Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

[03Lightningrocks]

.....
This article suggests we would be better off if the vulnerable were sheltered and the rest just went about life as normal. Flattening the curve just drags it out......

As the numbers start to improve. What is the next step?

Because we have sheltered there will be no herd immunity.

One sick person in the population can start it all over again.
(Assuming summer doesn’t kill it off)

If you have had it, it will be safe for you to work. Everyone else will need to shelter.

At least 3 vaccine trials starting in the immediate future. Don't fall in love with "herd immunity" if you don't really understand it. At this stage, it is profoundly unclear whether what we typify as "herd immunity" is possible with this.

You forgot to add... IMHO. As you said, we just don't know at this point. One thing is for certain. This country does not have 18 months to wait for a vaccine. This country has no choice but to get back to work.

[Grayling813]

At least 3 vaccine trials starting in the immediate future. Don't fall in love with "herd immunity" if you don't really understand it. At this stage, it is profoundly unclear whether what we typify as "herd immunity" is possible with this.

Most everything about this is profoundly unclear. What isn’t unclear? The reality that shutting down the economy and putting 10’s of millions of people out of work indefinitely is going to set off a chain of events that lead to a depression worse than the early 1900’s.
Billionaire ogliarchs are salivating at the prospect of a vaccine that may or may not be any more effective than the yearly “flu shot” so they can make more billions and possibly exercise greater control over people’s lives. Some of them are even touting a vaccine “marker” so it is easy for officials to determine if you have complied with vaccination.

Yeah, we may save tens of thousands from allegedly dying from Covid-19, while ensuring 10’s of millions die from hunger, suicide, crime and civil unrest.

[philip964]

MARCH
March 22, 2020- 318,662 world, 13,672 dead. 27,004 infected US,
347 dead. 53,578 Italy, 4,825 dead. 81,397 China. Texas has 557 with 5 deaths. Houston at 154.

March 23, 2020- 354,677 cases worldwide with 15430 dead. 35,345 infected US, 473 dead. 59,138 Italy with 5,476 dead. 81,496 China. Texas has 674 with 8 deaths. Houston 166 with 2 deaths.

March 24, 2020 am- 396,249 cases worldwide with 17,252 dead. 46,805 infected US, 593 dead. 63,927 Italy with 6,077 dead. 81,591 China (is anyone believing this). Texas has 807 with 9 deaths. Houston 199 with 2 Deaths.

March 25, 2020 pm- 468,523 cases worldwide with 21,192 dead. 66,132 infected US, 947 dead. 74,386 Italy with 7,503 dead. 81,667 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 33,006 with 366 deaths. Louisiana has 1,795 with 65 deaths. Texas has 1,289 with 16 deaths. Houston 371 with 2 deaths.

March 26, 2020 am. 492,603 cases worldwide with 22,184 dead. 69,210 infected US, 1,046 dead. 74,386 Italy with 7,503 dead. 81,782 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 33,006 with 366 deaths. Louisiana has 1,795 with 65 deaths. Texas has 1,353 with 17 deaths. Houston 372 with 2 deaths.

March 27, 2020 am. 553,244 cases worldwide with 25,935 dead. 86,012 infected US, 1,301 dead. 80,589 Italy with 8,215 dead. 81,897 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 39,140 with 461 deaths. Louisiana has 2,304 with 83 deaths. Texas has 1,353 with 17 deaths. Houston 461 with 3 deaths.

March 28, 2020 12:48 pm. 640,589 cases worldwide with 29,848 dead. 112,458 infected US, 1,841 dead. 92,472 Italy with10,023 dead. 81,999 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 52,318 with 728 deaths. Louisiana has 2,746 with 119 deaths. Texas has 2,026 with 26 deaths. Houston 543 with 4 deaths.

March 29, 2020 10:48 am. 684,652 cases worldwide with 32,113 dead. 124,763 infected US, 2,187 dead. 92,472 Italy with (no data) dead. 82,120 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 53,520 with 834 deaths. Louisiana has 3,315 with 137 deaths. Texas has 2,535 with 34 deaths. Houston 810 with 6 deaths.

