Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

[EastTexasRancher]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Minute by minute updates. Look at the 99% that are mild.

[RoyGBiv]

IF the numbers and severity reports we're hearing now were true, I would agree with you.

However, I have serious doubts about both of those. China would not have shut down their industrial production and devastated their economy for somewhere around 3K deaths - that's a number they'd hardly notice.

I also saw videos from Chinese medics and citizens of young people dropping dead in the streets, doctors collapsing in hospitals, and stacks of corpses in a single clocation that far exceeded the daily death count they fed to the public before those citizen communications were stomped on.

I don't think Italy is imposing quarantine on their whole country because a few hundred folks have the sniffles either.

I see a much more significant threat here than the "don't worry" line we're being fed would indicate.

Bear in mind that China and India have the highest rates of parasitic infections and smokers than other semi-industrialized nations. Poor sanitation, tight living quarters, etc.

Italy is "not that bad", but they have most definitely been staggering along for quite sometime in the wake of the EU debacle.

Yes, China and Italy would. Why? Because the more dense your population, the less available advanced healthcare is, and if you are genuinely trying to slow the spread of a disease, that is what you do. The greatest threat to our overall well-being at the moment is network news and their collective fear-mongering.

I will point out the obvious- if I desired to see that a large cross-section of America was exposed and (ideally) infected, I would encourage people who are already ill with respiratory issues to congregate with other such people, knowing that statistically, sooner or later, there will be a perfect storm of concurrent infections. People watch the news. They have a seasonal cough/cold, so they're afraid and go to the ER for testing. So do 200 of their not-so-closest friends.

Never attribute to cunning that which is more adequately explained by stupidity...but the end result is the same.

We should also consider South Korea's numbers. They have unique properties of being reliable and having one of the only universal healthcare systems that work due to their consolidated population and economic situation. They also test over 10,000 people per day for surprise flu. That's 4x more per day than the US has tested throughout the entire outbreak. The numbers coming out of the country are very promising. As the test gets more sensitive, they capture lighter and lighter infections. So far, they do have a large number of infections. They also report a low mortality rate of about 0.6%. With that in mind, we are seeing a statistical mortality rate of < 0.5%, which focus on the elderly and folks with preexisting chronic health problems. To compare, the common flu has a mortality rate of 0.15 to 0.2%. In other words, the surprise flu has a statistical mortality rate that is only 2-3x more than the flu, not tens or hundreds as people are led to believe. Also, the target for surprise flu is geared more toward the elderly than the regular flu.

That information is what we should react to. For the vast majority of us on the board who are not in the elderly crowd, we may just have to deal with another flu-like illness. Not a big deal. Extra prep around that is either not difficult or nonexistent as we are already prepped for worse things. To put it in perspective, a healthy non-elderly adult will be twice as likely to die in a car crash this year than of the surprise flu. Think about that for a bit. As for the elderly in this group, there is more to worry about. I'm not part of that group, so I can't speak for those of you who are. But for those who are who are also going a little "crazy" over it, I won't judge, and I will pray for your health throughout this and the next winter outbreak. Yes, I'm pretty certain it will break out again around October-November. Things like this always do. It will be worse, but by then we'll know exactly what we're up against.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_S._Fauci

Dr Fauci was just on Hannity. He said the fatality rate of the flu is 0.1% and covid19 is currently between 2.5 and 3%,with 10% of cases being serious. That's 25 to 30x the mortality rate compared to the regular flu.

We have our first case in Tarrant County today. The patient had been treating themselves for the regular flu for a week, before presenting at the er today and testing positive for covid19. That means that person has been living outside containment for 2 weeks spreading the virus.

The only good news is that tomorrow it will be in the 80s and the virus only lasts about 8 hours on 86 degree surfaces. Sorry, can't find that link right now.

[philip964]

https://news.yahoo.com/gop-congressmans ... 08737.html

Don’t call it Wuhan Coronavirus, that’s racist.

[strogg]

IF the numbers and severity reports we're hearing now were true, I would agree with you.

However, I have serious doubts about both of those. China would not have shut down their industrial production and devastated their economy for somewhere around 3K deaths - that's a number they'd hardly notice.

