Unlicensed open carry in Texas: a proposal

[frankie_the_yankee]

See, we are smarter than your average criminal...Where we understand the deterrent effect of firearms when they are used for lawful defensive purposes, IF "we" were to turn to the dark-side and begin a life of crime, we know we would be looking for people like us first...Whereas, the common criminal would probably not give it much thought before it was too late...

So you're arguing that because criminals are not as smart as we are, they will not think to look for OCers or to take them out first if they were conducting some kind of ambush/assault.

Seems risky to me. All it takes is one smart or observant criminal to upset the whole apple cart.

And while street criminals generally aren't the brightest bulbs on the tree, there is somewhat of a Darwinian process that operates such that only the ones with some native "talent for the game" tend to survive. (In this context, by "survival" I mean spend more time on the street before getting caught or killed.)

You won't pick out the wrong "prey" too many times before you have a bad outcome. So it is reasonable to assume that these predators, while not academically gifted, have an instinct for deciding who to attack and when.

Now I'm sure that sometimes this will result in a situation where if the predator notices that someone is OCing they will abandon whatever plan they might have had and do their crime somewhere else.

But it also seems reasonable that in some cases the predator will simply decide that he can still go through with the attack as long as he just takes out the OCer first.

Just as it seems reasonable that if someone is CCing, the BG will have no idea they are carrying. So while they may well proceed with their planned attack, they will have no idea that one of their intended victims is about to pull a gun on them and ruin their day.

Tactical surprise.

My position is well known...I would like to see it become an option to do so in this state, whether it creates problems or not with other people (who are against RKBA) is not a concern of mine, and never will be...We will govern ourselves accordingly, and be excellent ambassadors to the Right to Keep and Bear Arms...

If you choose to open carry, great...If not, fabulous...

I too would like to see it (meaning licensed OC) become an option in this state.

[tarkus]

An open carry law would make the citizens safer in Texas, and I think January of 2009 is a great time to get this done.

It should be proposed in the legislature. There are other issues that I think are more important but unlicensed open carry should be on the table in Texas. It's already legal in the majority of these United States. I know we only got concealed carry less than 15 years ago but it's not too soon to push for the right to keep and bear arms without a permission slip.

[kauboy]

I think I'm in line with shootthesheet and Stevie on this one.
As someone who sees what used to be everyday liberties, slowly dwindling away, anything that limits the government, and not the citizenry, I fully support.

For those who like the "surprise attack" idea, think about this.
Criminals work on the "risk vs. reward" method of victim selection.
If you seem like a good target, unarmed, head down, not paying attention, you are more likely to be picked by the lion than other sheep.
Regardless of whether you have "hidden" claws or none at all, they can still pick you.

Now, lets say you have a 9mm on your side. The criminal immediately recognizes that his risk vs. reward outcome is no longer in his favor. Very few have the guts to take on an armed victim. That's why you don't see officers getting taken out left and right when they're picking up something from the store on their way home. They aren't being targeted first, or at all. And as frankie pointed out, the few smart ones know better, and since they have been around the block, so to say, they will know to move on and finde an easier target. Provoking a known armed victim is something even the dumbest of critters wouldn't do. The risk doesn't make sense.

I support carry of any kind, by almost anyone.
And yes, even felons in some cases.
I've got a friend who was in the wrong place when the Sherriff pulled up and arrested everyone because they were around a stolen vehicle. He didn't know it was stolen, but got a prison sentence anyways.
Now, what right does the gubmint have to say he can't protect his life? He isn't dangerous, and there are many others like him.

Licenses restrict, and I will never agree with the menality that says we need more limits. Personal responsibility is a far better problem solver than blanket restrictions.

[frankie_the_yankee]

An open carry law would make the citizens safer in Texas, and I think January of 2009 is a great time to get this done.

It should be proposed in the legislature. There are other issues that I think are more important but unlicensed open carry should be on the table in Texas. It's already legal in the majority of these United States. I know we only got concealed carry less than 15 years ago but it's not too soon to push for the right to keep and bear arms without a permission slip.

I don't think a bill for unlicensed open carry has a snowball's chance in McAllen of passing in 2009 or any time soon.

FWIW, I while I would support a bill allowing for licensed OC, I would oppose a bill allowing for unlicensed OC.

I think it makes it too easy for armed criminals to blend in with the Good Guy population.