March 30, 2020 10:01 am. 741,030 cases worldwide with 35,114 dead. 143,532 infected US, 2,572 dead 4,865 recovered. 97,689 Italy with 10,779 dead. 82,198 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 60,679 with 1,026 deaths. Louisiana has 3,540 with 151deaths. Texas has 2,306 with 34 deaths. Houston 929 with 8 deaths.

March 31, 2020 9:05 am. 803,313 cases worldwide with 39,014 dead. 164,719 infected US, 3,170 dead 5,945 recovered. 101,739 Italy with 11,591 dead. 94,417 Spain with 8,189 dead. China 82,276 (is anyone believing this). New York state has 67,384 with 1,342 deaths. New Jersey has 16,636 with 198 deaths. Louisiana has 4,025 with 185 deaths. Texas has 3,339 with 48 deaths. Houston 1,054 with 11 deaths.

APRIL
April 1, 2020 10:58 am. 885,687 cases worldwide with 44,216 dead. 185,477 recovered. USA 190,089 infected, 4,102 dead 7,141 recovered. 105,792 Italy with 12,428 dead. 102,136 Spain with 9,053 dead. China 82,361 (is anyone believing this). New York state has 76,049 with 1,714 deaths. New Jersey has 18,997 with 267 deaths. Louisiana has 5,237 with 239 deaths. Texas has 3,925 with 58 deaths. Houston 1,267 with 13 deaths.

April 2, 2020 12:41 am. 981,221 cases worldwide with 50,230 dead. 204,605 recovered. USA 226,374 infected, 5,316 dead 8,826 recovered. 115,242 Italy with 13,915 dead. 110,238 Spain with 10,003 dead. China 82,432 (is anyone believing this). New York state has 92,381 with 2,373 deaths. New Jersey has 22,255 with 355 deaths. Louisiana has 6,424 with 273 deaths. Texas has 4,612 with 68 deaths. Houston 1,540 with 16 deaths.

April 3, 2020 11:50 am. 1,056777 cases worldwide with 55,781 dead. 221,595 recovered. USA 257,773 infected, 6,586 dead 9,311 recovered. 115,242 Italy with 13,915 dead. 117,710 Spain with 10,935 dead. China 82,509 (is anyone believing this). New York state has102,863 with 2,935 deaths. New Jersey has 25,590 with 537 deaths. Louisiana has 9,159 with 310 deaths. Texas has 5,254 with 86 deaths. Houston 1,729(+189) with 23 deaths.

April 4, 2020 11:32 am. 1,141,180 cases worldwide with 60,960 dead. 235,775 recovered. USA 278,942 infected, 7,174 dead 9,920 recovered. 119,827 Italy with 14,681 dead. 124,736 Spain with 11,744 dead. China 82,543 with 3,330 dead (is anyone believing this). New York state has 103,172 with 2,935 deaths. New Jersey has 29,895 with 646 deaths. Louisiana has 10,297 with 370 deaths. Texas has 6,059 with 104 deaths. Houston 2,029 (+552) with 26 deaths.

April 5, 2020 12:46 pm. 1,249,107 cases worldwide with 67,999 dead. 256,059 recovered. USA 324,052 infected, 9,132 dead 16,789 recovered. 128,948 Italy with 15,362 dead. 130,759 Spain with 12,418 dead. China 82,602 with 3,333 dead (is anyone believing this). New York state has 122,056 with 4,159 deaths. New Jersey has 34,124 with 864 deaths. Louisiana has 12,496 with 409 deaths. Texas has 6,872 with 123 deaths. Houston 2,281(+252) with 35 deaths.

April 6, 2020 11:56am. 1,292,564 cases worldwide with 70,798 dead. 271,013 recovered. USA 338,995 infected, 9,683 dead 17,727 recovered. 128,948 Italy with 15,887 dead. 135,032 Spain with 13,169 dead. China 82,665 with 3,335 dead (is anyone believing this). New York state has 123,160 with 4,159 deaths. New Jersey has 37,505 with 917 deaths. Louisiana has 13,010 with 477 deaths. Texas has 7,295 with 140 deaths. Houston 2,243 (-38) with 41 deaths.

