Please don't let me kill this Topic. Just use that handy scroll bar to your right if of no interest.
We could have a friendly, non-monetary wager if the law passes.mr1337 wrote:I disagree. I think the $140 state fee is enough to weed out all but the most dedicated of people. It's not something you "just get into" because it costs so much money.
Parameters to be named later.My contention would be that the fingerprinting and detailed background check is the primary reason people potentially interested in a license choose not to pursue it.
Various sources commingle dates and data, and some of the data can't readily be distilled for the purpose of talking about CHL/LTC. But here's a very rough and dirty breakdown of why I'll contend that $140 (or $70)--while a barrier that should be removed and that would be a big win for Texas 2A to do so--probably takes a backseat to background check and actual or perceived possibility of ineligibility, and the requirement to put your name and detailed history in "the system."
Total population of Texas: 27,469,114 (this is the U.S. Census Bureau estimate as of July 1, 2015, http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/48; gotta draw a line in the sand somewhere, and this seems about as good as any)
Population of illegal immigrants in Texas: About 1.9 million (source is a 2012 figure from Pew Research, http://www.pewhispanic.org/2013/09/23/3-state-patterns/, with roughly 200,000 added to adjust for the 2012 to 2015 count; probably conservative; and yes, there are definitely more illegal aliens in Texas than there are CHL/LTC holders; pause and consider)
So let's start with a total potentially eligible Texas population of 25,569,114, not including age or other factors.
Population of Texans under 21 years of age: About 8.05 million (same source, but census estimates are for under 18 years, none for under 21; Census.gov estimated the former at 26.3%, so I added a conservative 3% to equal 29.3% to account for 18-, 19-, and 20-year-olds)
=17,519,114
Population of Texans who are either current or ex-felons: About 1.5 million (source is a Princeton research study through 2010, http://paa2011.princeton.edu/papers/111687; I'm extrapolating the count using 8.6% as the national estimate applied to the subtotal of 17.5 million Texas population; some may be illegal immigrants, and Texas has a stiffer incarceration rate than some other states, so I consider this a conservative figure)
=16,019,114
Population of Texans who already have an LTC: About 1.1 million (I believe once we see the calendar year 2016 report from DPS, that number will actually be higher; so again a conservative number)
=14,919,114
Now some numbers that aren't exclusions, but factor in.
Population of Texans over 80 years old: About 770,000 (source is a Texas Police Academy Profile document on aging, https://aoa.acl.gov/AoA_Programs/HPW/Be ... /Texas.pdf, which puts that demographic at 3% of the total population; not that they can't apply for an LTC, but at 81 and over, are unlikely to)
=14,149,114
The math gets fuzzier, but I think still relevant.
Population of adult working-age Texans who have a criminal record, even if not convicted of a serious crime: About 5.84 million (source, Brennan Center for Justice, New York University School of Law https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/just ... e-diplomas, and a 2012 U.S. Department of Justice Survey https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/bjs/grants/244563.pdf, extrapolated for the Texas population count of adults; these folks are not necessarily ineligible for an LTC, but may be far less likey to apply due to skeletons in the closet)
=8,309,114
Population of adult working-age Texans who are legally disabled: About 1.15 million (source, U.S. Census Bureau estimate as of July 1, 2015 with its 8.1% figure applied only to the subtotal of 14.15 million)
=7,159,114
Population of Texans who do not have a firearm in the home: About 62%, or 4,438,650 (source, Pew Research 2014 study, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... ouseholds/; let's make the assumption that we'll use the net 7.16 million population count to be conservative, and apply the 62% figure only to that)
=2,720,464
Population of adult working-age Texans at the federal poverty level: About 1,321,149 (U.S. Census Bureau estimate as of July 1, 2015 with its 15.9% figure applied only to the subtotal of 8.3 million)
Of course the data are not accurate: you can drive a truck through some of the gaps.
But if you step back and look at it as a whole, I think we make far too many assumptions based on the total population of Texas and how current licensees make up only 0.3% of it. That's a specious, invalid starting point. We have to first factor in all of the population who are legally ineligible and then, if you're a diligent business person building a marketing plan, also factor in those who are your most likely universe of prospective buyers.
Even if you're extremely generous about people who fear a background check or who don't want (at least right now) to even consider buying a gun, you have to figure that in the 21 years the CHL/LTC program has been in place, we have already tapped around 20% of the existing market. By the numbers, only 15.9% of the remaining available market would be prohibitively constrained by the fee.
So, no: if and when SB16 passes, I do not foresee a tidal wave of new applicants. Just as Obama has been our greatest gun salesman, I think he and Hillary have been our greatest LTC marketeers.
I just don't think the state application fee of $140 or $70 represents a significant economic barrier to a new flood of eligible applicants.
A geekish aside. Pardon me again.
The only expansion to the current LTC universe of prospective buyers comes from people turning 21, people moving to Texas who are legally eligible to apply, and people who rethink their position on guns and decide to buy one.
As a retired business guy, if I were an LTC instructor I would focus on those three market segments, analyze and subdivide them, and put all my marketing effort on those targets, not just generic "we're a good source for LTC training" or "look at our military/police qualifications" messages. That ain't gonna fly in 2017 and beyond.
Many LTC instructors do it only in support of the 2A and the community. But if you do it as an income source, IMHO you gotta start working to create the need, not just satisfy an existing perceived need. It's a common problem in business lifecycle management when entrepreneurs strike when the iron is hot and evident, but have no strategy for the long term. See the umpteen PC "assembler" companies in the late 80s and early 90s that quickly vanished from existence.
In other words, much of the low-hanging fruit has fallen from the tree. A passing of SB16 will give you another marketing message to leverage. Use it wisely.
The guy who already owns a handgun but who just hasn't gotten around to getting his LTC only because of $140...trust me, he ain't in your sustainable business model.