Is Houston getting more violent

[philip964]

What with the turmoil in Egypt taking everyone's attention off of local events, it seemed that we have had a lot of violence here in Houston over the last few days.

A young high school coach died from the beating he received in a parking lot of a restaurant. So much for your life not being in danger, if someone doesn't pull a gun. His assailant was 52, almost twenty years older.

A 12 year old shot and killed his friend "to scare him" with an unloaded shotgun. At least they didn't say it accidentally went off. Guns were not unloaded and were unsecured after a hunting trip. I think Oregon gets the blame for this, not sure why it made the Houston paper.

Young couple was shot parked in the drive way of her home, man just came up to the window and started shooting. They survived.

Mom and her daughter were robbed at gun point at 1 pm in their driveway in Sugarland or near Dairy Ashford depending on which location is correct. They were unharmed physically.

Security guard was shot in the head and died at a sports bar North of the Sam Houston tollway. Hey isn't it illegal to have a gun in a bar. Maybe they didn't post the sign.

And the most disturbing at least for me was the robbery of the bank in the Randall's near Voss and San Felipe by three men carrying shotguns.
This was a few days ago. Seems the robbers have noticed the effectiveness of shotguns against their kind in recent weeks and so they have upgraded.
I guess everyone's argument between whether a 380 is effective enough or the superiority of the 45 kind of goes away when three men come to rob you armed with shotguns.

My home gun is about to get upgraded.

[seamusTX]

No. In every category of crime, 2010 was either lower than or about the same as 2009.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/cr ... ls/table-4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You can't project the trend for 2011 from a few incidents. There were about 11,000 violent crimes in Houston in 2010. That's about 30 per day. The Houston Chronicle doesn't publish half of them on any normal day.

Don't fall for the century-old newspaper trick of creating a phony "crime wave" by reporting every crime or arrest.

Also don't fall for the technique of publicizing every crime or stupid accident involving a firearm. You know the agenda behind that.

I don't know how an accident in Oregon has anything to do with anyone in Houston.

- Jim

[Thomas]

My guess is the perception of violence is increasing (due to more media coverage). Additionally, I wonder if the economy has anything to do with it. Someone more resourceful than me might be able to cobble up a graph comparing the economy to violence to see if there is a trend.

[seamusTX]

I won't try to prove it tonight, but there is no correlation between the economy and crime.

Honest people don't often start committing crimes because they are unemployed or broke. Having a conscience makes committing a crime too difficult.

A few do commit violent crime. A few more get involved in shoplifting or scams of various sorts.

The main factor in the rate of violent crime is the number of impoverished, uneducated young men in society. That demographic group has been shrinking since about 1990, and so has the rate of violent crime.

Drug prohibition contributes to the level of organized criminal activity (as alcohol prohibition in the U.S. did in the 1920s). However, prohibition is not the sole reason. Even if you could buy heroin and cocaine legally (as one could until 1934), some people would be unable to restrain themselves from violence.

- Jim

[Thomas]

I won't try to prove it tonight, but there is no correlation between the economy and crime.

Honest people don't often start committing crimes because they are unemployed or broke. Having a conscience makes committing a crime too difficult.

A few do commit violent crime. A few more get involved in shoplifting or scams of various sorts.

The main factor in the rate of violent crime is the number of impoverished, uneducated young men in society. That demographic group has been shrinking since about 1990, and so has the rate of violent crime.

Drug prohibition contributes to the level of organized criminal activity (as alcohol prohibition in the U.S. did in the 1920s). However, prohibition is not the sole reason. Even if you could buy heroin and cocaine legally (as one could until 1934), some people would be unable to restrain themselves from violence.

- Jim

Thank you for sharing. I agree with your logic, "Honest people don't often start committing crimes because they are unemployed or broke."

"The main factor in the rate of violent crime is the number of impoverished, uneducated young men in society. That demographic group has been shrinking since about 1990, and so has the rate of violent crime." - Seems plausible to me

[seamusTX]

Thanks and you're welcome.

You can research this topic easily enough. I'm not a criminologist and have no formal education or experience in that field. I just have read this and that over the years, and found the results that I stated convincing.

