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Jumping Frog wrote:

slr001 wrote:You don't need the best hand to win... Bet sizing, betting patterns, etc... Yeah getting dealt 72offsuit all night long would be "unlucky"...

It is what you do with the hands that is important.

While I agree that the betting and play of the hand is critical, even the best in the game need to be lucky as well.

All anyone has to do is spend a few evenings watching the WSOP "Main Event", and you constantly see PRO players making the correct bet if you look at the percentages, and then getting a bad beat by the opponent's lucky draw at the river. I've seen a low pair go "all-in" after the flop against trip aces. No one can dispute the trip aces are a heavy favorite. Then I've seen the low pair get a full house with the turn and river.

Skill improves the odds, but I don't believe for an instant that it eliminates probabilities and luck.

Jumping Frog,

I hate to continue this off topic Poker talk, but... (tldr)

I agree with most of what you said. But most professional poker players (and I am not a pro) chalk the situation you described up to variance, not luck. First of all there are two ways to have 3 aces. 2 in your hand and one on the board (called a "set") and one in your hand and 2 on the board (called "trips"). While both result in you having 3 aces, the former is much stronger for many reasons. The math says that a set of aces is going to get beat x% of the time. That isn't luck, that is statistics.

If you had a 6 sided dice, and needed to roll a 6 to win some money. 5 times out of 6 you are going to lose. If it costs you a dollar to play, and you can win 2 dollars, then you will lose 5 times or 5 dollars and win once for 2 dollars in 6 tries. Over a large sample size these are the expected results. It isnt about getting lucky and rolling a 6. That would be a bad game to play. Now if the game is the same, but it is bet 1 dollar to win 10 dollars. every 6 rolls on average you would lose 5 and win 10. So you would do roll those dice till your arm falls off.

All of that is to show that a set of aces losing to 2 small cards is not being unlucky. If a set of aces lose 16% of the time they are played (using equilab by pokerstrategy.com) AA vs random low cards on a flop of A54, AA wins 83.72% and loses 16.28%. So as long as the bet sizes are such that I win money more often that I lose... Give me 3 aces vs two small cards against the "luckiest" player in the world ALL DAY LONG. And I will print money. I could give plenty more examples... your AA vs my XX both clubs on a flop of Axx (two clubs)... I have a 25% chance to win if the bet is 10 to win 100 and I catch my club 1 out of 4 times I call all day long. And when I catch my club and beat you, I didnt get "lucky". You on the other hand make the bet 100, into a 100 dollar pot. Then I don't have the proper odds to call and I must fold my hand, and your aces win.

It isn't about getting "lucky" on a single hand, it is a game that needs to be looked at as making the correct decisions over a larger sample size. It is a game of math. And the casino IS NOT A PARTICIPANT.

mojo84 wrote:

Keith B wrote:

slr001 wrote:

Jumping Frog wrote:If that had been me, I would figure that I had used up all my luck on the drive and and wouldn't even have gone on to play poker.

I don't play casino games that require "luck". I play poker.

Still luck involved. You can be the best player in the world and be unlucky and draw bad hands.

Exactly. And when one applies too much skill, the casino calls them a cheater and kicks them out. Casinos aren't built on winners.

lol, you are confusing games. Poker isn't played against the Casino. You play against the other players. The Casino makes their money by taking a percentage of the pot. Someone could win every single hand and the Casino gets the same amount of money regardless. You might be thinking of blackjack. That is a completely different game, it isn't poker any more than paigow.

Keith B wrote:

slr001 wrote:

Jumping Frog wrote:If that had been me, I would figure that I had used up all my luck on the drive and and wouldn't even have gone on to play poker.

I don't play casino games that require "luck". I play poker.

Still luck involved. You can be the best player in the world and be unlucky and draw bad hands.

You don't need the best hand to win... Bet sizing, betting patterns, etc... Yeah getting dealt 72offsuit all night long would be "unlucky"...

It is what you do with the hands that is important.

Jumping Frog wrote:If that had been me, I would figure that I had used up all my luck on the drive and and wouldn't even have gone on to play poker.

I don't play casino games that require "luck". I play poker.

n5wd wrote:

slr001 wrote:...He actually asked me what weapon I had, and I told him it was a S&W 9mm Shield to which he kind of nodded his head. Found it a little odd that he asked about the particular weapon I had.

Why was that odd? Cops can be interested in guns, too!

Sure they can... But standing by the side of the road with traffic passing isn't probably the best time. I just thought it was odd that he asked.

Would be interested if others have had the officer inquire to what type/kind of gun you were caring after informing them you were.

Well I had my first encounter last night... It was with the police in Durant OK.

I was driving to Choctaw to play poker. I have made this drive many, many times. I drive with a radar detector, but most of the drive is signed for 70 or 75 mph. At the most I typically might be 2-5 over that.

As I was coming into Durant, I was a bit drowsy, and didn't slow down soon enough as the speed dropped as you enter town.

And seems the Durant PD just upgraded from KA band to Laser. Usually once you hear that go off you are already clocked. Sure enough he is soon behind me with lights flashing. I pull over, and as he approaches I hand him my DL and CHL. As I hand it to him I tell him there is a gun in the vehicle, he was in the process of asking as I was telling him. He asked where it was, and I told him it was in my bag on the passenger seat. I wasn't wearing it because they are banned in the casinos in OK.

He then told me he had clocked me at 68 in a 50 (it actually only drops to 55 there, so he may have mis spoke, or I may have mis heard). So ultimately I was doing 68 in a 55. I nodded in acknowledgment and told him I drive to the casino a lot, and always come through town at the proper speed limit, that I just failed to slow down this time. FYI, I have gotten my share of speeding tickets, and never once have I not been polite and taken my ticket. He asked me why I didn't slow down this time, and I told him I was a bit drowsy, and wasn't paying close enough attention, and hadn't slowed down soon enough. He handed me both the DL and CHL back and told me to go on my way.

Actually I was seriously surprised. 13 over in a small town. I did not expect to leave without a ticket. I chalk it up to being polite, and being forthcoming with my CHL and the fact that I had a weapon in the car. He actually asked me what weapon I had, and I told him it was a S&W 9mm Shield to which he kind of nodded his head. Found it a little odd that he asked about the particular weapon I had.