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by K.Mooneyham
Thu Sep 09, 2021 12:56 pm
Forum: General Gun, Shooting & Equipment Discussion
Topic: Why are ammo manufacturers so bearish about investment?
Replies: 16
Views: 8974

Re: Why are ammo manufacturers so bearish about investment?

AlaskanInTexas wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 11:41 am I could be wrong, but it seems that we have been in an almost perpetual state of ammunition shortages and high prices. We talk in terms of the 2020 shortage, but I can't think of a time in recent memory where ammo was fully stocked and reasonably priced for any meaningful length of time. It's been one shortage after another without really catching up in between.

According to my research, most manufacturers say that it is a demand side issue - lots of new gun owners, panic buying, etc. They are addressing it by running factories 24/7, working employees ragged, and maybe occasionally adding a new facility or machine. This obviously is not sufficient. When asked why they don't make major capital investments to bring supply up to the demand levels, they all say that they are not sure where demand is going to settle out. They don't want to overinvest and have to potentially mothball facilities or lay off workers.

I just don't get it. When was the last time that there was a glut of ammunition? Not in my memory. It seems pretty obvious that demand is going to stay above current production levels with no signs of slowing down. Plus, there is so much pent up demand. People who would readily buy bulk quantities to replenish their stock, but are holding off due to lack of availability and high prices.

I work professionally with a lot of manufacturing industries and all of them would have jumped by now and invested major capital.

Thoughts?
Businesses may be started by people who had an idea to create a product or service to sell to people. It may employ people who create that product or service. It may employ people who market that product or service. However, those aren't the people RUNNING any business. The people who really run the business are those who MANANGE it: paperpushers and beancounters...and THOSE folks know that THEIR paychecks hinge upon NOT spending money to the greatest extent possible, versus the amount of money they can bring in. NOT to make money for the company, but to make money for themselves. The larger the business, the more likely this is to be true. That dovetails with Jerry Pournelle's "Iron Law of Bureaucracy":

"In any bureaucracy, the people devoted to the benefit of the bureaucracy itself always get in control and those dedicated to the goals that the bureaucracy is supposed to accomplish have less and less influence, and sometimes are eliminated entirely."

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