TexasCHLforum.com

stevie_d_64 wrote: An even more simple mathmatical or logical investigation could be utilized to justify this concept by going and getting the data from other states that "already" allow open carry by civilians (either licenced or not, to carry openly or concealed, in that state)...

Then see what the "snatch" factor is...

The data is (and has been over the years) obviously hard to find and may be skewed to not give a clear idea on how often or not this happens...

If someone ever does, and posts the data, we should give them a free subscription!

I agree that OC shold be legal here in TX and everywhere else.

Real data on snatchings has been virtually impossible to find.

But in the absence of it, nothing stops us from using our brains and common sense.

FWIW, if you go way back in this thread to where I quote an email sent to me by Mas Ayoob, we see that while he favors it being legal, he is "no fan of open carry".

I find myself very often agreeing with him, as I do in this case.

flintknapper wrote:I had hoped the application of simple logic and deduction would have administered the "coup de grâce" to this thread. But no........

Some people will not be persuaded. But, thats O.K. this is America.

What logic? You calculated the chances of a snatch or attempt per opportunity. But from your own methodology, it is clear that a sojurn through a populated area will expose someone to dozens if not hundreds of opportunities.

If the chances of a snatch are 1.5 million to 1, and in the course of a year I encounter 15,000 opportunities, (OC for 150 days @ 100 opportunities per day) the chances of a snatch or attempt in that year are 100 to 1.

Not to mention that the idea that a gun carried concealed is anywhere near as likely to be snatched as one carried openly is flat out absurd on its face. If it is properly concealed, no one knows you even have it.

Nice try Flint.

The chance of a snatch per opportunity is only relevant if someone only was going to expose themselves to one opportunity.

But if someone is going to OC regularly, they are exposing them to many opportunities, actually, many thousands of opportunities as you have estimated.

So the number that really matters for someone who is comtemplating OC'ing regularly in urban areas is 5/160.

It only has to happen once for it to be a very big deal.

Basically, I believe that is it obvious that a gun in the open is more easily snatched than a concealed gun is. I have seen no argument that proves otherwise. To be honest, I cannot even conceive of what such an argument might look like.

I carry to improve my chances in the unlikely event of a criminal attack. I'm not on a crusade. If I want to educate people, I'll write a letter to a newspaper. I'm too old and weak to accomplish much with martial arts training. I have no desire to lug around bulky retention rigs.

For me, increasing my potential risk by OC'ing in urban areas is simply not on the menu. And I would not recommend it for anyone who does not have to do it in the course of their job.

flintknapper wrote: If you are in a plane crash...yours odds of survival are pretty much zilch.

IF your gun were snatched, that is probably all you will lose besides your wallet.

A gun represents deadly force. The BG could assault or kill you or someone else later on using your gun. Either way, that is a very serious thing.

flintknapper wrote: Not one single incident you provided involved the death of the person who was "snatched". If they had been killed... they certainly wouldn't have posted about it would they? Where do you come up with these analogies?

See above.

flintknapper wrote: In the polls... ONE person on OpenCarry said he had his gun snatched. On the other site THREE people make the claim. Have you noticed that on neither site...has anyone voting that way entered their name or made a comment?

4 out of 150 or so is A LOT to me. It certainly shows that it happens, even in a small sample.

How many CC'ers can you find that have had their guns snatched?

flintknapper wrote: Not even the ones saying they don't carry out of fear of being snatched. Isn't that odd?

Not correct. Some people on THR have commented as such.

flintknapper wrote: Currently on THR we have 78 reporting no problem. 3 say they have been snatched.

On OpenCarry the numbers are: 70 reporting no problems. 1 says snatched.

We can add the four that reported being snatched to the ones that carried in urban areas, along with the 7 on the tape that was posted. That will bring us to 159 to 4. I am sure I could find at least a dozen more here:

http://opencarry.mywowbb.com/forum54/18.html
http://opencarry.mywowbb.com/forum54/79.html
http://opencarry.mywowbb.com/forum54/3427.html
http://opencarry.mywowbb.com/forum54/3995.html

Do you see the trend?

Despite the small sample base (deemed imperfect by me many times), the numbers are plain. Every person will need to assess the risk factor for themselves.

They sure are plain. Out of 159 people there have been 4 who reported snatchings or attempted snatchings. To me, that is clearly a high risk, much higher than for CC. And don't forget the guy in Centerville, VA. He didn't respond to the poll, (neither did the 7 VCDL people) but the successful gun snatch is documented in a police report.

So it is 5 snatchings or attempts out of 160 people in total.

flintknapper wrote: You repeatedly challenged anyone for numbers/statistics/events. I have tried my best to accommodate you.

I commend you for it. You've done a good job. Especially since your numbers make my point.

OC in urban areas is clearly much riskier than CC, just as I had surmised.

Maybe we can do another poll asking people if they CC in urban areas and if they ever had their guns snatched or attempted to be snatched.

I can provide the first vote. I've been CCing in urban areas for 15 years now and I have never had anyone attempt to snatch my gun.

