Crime convictions: CHL relative to non-CHL

[Doc K]

I took the course March 16. Status changed to "Processing" about April 15.
Boredom is a bad thing. The results of boredom follow:

I found the “Conviction Rates for CHL Holders in 2005� at
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administra ... rt2005.pdf


It’s obvious that the per cent of convictions involving CHL holders is low, but…
there are fewer CHL holders than there are Texans in general.

I tried to compare an individual Texan relative to an individual CHL holder as to the likelihood of being convicted for specific crimes.
In 2005 there were 248,874 CHL holders in a population of 22.86 million Texans.

Therefore, there were 91.85 times as many Texans as there were CHL holders in 2005.
If you multiply the number of CHL holder convictions by 91.85 you get a number that compares with the total Texas population. Using this correction, you get a relative comparison of CHL holders vs. Non-CHL holders. I chose all of the Convictions listed that involved more than 3 CHL holders.

If the number is less than 1 then a CHL holder is less likely to be involved in a conviction.
If the number is more than 1 then a CHL holder is more likely to be involved in a conviction.

Here are the results of the calculations.

• CONVICTION, Relative CHL/non-CHL
  
  BURGLARY OF HABITATION, 0.11
  ASSAULT CAUSES BODILY INJ, 0.13
  ASSAULT CAUSES BODILY INJURY FAMILY VIOLENCE, 0.14
  AGG ASSAULT W/DEADLY WEAPON, 0.27
  AGG ROBBERY, 0.29
  TERRORISTIC THREAT, 0.39
  INDECENCY W/CHILD SEXUAL CONTACT, 0.76
  UNL CARRYING WEAPON, 0.86
  DEADLY CONDUCT, 1.11
  SEXUAL ASSAULT CHILD, 1.21
  AGG SEXUAL ASSAULT CHILD, 1.75

I’m not about to take raw numbers and make conclusions, but the numbers are interesting.

Sources:
Number of 2005 CHL Holders: http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administra ... aphics.htm
Population of Texas 2005: http://txsdc.utsa.edu/tpepp/2005_txpopest_county.php

[red2000vette]

You have way too much time on your hands.

[seamusTX]

Here's another way to do the math: calculate the number of convictions per 100,000 population.

The number of convictions in the report that you referred to is convictions of people 21 and older. I don't know the age breakdown in Texas, but our population is on the young side. Let's say for the sake of discussion that there are 15 million Texans 21 and older.

For the general population: 34,791 / 15,000,000 X 100,000 = 232

For CHL holders: 129 / 248,874 X 100,000 = 52

Therefore, we can say that non-CHL holders are 4.5 times more likely than CHL holders to be convicted of an offense.

Someone who has never committed a felony, not been convicted of a misdemeanor for at least five years, is not a drunk or drug addict, and is not in default on child support, taxes, or student loans is pretty unlikely to commit a crime in any case. Usually the pattern of lawlessness starts at a young age, and the person would never qualify for a CHL.

- Jim