The cop on patrol has no way of quickly determining whether someone is a prohibited person. And I don't particularly want NICS and other related data to be at every LEO's fingertips. Too much potential for abuse.

With a license requirement, a prohibited person who goes out packing is running a larger risk of getting caught and thrown in jail than if there were no license requirement.

And as long as the license is shall issue, there is no infringement of 2A rights IMO.

People may agree with the above arguments or not. But I'm quite sure that they would be pursuasive in any debate in the legislature such that any unlicensed OC bill would never go anywhere.

And the idea that the urban population is going to be "educated" to accept non-LEO OC any time soon is a pipe dream.

We got CC back in the 90's because a lot of people wanted it. No such base of support exists for OC, licensed or unlicensed.

[frankie_the_yankee]

Now, lets say you have a 9mm on your side. The criminal immediately recognizes that his risk vs. reward outcome is no longer in his favor. Very few have the guts to take on an armed victim. That's why you don't see officers getting taken out left and right when they're picking up something from the store on their way home. They aren't being targeted first, or at all.

True, but we can't just assume that it is because they are OCing.

Another major factor is that criminals know that when you take out a cop, every cop for 100 miles around is going to be looking to nail you. And when they find you, there's a good chance you will get shot if you give them even the slightest excuse.

It's different when a non-LEO gets whacked.

[flb_78]

And as long as the license is shall issue, there is no infringement of 2A rights IMO.

So you're for everyone getting a license to speak their mind on an internet forum and having to pay the state for that "right"?

I mean, it's just a license, right?

[frankie_the_yankee]

And as long as the license is shall issue, there is no infringement of 2A rights IMO.

So you're for everyone getting a license to speak their mind on an internet forum and having to pay the state for that "right"?

I mean, it's just a license, right?

No. I said I favor shall issue licenses for carrying guns.

If you don't think there is any substantive difference between carrying a gun in public and speaking one's mind on an internet forum, I am quite sure there is nothing I can say that will make that difference evident to you.

Besides, hasn't that strawman argument been used about 5 million times already?

Look, Chas stated that there was no prospect of anything like unlicensed open carry passing in 2009 or any time soon due to an utter lack of popular support. Nobody dumped on him because he owns the site. But I guess it is perfectly OK to dump on me for saying essentially the same thing. So everybody who has ever seen a bumper sticker seems to feel compelled to quote it to me.

It's alright. I have a thick skin. And I'm impressed, though it doesn't mean much because I impress real easy.

We have it great here in TX with shall issue licensing. IMO, people should appreciate it more.

[NcongruNt]

*sigh*

[flintknapper]

*sigh*

Yup, *double sigh*

[stevie_d_64]

So you're arguing that because criminals are not as smart as we are, they will not think to look for OCers or to take them out first if they were conducting some kind of ambush/assault.

Yep...IMO, they are not the sharpest bowling balls in the bag...Dumber than a bag of hammers...

Seems risky to me. All it takes is one smart or observant criminal to upset the whole apple cart.

Absolutely...But this is where I draw the line...I think we should have the choice to OC if w want to...Most of the time, and Charles said it best, there are just not that many times that we will see someone OC'ing...And I agree totally with that assessment...

Now I'm sure that sometimes this will result in a situation where if the predator notices that someone is OCing they will abandon whatever plan they might have had and do their crime somewhere else.

Yep...But I do not believe that the average criminal will be going through a checklist of things in preparation to commit a crime, based upon if they notice anyone openly carrying a firearm...Nope, I believe we would hear of amny instances if this was true...

But it also seems reasonable that in some cases the predator will simply decide that he can still go through with the attack as long as he just takes out the OCer first.

Like you said, "risky"...It surely is something to consider either way...

My position is well known...I would like to see it become an option to do so in this state, whether it creates problems or not with other people (who are against RKBA) is not a concern of mine, and never will be...We will govern ourselves accordingly, and be excellent ambassadors to the Right to Keep and Bear Arms...

If you choose to open carry, great...If not, fabulous...

I too would like to see it (meaning licensed OC) become an option in this state.[/quote]

Then we are close to being on the same page...Not that anyone has an advantage of being more right than the other, but I am one of those folks that deep down, have always believed that it sure is appalling to have to jump through the fees, classes and scrutiny to exercise a Constitutional right...But if I didn't I wouldn't know most of some of the finest folks I'll ever know in my life if it wasn't for the hoops I had to jump through...So its kinda a mixed bag for me personally...

