I don't know; maybe not.AndyC wrote:I foresee his son being assassinated.
There have been no reports out of South Korea--at least that I have seen--indicating any increased military activity in North Korea following Jong Il's death. If there's to be a regime change, the military is where I'd expect it to come from, and I would have expected some sign of intent fairly quickly. Ain't gonna be no Time Magazine's "Protestor of the Year" ushering grassroots change any time soon into North Korea.
The reality is that it's likely to be the baby-dictator Kim Jung Un's uncle who is likely to run things for now and into the near future...that is, if Jung Un doesn't foul things up for himself and try to flex his (internal) political muscles and mess with the military. If he tries to yank the military's chain--he's a 27-year-old four-star with zippo experience--we could see big changes. But I think his uncle and his family will hold him in check and press him into maintaining the "family tradition."
If we're very, very lucky, Jung Un will be intelligent, have an independent streak, and want to lead North Korea--albeit slowly--into the global community. But much of that motivation will likely depend upon China. You can bet that Beijing is pressing Jung Un, his family, and the non-familial military leaders in order to preserve China's interests. If there is no military coup in North Korea in the next weeks or months, and the new leadership really understands its ever-increasing dependency on China, there may be progress.