I also saw videos from Chinese medics and citizens of young people dropping dead in the streets, doctors collapsing in hospitals, and stacks of corpses in a single clocation that far exceeded the daily death count they fed to the public before those citizen communications were stomped on.

I don't think Italy is imposing quarantine on their whole country because a few hundred folks have the sniffles either.

I see a much more significant threat here than the "don't worry" line we're being fed would indicate.

Bear in mind that China and India have the highest rates of parasitic infections and smokers than other semi-industrialized nations. Poor sanitation, tight living quarters, etc.

Italy is "not that bad", but they have most definitely been staggering along for quite sometime in the wake of the EU debacle.

Yes, China and Italy would. Why? Because the more dense your population, the less available advanced healthcare is, and if you are genuinely trying to slow the spread of a disease, that is what you do. The greatest threat to our overall well-being at the moment is network news and their collective fear-mongering.

I will point out the obvious- if I desired to see that a large cross-section of America was exposed and (ideally) infected, I would encourage people who are already ill with respiratory issues to congregate with other such people, knowing that statistically, sooner or later, there will be a perfect storm of concurrent infections. People watch the news. They have a seasonal cough/cold, so they're afraid and go to the ER for testing. So do 200 of their not-so-closest friends.

Never attribute to cunning that which is more adequately explained by stupidity...but the end result is the same.

We should also consider South Korea's numbers. They have unique properties of being reliable and having one of the only universal healthcare systems that work due to their consolidated population and economic situation. They also test over 10,000 people per day for surprise flu. That's 4x more per day than the US has tested throughout the entire outbreak. The numbers coming out of the country are very promising. As the test gets more sensitive, they capture lighter and lighter infections. So far, they do have a large number of infections. They also report a low mortality rate of about 0.6%. With that in mind, we are seeing a statistical mortality rate of < 0.5%, which focus on the elderly and folks with preexisting chronic health problems. To compare, the common flu has a mortality rate of 0.15 to 0.2%. In other words, the surprise flu has a statistical mortality rate that is only 2-3x more than the flu, not tens or hundreds as people are led to believe. Also, the target for surprise flu is geared more toward the elderly than the regular flu.

That information is what we should react to. For the vast majority of us on the board who are not in the elderly crowd, we may just have to deal with another flu-like illness. Not a big deal. Extra prep around that is either not difficult or nonexistent as we are already prepped for worse things. To put it in perspective, a healthy non-elderly adult will be twice as likely to die in a car crash this year than of the surprise flu. Think about that for a bit. As for the elderly in this group, there is more to worry about. I'm not part of that group, so I can't speak for those of you who are. But for those who are who are also going a little "crazy" over it, I won't judge, and I will pray for your health throughout this and the next winter outbreak. Yes, I'm pretty certain it will break out again around October-November. Things like this always do. It will be worse, but by then we'll know exactly what we're up against.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_S._Fauci

Dr Fauci was just on Hannity. He said the fatality rate of the flu is 0.1% and covid19 is currently between 2.5 and 3%,with 10% of cases being serious. That's 25 to 30x the mortality rate compared to the regular flu.

We have our first case in Tarrant County today. The patient had been treating themselves for the regular flu for a week, before presenting at the er today and testing positive for covid19. That means that person has been living outside containment for 2 weeks spreading the virus.

The only good news is that tomorrow it will be in the 80s and the virus only lasts about 8 hours on 86 degree surfaces. Sorry, can't find that link right now.

That 3% is the number of deaths divided by number of confirmed cases in the United States. The United States only finally started ramping up testing, so the numbers will likely drop over time as the number of detected infections rise. Fauci is also the same person who said that the elderly and those with chronic health problems need to worry, but young adults can go on a cruise all they want as they are low risk. That pretty much mirrors what I said.

As an aside, if I do get infected, I will be sure to treat it like H3N2 and be on my merry way. I refuse to be part of the statistic.

[seph]

Not seeing this site posted here before, but here are the latest numbers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And remember that even with the highest possible amount of testing (currently in South Korea), you are only looking at about 20,000 tests a day. You will have millions of Americans that will have this virus, never tested, and will be fine. We will hear about the deaths and the cases that have tested positive, but never about those millions that were just fine.