NcongruNt wrote: Do you know if there's any specific statute concerning the family connection? I've not turned anything up so far. While I agree that a reasonable LEO wouldn't see any reason to charge me with failing to conceal while showing my dad my pistol in the privacy of his own home, I could envision being questioned by an LEO about open carrying on my brother's property (plainly visible from the road) while working on a fence. He knows the area and knows I don't live there. When he stops to ask me about it, he charges me with intentionally failing to conceal because I do not own, control, or keep residence on the property.

If you were working on a fence, wouldn't that be "agricultural" work? I thought there was some kind of exemption for people engaged in farming or ranching - a "cowboy rule" if you would.

Maybe someone can find the statute and post it (assuming it exists).

But again, I favor allowing for open carry in TX to cover this and other situations that are presently questionable under current law.

flintknapper wrote:

TX Rancher wrote:
Until we have OC and many folks carry, we won’t have a statistically significant population that will allow us to actually define the probabilities…until then all discussions on pro’s and con’s are just speculation…good to have and we should continue them…but they’re still just speculation.

Exactly!

1) All or the examples tx rancher gave of when/where he would open carry are "rural" situations. I'd probably OC myself in some of those situations.

2) So you're saying that OC is practiced too rarely to have a statistically significant population to define the probabilities, right?

3) Doesn't that sound something like my somewhat less formal formulation that the reason we don't hear of a lot of snatches is because so few people do it? (OC that is.)

4) Since we don't have enough data to calculate a reliable probability, does that mean that we should simply OC blindly because some people tell us that it is a great thing? Or because some people pooh-pooh the possible pitfalls by simply saying that they don't happen or don't happen very often? And we should just take their word for it even though we don't know who they are, what their agenda might be (if any), and whether they know what they are talking about or not?

Or should we, in the absence of reliable statistics, use our powers of inductive and deductive logic to predict the likely (and unlikely) consequences of open carry?

This is no game. The decision to OC or not can have life and death consequences. I'm certainly not going to risk my life merely on the say so of someone who says, "I OC all the time and I've never had a problem.", on the internet. (or anywhere else for that matter) Or, (even less relevant) "I OC because I don't want to ask the gov'mint for permission to carry."

Nope. I'm gonna use my head, examine possible scenarios and situations, maybe try a few "experiments", and figure out what to do using the brains that God gave me.

BTW, at the present time, the THR poll shows 3 people have checked the "I OC and have had a snatch or attempted snatch", not counting the one who says he checked it by mistake. There are 61 who say they OC and have never had a problem, and 6 who say they do not OC out of concern of a possible snatch.

So 3 out of 70 respondants have had snatches or snatch attempts.

Hmmmmm................. Hoooooda thunk it?

Would you get on an airplane if you knew that 3 out of 70 flights ended in crashes?

flintknapper wrote: I see you didn't get too warm a reception over there.

Actually, if you read the whole thread there is quite a broad spectrum of opinion. Some favor OC, some believe, as I do, that it has tactical disadvantages in some situations, and some are opposed to OC.

One person who frequently OC's says he CC's when he visits Philladelphia, essentially for tactical reasons.

flintknapper wrote: I should start my poll there too, it may turn up some info.

Could be interesting.

flintknapper wrote: Did you notice this guys post:

Biggest group of open carriers I ever saw in public was more than 100, felt pretty safe that day.

Yes. But no detail was provided so it's hard to say what it means. They could have been cops for all we know.

Please note that I fully acknowledge that in the case where 2 or more people are OC'ing together, the tactical situation completely reverses so as to favor OC. A BG may decide that an individual OC'er might be an easy mark, but reason tells us that taking on 2 armed individuals would be far more difficult. A BG can only assault one at a time, right? And the other person, who the BG can plainly see is armed would have an opportunity to bring their weapon to bear while the BG is occuppied going after the first person.

That is a risk that almost no BG, or group of BG's, would decide to take, IMO.

I started a thread on thehighroad.org

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.p ... 730&page=2

Here's a recent post.

I "OC'd"

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As a security guard, one of my co-workers had his gun snatched
(he had no retention training) I caught a guy reaching for mine (the hairs on the back of my neck actually warned me) after that I bought retention holsters, they're worth the money.
My current strategy is to conceal but I like open for those really hot days...I'm thinking of getting a a S&W 642 to conceal better and so I could join that thread over there in revolvers....I'm so fashionable sometimes...why isn't there a sp101 club.....oh yeah....topic.

OC is legal here in NV but I never see it, I like it being legal so if I print or someone see's it I'm not actually breaking a law.
I wish we had some sort of right, like free speech or freedom of the press, for firearms.
It would be nice to be able to keep and bear arms without having to worry about jail all the time.
__________________

Another OC gun snatch. And an attempted snatch. Another guy who "never" sees people OC-ing even though it is legal where he lives.

Love the reference to the 2A at the end! I fully share the sentiment.

Good data point. Thanks.

I found the link to the OC discussion on thehighroad.org that Mas referred to in his email to me.

I read the whole thread. It looks clean to me. The thread concerns OC in general. It includes opinions from people who absolutely favor OC, those who would like the option to OC, and those who see little value in OC. In other words, a fairly broad range of opinion on the subject.

