEO will almost always have a high capacity, semi-auto service pistol, and quite possibly body armor). I expect the better trained, more practiced individuals will hit more often, and prevail more often, than those who are not, regardless of LEO/citizen status.

Perhaps srothstein or another can comment on this. Or not! I'm sure this discussion could go on for days... ;-)

Now back to the articles.


elb
by ELB
Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:03 am
Forum: General Gun, Shooting & Equipment Discussion
Topic: Some Observations on Citizen Self-Defense Shootings
Replies: 13
Views: 2292

Some Observations on Citizen Self-Defense Shootings

There was a NY Times article published on 9 Dec 07 entitled "A Hail of Bullets, A Heap of Uncertainty," by Al Baker, which dealt with the issue of "Shoot to Stop" vs shooting to kill or wound, etc. That issue was dealt with in another thread on this forum.

(The article is here: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/09/weeki ... ref=slogin -- you may have to register and log in to see it)

However, one of the supporting arguments (not one that I would pick) for NYPD's shoot-to-stop policy is that they feel lucky if they hit their opponent at all, never mind killing or wounding him. The article cites a hit rate of 28.3% (103 hits out of 364 rounds fired) in 2006. In 2005 it was only 17.4% (82 hits out of 472 rounds fired). Interestingly, the LAPD did better in 2006, with 40% hit rate.

I believe the NYPD data is from what I have seen referred to as "SOP 9," an effort by the NYPD to track their shootings and use the data to improve things. I have read copies of previous SOPD reports, and the hit rates are typically poor - I don't recall reading of one over 30%. There's a whole bunch of interesting questions and discussions about training, lack thereof, methodology (e.g. point-shooting vs aimed fire) and all that -- but that's not the point of my thread today.

It did get me to wondering if anyone had done any serious study of citizen self-defense shootings. (Quick aside about a small pet peeve of mine: [rant] LEOs seem to refer to non-LEOs as "civilians." I am not an LEO and I am not a civilian. I have not been a civilian since I signed up 25 odd years ago, and I am still carried on the rolls of the Air Force, albeit in the Retired Reserve. Cops are civilians, unless they are in the military police of one of the services. Ergo, I refer to non-LEOs as "citizens". Yes cops are citizens too, but if irks you to that my usage implies you are not a citizen, then you have an idea of what I am thinking when a cop refers to me as a "civilian." ;-) [/rant])

I emailed Dr. John Lott to ask him if there are any studies of citizen self-defense shooting accuracy. His reply essentially said (i.e. I am summarizing and paraphrasing), "No. It's too hard to figure out."

So just for grins I went to Clayton Cramer's Civilian (grrr! :nono: ) Gun Self-Defense Blog http://www.claytoncramer.com/gundefense ... ogger.html, where he and a couple other guys collect online news accounts of self-defense using a gun. I am going through each story and totting up some data about these events, to see what I can see.

It's pretty clear I will never get any kind of count of rounds fired and all that just from these reports. Almost all of them are written immediately after the shooting event, when some, maybe most of the facts are unknown. Round counts are usually "multiple" or "single shot". or doesn't say anything at all about the round count. There are far fewer followup stories that contain more detail.

However, after trudging through about 23 of them so far (I just started yesterday), a couple trends are appearing (remember, this is a very small sample size so far):

- Most SD shootings happen at home. Convenience Stores are popular locations too.
- Burglars and other assailants fair very poorly -- if armed, they seldom get off a shot, and usually end up dead or wounded, and wounded or not, survivors get caught in time for the news story.
- Homeowners/Defenders/Convenience Store Clerks usually fair well -- seldom injured, usually hit their assailant(s)
- There are apparently quite a few misses, but NO reports so far of innocent bystander getting hit (I am pretty sure this would get reported if it happened). Few reports of what misses actually hit.

Interesting News Reporting Factoids
- Few of the stories even specify that the homeowner/clerk/defender actually used a gun, never mind whether it was a handgun, rifle, bazooka, etc - alot of stories simply say "He shot the burglar" or "The resident fired multiple shots."
- Assailants weapons are usually described: gun, handgun, knife, none.

More details and trends as I wade through these, at least until I get bored with it.

elb
USAF (Ret) :patriot:

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