[iratollah]

Adding to the worries of some (and some are getting seriously triggered by this pic of most any patio table near the Gulf coast):

[03Lightningrocks]

Does anyone seriously think that the governor of New York is deploying the national guard to close all schools, shops, and churches in a one mile containment area in New Rochelle (just north of New York City) to prevent people from catching a cold?

Article here.

I absolutely do. DemonRats will do anything to make this into some big issue. You act as though the Governor of NY is someone to be trusted. What a joke. He is another very crooked DemonRat. One of the most dishonest manipulating lowlifes of all the DemonRats. The guy is after his cut of that 8 billion dollars. That guy is grand standing for sure. Another serious over reaction.

[Excaliber]

Does anyone seriously think that the governor of New York is deploying the national guard to close all schools, shops, and churches in a one mile containment area in New Rochelle (just north of New York City) to prevent people from catching a cold?

Article here.

I absolutely do. DemonRats will do anything to make this into some big issue. You act as though the Governor of NY is someone to be trusted. What a joke. He is another very crooked DemonRat. One of the most dishonest manipulating lowlifes of all the DemonRats. The guy is after his cut of that 8 billion dollars. That guy is grand standing for sure. Another serious over reaction.

While I agree with you that Cuomo is dishonest and not to be trusted, I read his action here differently. Closing that many businesses and interfering with that many jobs and lives is a very unpopular thing to do. My read is that he is truly scared about where COVID19 is going in his state.

We'll soon have more insight into which interpretation is closer to the truth.

[03Lightningrocks]

Does anyone seriously think that the governor of New York is deploying the national guard to close all schools, shops, and churches in a one mile containment area in New Rochelle (just north of New York City) to prevent people from catching a cold?

Article here.

I absolutely do. DemonRats will do anything to make this into some big issue. You act as though the Governor of NY is someone to be trusted. What a joke. He is another very crooked DemonRat. One of the most dishonest manipulating lowlifes of all the DemonRats. The guy is after his cut of that 8 billion dollars. That guy is grand standing for sure. Another serious over reaction.

While I agree with you that Cuomo is dishonest and not to be trusted, I read his action here differently. Closing that many businesses and interfering with that many jobs and lives is a very unpopular thing to do. My read is that he is truly scared about where COVID19 is going in his state.

We'll soon have more insight into which interpretation is closer to the truth.

Destroying the economy is very popular in the DemonRat community. They would kill off half the jobs in America if they thought it would get them back in power. Make no mistake, 90% of this whole issue is MSM and DemonRats colluding to weaken President Trumps chances at re-election.

[03Lightningrocks]

Stock markets are throwing a coronavirus fit this morning. Apparently they were hoping for the payroll tax holiday stimulus. Market tanked as soon as it was announced it was not in the plan.This whole thing has gone way past stupid.

[03Lightningrocks]

Surgeon General: Coronavirus Less Deadly Than Normal Flu For Children And Young Adults

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... dults.html

[Rafe]

This just in: News conference scheduled for noon to announce that the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo is being cancelled for 2020. For those not familiar with it, this is a massive annual event in Houston, that includes not just the livestock shows/auctions and the rodeo competition, but tier 1 music concerts, an amusement park with rides, the famous barbeque and cook-off, junior 4-H/FFA contests, and hundreds of vendor stalls. Last year attendance was over 2.5 million people. The last full day was scheduled to be the 21st, with a few final events running through noon on Sunday, Mar 22.

[03Lightningrocks]

This just in: News conference scheduled for noon to announce that the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo is being cancelled for 2020. For those not familiar with it, this is a massive annual event in Houston, that includes not just the livestock shows/auctions and the rodeo competition, but tier 1 music concerts, an amusement park with rides, the famous barbeque and cook-off, junior 4-H/FFA contests, and hundreds of vendor stalls. Last year attendance was over 2.5 million people. The last full day was scheduled to be the 21st, with a few final events running through noon on Sunday, Mar 22.

Major events are being cancelled all over the country. Austin cancelled it's big music festival last week. I dunno if people would have attended these events anyway with the fear level being so high people are buying massive amounts of toilet paper.