April 7, 2020 11:04 am. 1,365,004 cases worldwide with 76,507 dead. 292,467 recovered. USA 369,069 infected, 11,018 dead 20,003 recovered. 132,547 Italy with 16,523 dead. 140,510 Spain with 13,798 dead. China 82,718 with 3,335 dead (is anyone believing this). New York state has 123,160 with 4,159 deaths. New Jersey has 41,090 with 1,003 deaths. Louisiana has 14,867 with 512 deaths. Texas has 8,157 with 153 deaths. Houston 2,968 (+725) with 44 deaths.

April 8, 2020 11:28 am. 1,452,378 ( +87,374) cases worldwide with 83,615 dead. 308,617 recovered. USA 401,166 (+32,097) infected, 12,936 dead 22,539 recovered. 135,586 (+3,039) Italy with 17,127 dead. 146,690 (+6,180) Spain with 14,555 dead. China 82,809 with 3,337 dead (is anyone believing this). New York state has 140,386 (+17,530) with 5,489 deaths. New Jersey has 44,416 with 1,232 deaths. Louisiana has 16,284 with 582 deaths. Texas has 9,211(+1,054) with 177 deaths. Houston 3,492 (+524) with 57 deaths.

April 9, 2020 12:51am. 1,506,936 ( +54,558) cases worldwide with 91,783 dead. 344,467 recovered. USA 432,596 (+31,430) infected, 15,774 dead 24,790 recovered. 139,422 (+4,836) Italy with 17,669 dead. 152,446 (+5,756) Spain with 15,238 dead. China 82,883 with 3,339 dead (is anyone believing this). New York state has 160,108 (+19,722) with 7,067 deaths. New Jersey has 47,437 with 1,504 deaths. California has 19,127 with 507 deaths. Louisiana has 17,030 (+746) with 652 deaths. Texas has 10,079(+868) with 194 deaths. Houston 3,770 (+278) with 66 deaths. For detailed information on Texas see https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... b9cafc8b83 For worldwide information on Covid-19 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Well talk radio is filled with interesting commentary. They seems to believe that the difference between the New York reaction vs the Los Angeles reaction to the Coronavirus is due to the amount of herd immunity that Los Angeles has due to their closer connection to China. They believe that many West Coasters got the Coronavirus in November and just thought it was the flu. Many people got mild symptoms and didn't realize they were sick. Apparently one town tested every person for antibody to Coronavirus and found that everyone they tested had the Coronavirus antibody already.

[abom2]

Call me crazy (I apologize in advance, this is probably going to be long) but here is what I think maybe the end game:

The government knows that the Health Care system could not handle the total load if we went for the "herd immunity".

With a very large percentage of the work force sick there would be a hiccup in the economy anyways. Places would shut down due to lack of workers anyway.

If a majority of folks are sick, out of work due to illness, seeing the over the top drama reports of deaths and a failure of health care. Combined with Triage style Health Care would be demoralizing to a large percentage of the population.

I think this incremental movement of the Release from Home Shelter is a psychological move on the part of government. Less likely to cause a large percentage of the group to become demoralized and loose faith in the economy and the whole system in our country.

Just as the value of money is "faith based", i.e. a particular country's currency is either desirable or not being based wholly on faith. Money is not backed by anything substantial or tangible.

The overall game I think is to get over the initial attack, we go back to work, another wave (less substantial) hits, we as a society grit our teeth and push on through, continuing to work, healthcare has a smaller group to deal with in the second attack and does not crash.

Then a third wave of illness happens 6-8 months after the first attack. We are less sensitive to emotionally and continue to push through to keep the economy going. Since the subsequent attacks are not having such a perceived large number of deaths, moral stays bouyed, resolve to see it throught is maintained.

Faith may wane, but is not lost. Faith in our system, faith in our health care, faith in the economy never falls so low that a Depression happens. While the economy was bad during the Crash, it was the populaces loss of faith in the market and banking system that caused a panic and loss of Faith. This I feel is what really caused the Depression my parents grew up in. I wish I had listened to my Grandparents more when they were alive.