- Jim

[ddurkof]

Small point, but the Harrison Narcotic Tax Act of 1914 started the controls on opium and coca products. 1934 is when the National Firearms Act was passed. I don't recall any big drug legislation being passed in 1934, but I could very well be mistaken.

"An Act To provide for the registration of, with collectors of internal revenue, and to impose a special tax on all persons who produce, import, manufacture, compound, deal in, dispense, sell, distribute, or give away opium or coca leaves, their salts, derivatives, or preparations, and for other purposes." The courts interpreted this to mean that physicians could prescribe narcotics to patients in the course of normal treatment, but not for the treatment of addiction.

[cbr600]

deleted

[seamusTX]

I should not have stated a single year for the complicated history of drug prohibition in the U.S. Various drugs were regulated at the state level before the feds got into the act, and laws changed every few years.

The point that I was trying to make is that violent crime existed when no drugs were illegal (and alcohol was only taxed), and decriminalizing or legalizing drugs would not make crime go away.

Gangs smuggle whatever happens to be illegal at the time, along with running illegal gambling, prostitution, extortion, and bribery rackets. They also engage in organized vehicle theft and burglary along with non-violent crime such as forgery, scams, and identity theft.

- Jim

[Houpilot2001]

Houston has been pretty rough lately. I work in the "Adult Beverage industry" and am constantly in less than safe areas. There are many times I wish my papers would have already come in the mail. Just remember to stay alert out there and always keep your head on a swivel.

[steve817]

I remember when I moved there in 91 (only stayed a year), the lead story on the news was how they broke their own weekend record for homicides. I think it was 21.

[seamusTX]

The peak of the "crack wars" was around 1992. After that the rate of murder and aggravated assault dropped steadily until the present.

The trouble with any raw number like homicides on one weekend is that the underlying causes are ignored. Most murder victims are either victims of domestic violence or involved in drug trafficking and other gang activity. They are not unsuspecting people killed by random violence (like the Tucson shooting).

The episodes that philip964 posted at the beginning of this thread were all fairly exceptional as random and unanticipated crimes.

- Jim

[heeler]

I do make a habit of looking at the Houston Police Departments News realeases website as well as the Sheriffs Depatments news release website several times a week and although they dont go into all thefts,robberies,burglaries and so on but they most definitely put out all fatal shootings,stabbings,bludgeonings and fatal traffic accidents and it's positively amazing how many people are murdered in the city of Houston and unincorporated Harris county on a weekly basis.
Same goes for vehicle fatalities.

[seamusTX]

Harris County and the City of Houston have a population of about 4 million. It is the fourth most populous metropolitan area in the U.S. It is not even in the top 10 in terms of murder rate per capita.

New Orleans, Detroit, Baltimore, and "gun-free" Washington DC are the perennial contenders for the top rating.

You can slice and dice this data all day:
http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offens ... icide.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

- Jim

[rmr1923]

seamusTX, you seem to be a pretty resourceful and knowledgeable person when it comes to these things, so maybe you know if there's any truth behind this as i got the information second hand and have been unable to find any data that would verify or disprove this.

an acquaintance of mine (husband of a good friend of my wife) told me a while back that there was a study done that linked Metro bus stops with a general increase in crime. he said the data showed that, in general, when a Metro bus stop is placed in an area where there's previously not been access to public transportation, crime in those neighborhoods increased substantially. i guess the idea is that public transportation provides a convenient method of getting in and out of an area without worrying about things like people writing down a license plate number if they see a suspicious vehicle.


and to address the original post, i believe the general perception is that Houston is getting more violent because of the amount of attention that violent crimes receive on the morning and evening news. negativity and violence sell. there could be a hundred positive newsworthy occurrences in any given day and they would all be passed over if there were an armed robbery, aggravated assault, house fire possibly caused by arson, etc. much of the time it seems the media is in the business of selling fear and overplaying the negative while giving much less attention to positive news stories. i guess we can't blame them entirely though, because they're in the business of making money. higher ratings = $$$ and if focusing on crime and violence didn't bring in higher ratings, they wouldn't do it. as for me, i'll usually watch the news regardless just so i'm aware of these things, but as soon as Miya Shay comes on i have to change the channel.