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Samurai,

While I agree that most of the people who do these types of shootings will not face an armed response, I am not as convinced that they deliberately look for places where the victims will be disarmed.

I think they look for places where there will be large gatherings of people, especially if they have some grudge against the group they have identified. School shootings for example are most often targeted against the school members due to perceived treatment of the shooters.

The coincidence is that most of the places we normally tend to gather have int he past been made victim zones. Schools are victim zones, churches are victim zones (outside Texas but we started that way also), sporting events are victim zones, and most malls have made themselves into victim zones (well, at least the law did not do that).

When you start to study mass shootings, the ones that jump out are the best known due to media, and they were almost all based on some group grudge. Add workplace shootings tot he list and you will start to see the pattern. This makes the ones that do not fit jump out, and there are only two that come quickly to mind (and I am not sure if they fit or not). The first was the shooting at the Amish school in Pennsylvania and the second was the mall shooting in Salt Lake City.

I have not done exhaustive research in this, and I could be wrong, but my initial impression is that the gun free victim zones and the appearance of the shooters is more coincidental than their choice for unarmed victims. It might be that this analysis needs more research so we can argue for or against removing any restrictions on carrying.

My suggestion would be to take a report on the shootings at the Colorado church to the pastor. Point out that the person that stopped the criminal was just a citizen with a CHL. She may have had law enforcement training in the past, but she was just a CHL.

Then show him the reports on Columbine and Virginia Tech. Ask him if he would rather have someone on hand who could stop the criminal immediately or wait for the police response?

That should convince him.