Maintain the faith, that was the one tool I used the most with my troops when I was in the service. We could do just about anything and survive extreme hardships since we had faith in each other.

[Grayling813]

Apparently one town tested every person for antibody to Coronavirus and found that everyone they tested had the Coronavirus antibody already.

Would like to find that source.

[03Lightningrocks]

Apparently one town tested every person for antibody to Coronavirus and found that everyone they tested had the Coronavirus antibody already.

Would like to find that source.

It would not surprise me. But I would like to see a link to the information. I do believe far more people have had it or have it than we think. The vast majority of people who get it show minor symptoms and move on. We are hearing and reading only about the very small percentage that end up with serious symptoms.

[03Lightningrocks]

I just noticed that in the span of a couple days Harris county jumped from hitting 1000 cases to over 2300. The same link shows testing has increased to over 106,000 tests. I am guessing the increased number of positives has a lot to do with more testing being done.

This site has started adding other criteria to their daily updated stats. They are now showing hospital beds available and ventilators available updated daily based on state wide and regional. Here is the link
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... b9cafc8b83

It shows Dallas area having

2019 Population Estimate - 7,888,098

Total Hospital Beds - 13,226

Available Hospital Beds - 4,590

Available ICU Beds - 536

Available Ventilators - 1,550

Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently In Hospital - 447

Houston Area as having

2019 Population Estimate - 6,371,536

Total Hospital Beds - 11,171

Available Hospital Beds - 4,060

Available ICU Beds - 368

Available Ventilators - 1,221

Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently In Hospital - 570

[TreyHouston]

Call me crazy (I apologize in advance, this is probably going to be long) but here is what I think maybe the end game:

that was the most logical thing I’ve read about this situation. I understand that explanation

[mojo84]

Where did you get this chart? I've been looking for something similar.

LOL... twitter. I did look up all the numbers and they were accurate as of the 3rd.

[philip964]

Apparently one town tested every person for antibody to Coronavirus and found that everyone they tested had the Coronavirus antibody already.

Would like to find that source.

It would not surprise me. But I would like to see a link to the information. I do believe far more people have had it or have it than we think. The vast majority of people who get it show minor symptoms and move on. We are hearing and reading only about the very small percentage that end up with serious symptoms.

It was something Michael Berry said over the radio. He did not want to reveal his source.

[03Lightningrocks]

Apparently one town tested every person for antibody to Coronavirus and found that everyone they tested had the Coronavirus antibody already.

Would like to find that source.

It would not surprise me. But I would like to see a link to the information. I do believe far more people have had it or have it than we think. The vast majority of people who get it show minor symptoms and move on. We are hearing and reading only about the very small percentage that end up with serious symptoms.

It was something Michael Berry said over the radio. He did not want to reveal his source.

I still believe it. This thing has been going around since November. People did not start holing up until 3 weeks ago. There is no way millions have not been exposed if this virus is as contagious as they claim it is. It would be nice to see widespread testing of the masses for antibodies. At least 98% of the people who contract it have no serious affects.

[K.Mooneyham]

Apparently one town tested every person for antibody to Coronavirus and found that everyone they tested had the Coronavirus antibody already.

Would like to find that source.

It would not surprise me. But I would like to see a link to the information. I do believe far more people have had it or have it than we think. The vast majority of people who get it show minor symptoms and move on. We are hearing and reading only about the very small percentage that end up with serious symptoms.

It was something Michael Berry said over the radio. He did not want to reveal his source.

I still believe it. This thing has been going around since November. People did not start holing up until 3 weeks ago. There is no way millions have not been exposed if this virus is as contagious as they claim it is. It would be nice to see widespread testing of the masses for antibodies. At least 98% of the people who contract it have no serious affects.

I would like to see widespread testing for antibodies, as well. It needs to be done in a variety of locations across the country, urban, suburban, exurban, small town, and rural, in multiple states. How else are they ever going to have any idea about the true infection rate of this thing otherwise?

[03Lightningrocks]

Apparently one town tested every person for antibody to Coronavirus and found that everyone they tested had the Coronavirus antibody already.

