Effects of ammo shortages

[Dadtodabone]

My father owns his own residential service business and he has personally seen pallets of ammo in peoples garages. Thousands of rounds in the suburbs in each house! When I say thousands I mean tens of thousands in each house is not uncommon!

Maybe I should wait for them to have garage sales in 2014. Whether or not associated with a divorce.

My BIL has accumulated 17k rounds .223, 5.56, 9mm, .45acp & gap.
He usually goes to the range to zero before hunting season, including round(s) expended during season, annual usage 20-25 rounds. None of which are in the aforementioned 17k accumulation. My sister states it's like an addiction, he can't stop, and she can't park in the garage anymore. Thankfully money isn't a problem. Yet.

[Jumping Frog]

I have no problem with stores charging high prices and I do not consider it gouging.

Price is the most effective mechanism to balance supply and demand. The demand has gone through the roof, outstripping supply, so the only way to clear the market is the have the price reduce demand.

If a market cannot or does not use price to balance the market, then the only alternative is rationing. We see that too, obviously, with the long lines at Walmart and Academy. But even rationing is not effective over the long haul because as long as there is a price differential between what someone can buy it at Walmart and sell it elsewhere, then that behavior will continue.

It is called market arbitraging, and is a huge reason that free markets are more efficient.

From a business standpoint, Walmart/Academy and others who have not chosen to raise their prices to market levels have decided their brand value is worth more than the temporary profits. But make no mistake about it, those temporary profits are being realized by a lot of people who buy at those stores for resale purposes. I am glad they are doing so. The more efficient the market operates the quicker we can get back into balance.

The only effect the shortage has had on me is I have decided to continue using my self defense ammo a little longer instead of shooting it off and replacing it. I reload my range ammo and it has had no impact on me since I have adequate supplies.

[Dadtodabone]

I'd considered this Price Arbitrage, and a quite risky form of it at that. True arbitrage requires simultaneous execution of both legs of the transaction, virtually impossible to do in a non-electronic market. The fellow buying and holding, is courting execution risk that no true arbitrageur would ever consider. The players who were early to the ammo market, September/October buyers, have probably done well, while those in by late December, early January who held inventory in expection of a ban, or made a purchase in that period, the guys who paid $.50-.60 per round for tula 5.56, have seen their potential differential decline by 50% to date.
As retail inventories continue to increase there will be more negative pricing pressure on the online traders. I'm expecting zero potential differential in 6-8 weeks. At that point well have a "Tulip" market.
In firearms, differentials have evaporated in the period post the Reid statement on the AWB.
YMMV

[Jumping Frog]

At that point well have a "Tulip" market.

Channeling a mix of Charles McKay and Yogi Berra, it is Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds all over again.

[talltex]

Get her a reloading press for her next birthday - a nice Dillon or Hornady should keep her happy

Still have to find primers however...and I haven't been able to since January...

[Dadtodabone]

At that point well have a "Tulip" market.

Channeling a mix of Charles McKay and Yogi Berra, it is Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds all over again.

lol, There are several proponents of the "Wisdom of Crowds" out there, or what I call the "who wants to be a pauper" school of securities analysis. Most, I fear, have never taken a prob and stat class.

[Dadtodabone]

I'd considered this Price Arbitrage, and a quite risky form of it at that. True arbitrage requires simultaneous execution of both legs of the transaction, virtually impossible to do in a non-electronic market. The fellow buying and holding, is courting execution risk that no true arbitrageur would ever consider. The players who were early to the ammo market, September/October buyers, have probably done well, while those in by late December, early January who held inventory in expection of a ban, or made a purchase in that period, the guys who paid $.50-.60 per round for tula 5.56, have seen their potential differential decline by 50% to date.
As retail inventories continue to increase there will be more negative pricing pressure on the online traders. I'm expecting zero potential differential in 6-8 weeks. At that point well have a "Tulip" market.
In firearms, differentials have evaporated in the period post the Reid statement on the AWB.
YMMV

Many speculators are in loss mode on their held ammo purchases from the panic "buy" period. I believe we reached zero potential differential in the last weeks of June. As manufacturers continue to increase inventory levels to suppliers and prices continue to decline, we should now begin to see a panic "sell" period as speculators attempt to convert their inventories to cash. Are you ready?

[bizarrenormality]

Many speculators are in loss mode on their held ammo purchases from the panic "buy" period. I believe we reached zero potential differential in the last weeks of June. As manufacturers continue to increase inventory levels to suppliers and prices continue to decline, we should now begin to see a panic "sell" period as speculators attempt to convert their inventories to cash. Are you ready?

I have up to $1000 I can spend on factory 9mm at 10 cents/round and .22LR at 2 cents/round from individuals.

If they want any more than that, they can keep their "investment" and I'll keep buying online.

[rotor]

When you find new 9mm for 10 cents a round or 22lr for 2 cents please let me know. Perhaps 30 years ago I could get it for that price.

[cajunautoxer]

I just got in 220lbs of .223 that I've had on backorder for a while. Only another 1k lbs and ill be back to pre Dec levels

[Carry-a-Kimber]

I just got in 220lbs of .223 that I've had on backorder for a while. Only another 1k lbs and ill be back to pre Dec levels

Lets see, 220lbs at 27lbs per 1,000 round.... that's ~ 8,200 rounds. Dang.

[Beiruty]

I just got in 220lbs of .223 that I've had on backorder for a while. Only another 1k lbs and ill be back to pre Dec levels

Lets see, 220lbs at 27lbs per 1,000 round.... that's ~ 8,200 rounds. Dang.

I am not sure why someone would need 10000 rds for a semi auto rifle. I know we live in a free market society, but this float on the boorder of absurdity.

[AdioSS]

I can shoot whenever I want now, so I don't really feel the need to shoot much.