Well, I'm not making any specific projections; I only said that it might be an approximate look-ahead. And, you're right, that broad-brush may be massively in error for the reasons you mentioned.
But two things. First is that HISD really isn't solely an inner-city school district. It covers the majority of the entire geographic area contained within Beltway 8 (
district map here as a PDF), an area about 50% larger than the City of Dallas.
Second is that the City of Houston proper, inverse to your assumptions, evidently has a larger "white" population than Harris County as a whole according to
a September 2019 pre-2020 census evaluation by the Brookings Institute:
City of Houston
- Hispanic/Latino: 37.6%
- White: 35.6%
- African American: 17.0%
- Asian: 8%
- American Indian/Alaskan Native: 0.2%
- Identifying as bi- or multi-racial: 1.5%
Harris County
- Hispanic/Latino: 43.3%
- White: 29.1%
- African American: 18.8%
- Asian: 7.3%
- American Indian/Alaskan Native: 0.2%
- Identifying as bi- or multi-racial: 1.4%
The actual
U.S. Census estimate for July 2019 shows, for Harris County:
- Hispanic/Latino: 43.7%
- White: 28.7%
- African American: 20.0%
- Asian: 7.3%
- American Indian/Alaskan Native: 1.1%
- Identifying as bi- or multi-racial: 1.4%
For the 2000 and 2010 census enumerations, the government didn't precisely bifurcate "white" and "Hispanic." But they do offer a line item for "Persons of Hispanic or Latino Origin. For
Harris County, Hispanic or Latino origin: 2000, 32.93%; 2010, 40.84%.
Of course I wasn't suggesting the "white" population would drop to 9%. But that segment of the demographic is contracting year over year while others are expanding.
My personal prediction is that one of two things will happen in the future. Either we will stop playing this stupid numbers game and tracking "race" or "ethnicity" because it only contributes to the problems of discrimination or we will see an explosion of population that claims to be bi-racial or multi-racial as society starts accepting that there is no reason to not mix the races. Given the generally growing acceptance of this IMO, I predict this will occur soon and then after the majority starts claiming multi-racial, people will stop counting race.
Unfortunately, I fear we may be going in precisely the opposite direction. And not only by pressure from radicalization. Our own system of government and education is absolutely promoting it...not just promoting it, but determining entitlements based upon it. No "community organizer" in the country would ever encourage people leave a blank or indicate "mixed race" on their census forms. The mantra instead is "underserved representation." There also isn't, I don't believe, a high school counselor who would encourage a student to leave off from a college or scholarship application that they are a minority or bi-racial minority. After all, this is how we ended up with the popular (and popularly encouraged) impression that Kamala Harris grew up amid poverty and systemic racial oppression to nevertheless become the first African American Vice President of the United States...when in fact she's the daughter of a Stanford University professor emeritus of economics who arrived in California from British Jamaica in 1961, and Shyamala Gopalan, a Ph.D. biomedical scientist and professor from Chennai, India. Kamala didn't grow up in inner-city housing on welfare and food stamps; she grew up on college campuses.
The events of the past 18 months, I think, have clearly shown that there is no interest in unity and equality...at least not among the elites driving the train. They grow their power by divisiveness, by the fact that the "flyover country" demographics of the United States don't look like the big cities, by preaching that only by making big government even bigger can racial wrongs be righted and everyone get what they're entitled to. In the 2010 federal census, only two of the nation's 10 largest cities showed a "minority" population of under 60% (Phoenix and San Diego). Houston showed the largest minority population with 74.4%, followed by San Antonio (73.4%), Los Angeles and San Jose (tied at 71.3%), and Dallas at 71.2%. Those are big voting block disparities.