Would like to find that source.

It would not surprise me. But I would like to see a link to the information. I do believe far more people have had it or have it than we think. The vast majority of people who get it show minor symptoms and move on. We are hearing and reading only about the very small percentage that end up with serious symptoms.

It was something Michael Berry said over the radio. He did not want to reveal his source.

I still believe it. This thing has been going around since November. People did not start holing up until 3 weeks ago. There is no way millions have not been exposed if this virus is as contagious as they claim it is. It would be nice to see widespread testing of the masses for antibodies. At least 98% of the people who contract it have no serious affects.

I would like to see widespread testing for antibodies, as well. It needs to be done in a variety of locations across the country, urban, suburban, exurban, small town, and rural, in multiple states. How else are they ever going to have any idea about the true infection rate of this thing otherwise?

Exactly. It is all just guessing right now. If we are going to shut down our country and bring back a depression era economy, it would be nice to know there was a reason for it.

[jason812]

Apparently one town tested every person for antibody to Coronavirus and found that everyone they tested had the Coronavirus antibody already.

Would like to find that source.

It would not surprise me. But I would like to see a link to the information. I do believe far more people have had it or have it than we think. The vast majority of people who get it show minor symptoms and move on. We are hearing and reading only about the very small percentage that end up with serious symptoms.

It was something Michael Berry said over the radio. He did not want to reveal his source.

I still believe it. This thing has been going around since November. People did not start holing up until 3 weeks ago. There is no way millions have not been exposed if this virus is as contagious as they claim it is. It would be nice to see widespread testing of the masses for antibodies. At least 98% of the people who contract it have no serious affects.

I would like to see widespread testing for antibodies, as well. It needs to be done in a variety of locations across the country, urban, suburban, exurban, small town, and rural, in multiple states. How else are they ever going to have any idea about the true infection rate of this thing otherwise?

Exactly. It is all just guessing right now. If we are going to shut down our country and bring back a depression era economy, it would be nice to know there was a reason for it.

I know several people who had flu symptoms and were sick as a dog for a week but when they went to the doctor, tested negative for flu. One was a guy at work who never gets sick and this happened to him in November. We talked about this the other day because I thought he had the flu. He said he had all the symptoms but tested negative.

My cousin and her husband are stationed in Germany both are in their early 40's. She said her husband got sick with the flu and was down for 10 days and he never gets sick either. He also tested negative for the flu. She said on his day 6, she got it. I believe this happened to them in January.

My kids were both sick the week before spring break with a fever for 5 days straight. Nothing bad but they couldn't go to school. Then my wife complained about her throat was on fire for about 4 days. We are convinced we had it in our house. I never got anything though and very rarely do I get sick.

I would love for the antibody tests to become widely available. We will find out how hoodwinked we were by the left and that the flu is just as if not more deadly. All this was blown out of proportion because of a deep hatred of Trump. I'm not saying its not a real virus, just the reaction was meant to hurt Trump's reelection.

[parabelum]

Very interesting points about the antibodies etc.
I know that in mid December we had ~1/3 of our office come down with “something” flu-like, where majority were out of office for at least 3 days on average.
Then I got sick with “something” around the 2nd week of January. First two days I felt like crud. I couldn’t get comfortable to sleep, when I was awake I just had that feeling of sickness, no fever or anything during the first two days.
Then by day 3 I developed a sore throat and my fever went to 102ish, never much over or under. I remember this was Friday after work.
That weekend I felt so crappy that even the water droplets were painful on the scalp especially. Monday my fever went to 99ish steady but I just felt miserable, but I didn’t go to Doc.
So by Tuesday mid-day I left work and went to the clinic to get checked out. I couldn’t get the crudy feeling to go away where everything is achy etc.
Got tested for flu and strep and guess what, I was negative for both. They gave me some antibiotics and some lidocaine gargle for sore throat and sent me home.
I remained in that state for at least another 3-4 days, so 2weeks or so total until I got better.
I always wondered how I could have been negative for flu when all signs and symptoms were flu-like.
Interesting. I would volunteer for the testing.