One member questioned whether gun snatchings ever happen. Another responded with a report of an incident in VA that happened last July. It's on page 2 of the thread.

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.p ... rab&page=2

Here's the story itsself.

http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/police/...wtonPatton.htm

A man open carrying a handgun had is stolen from him
Man robbed in the Centreville area

About 4:10 a.m. Sunday, July 30, officers were called to the area of Newton Patent Drive and Newton Tavern Drive. A 21-year-old Centreville-area man was robbed while walking on Newton Patent Drive. Two suspects approached the victim from behind, and placed a metal object up to the victim’s head. The suspects took the victim’s hand gun which he was openly carrying. The suspect’s then fled the area. The victim was not injured.

The suspects were described as black males wearing dark clothing.

Anyone with information about this incident or these suspects is asked to call Crime Solvers at 1-866-411-TIPS (8477) or the police non-emergency number at 703-691-2131.

I checked out opencarry.org. They have a section on OC in the Centerville, VA area. No mention of this incident in the time period around 7/30/2007.

Oh well.

flintknapper wrote:

frankie_the_yankee wrote: . But keep in mind that it is not only "kills" that are important. Injuries from assault (with their own gun) are also properly included.

Here ya go: http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/killed/2005/assaulted.htm

Knock yourself out.

Already been there. Doesn't break out snatch incidents unless I missed it.

I'm looking for thehighroad thread myself. When I find it, I will post the link.

Meanwhile, here's a link to an article that Ayoob wrote that mentions two private citizen snatches. They both involve gun shop owners who were carrying openly in their shops and were ambushed. (The article was for "Shooting Industry" magazine.)

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m ... i_17608787

And yes, I know that the number of cop snatchings will be small. I just want to see what it is. But keep in mind that it is not only "kills" that are important. Injuries from assault (with their own gun) are also properly included.

BTW, two more LEO snatch cases come to mind from memory. One happened in Atlanta where a female deputy was killed by a (much larger and stronger male) prisoner she was transporting when they were alone in an elevator. This was several months ago or possibly last year. The other was the recent prison break in Huntsville where the female guard was ambushed and assaulted while on horseback and had her gun snatched and was subsequently run over by the BG driving a stolen truck. (I know that technically, she wasn't shot but her OC'd gun WAS snatched.)

So we know it happens, even to trained cops.

Here's an interesting article on open carry.

http://www.personaldefensesolutions.net ... ourGun.pdf

anygunanywhere wrote: Our right to open carry, if we choose to do so, should be returned to us.

I agree and have never posted otherwise.

anygunanywhere wrote: If you do not want to open carry, then don't. No one is forcing you to do so. Concealed carry all you want. That is up to you.

I happen to believe concealed carry is better in urban environments due to the value of tactical surprise and the dangers of having one's gun snatched in crowded situations. Others take issue with this and appear to maintain that snatching is not a problem. IMO, this is bad advice.

anygunanywhere wrote: There are very few verifiable instances where an individual had their weapon snatched while OCing.

If there were only one it would be too many for me. I only have one life. And I carry to ENHANCE my tactical situation - not to complicate it. I don't want to have to walk around town "all puckered up like a frightened turtle" (to coin a phrase). I'd rather have an ace in the hole.

T

anygunanywhere wrote: These few instances do not add up to any reason to ban OC. If you use that reasoning, it amounts to the same ban on firearms the antis use. Requiring retention training to OC is nonsense, based on the few instances of snatching.

OC is our right. I see no point in arguing about it. Again, when OC is returned to us as an option, I will when I want to. I have OCd when visiting OC Gold states. Try it. You will like it.

Anygun

I agree that we should have the OC option.

I have tried it in a "gold state" (AZ). I did not like it.

I OC on my ranch all the time. I like it there. I would also like not having to worry about the wind blowing my vest around, etc.

Here's a quote from the National Law Enforcement Training Center Homepage.

Jim Lindell developed the LVNR® System in 1970, while Supervisor of Physical Training for the KCMO Police Department Academy. The system was medically researched and extensively field tested, and has proved to be safer, more effective and less controversial than any other known neck restraint method. The LVNR® was updated in 2002 with a new text and video. In 1976, he developed the Handgun/Long Gun Retention and Disarming (HLGRD) System in response to crime statistics indicating that in 1975, 20% of the officers killed were killed with their own handguns. The NLETC is the sole certifying body for these two systems.

Note that the stat cited is for 1975. So far, I do not have a more recent stat. But I still think it is interesting in that 1975 probably represents a period PRIOR to common use of weapon retention training for cops. And since most private citizens have not had this training either, it eliminates one variable.

BTW, here is Ayoob's response to my email.

While I'm not a big fan of open carry as a concept, I'm in favor of keeping it available as a legal option.

There's a thread at http://www.thehighroad.org where a case of an armed citizen's open carry gun being snatched is documented.

For current gun snatch figures, do a Google search under Jim Lindell and National Law ENforcement Training Center.

best,
mas
massadayoob@aol.com

Still looking for more recent gun snatch data.