[frankie_the_yankee]

Yep...But I do not believe that the average criminal will be going through a checklist of things in preparation to commit a crime, based upon if they notice anyone openly carrying a firearm...Nope, I believe we would hear of amny instances if this was true...

Nope. Because OC is so rare.

According to FBI UCR data for 2006, the total violent crime rate for the USA is 473 per 100,000 population. So the probability of any of us being a victim of a violent crime in that year was 0.0473%

Now, how many non-LEO's OC? Unfortunately, there is no good data for this. But we know that in several of the largest states, including TX, OC is completely banned. In others like CA, MA, MD, NJ it is almost unknown. And even in OC-friendly states like AZ and VT you almost never see it in urban areas and not all that much in rural areas either.

So I would guess that fewer than 1 in 1000 people overall OC at any given time. And even this seems generous.

So the probability of being involved in a violent crime of 0.000473 times the probability that any given person might be OCing of 0.001 yields a probability of 0.00000473 that a BG getting ready to do a violent crime would encounter someone who was OCing.

This is 4.73 times out of a million attempted crimes.

Now according to the same UCR data for 2006, there were a total of 1.4 million violent crimes committed in the USA that year. Since 1.4 times 4.73 equals about 6.6 instances in the whole country where a BG might bump into someone who was OCing, and then have to make a choice over what to do. And the true number might well be a lot less than that if the proportion of people OCing is actually less than 1 per 1000.

Of course, this only considers chance encounters. A better gauge on the situation might be to see how often security guards (like the people who service ATM's, handle payrolls, etc.) are robbed. Usually, these people are in full uniform and are OCing.

Since we all know that robberies like this happen, it is obvious that in these instances deterrence fails.

[phddan]

You mean that "if you are going to start shooting, shoot me first" sign on your hip?

Any cites or personal experiences to back this overused myth up?????


Dan

Wouldn't logic dictate that the Police officer or open carrying citizen would be the first to be targeted by a BG robbing a place? I understand that most Postal shooters and Armed robbers aren't the brightest folks on the block, but it seems to me that most of them would understand the importance of taking out the obviously armed out first rather than latter.

Well, to me logic would dictate that if there were ANY examples of an OC citizen being targeted, it would have surfaced in at least one of the gun boards I frequent by now.
I open carried in Alamagordo NM for two years when I was stationed there, and never once had any kind of negative reaction to it.
I see this type of argument against open carry as the same argument against CC that blood would run in the streets, with wild west shoot outs everywhere. Arguments based on emotion, not fact.
If OC were ever to become a reality, there would be quite the news blitz before the law went into effect, so most people would know it was legal. Also, I think 911 operators would be instructed that when they received a "man with a gun" call, they should ask questions like is he brandishing it, is he threatening any one with it, or simply what's he doing with it ? Non issue in my mind.


Dan

[stevie_d_64]

Frankie the Yankee...

a.k.a. - "Keeper of Topical Statistics!"

I think the security guard and armored car employees, with the ATM service folks is a great demography, much closer to our community in relation to their exposure to the general public than uniformed Law Enforcment...

To all:

Even though I know this is an extremely tiresome subject, I have noticed that there is always a new twist or thought to all of them at some point...

No one has to give their desire or opinion either way on the issue, and that belabored part of the discussion is probably what tires most from threads like this...

I believe in the long run everyone would support the idea, yet there would be a choice at the time it would pass, and that expansion of our unfettered and infringed Right to Keep and Bear Arms is always a good thing...

Just my opinion...I am pro-choice when it comes to the Second Amendment...

[flb_78]

If you don't think there is any substantive difference between carrying a gun in public and speaking one's mind on an internet forum, I am quite sure there is nothing I can say that will make that difference evident to you.

See, that's where we differ, I don't see a difference.

We have it great here in TX with shall issue licensing. IMO, people should appreciate it more.

That I'll agree with. Being a former convict in the Republik of Illinois, I appreciate the ability to be able to defend myself in Texas.

[frankie_the_yankee]

If you don't think there is any substantive difference between carrying a gun in public and speaking one's mind on an internet forum, I am quite sure there is nothing I can say that will make that difference evident to you.

See, that's where we differ, I don't see a difference.

OK, so let's try another tack. Do you see a difference between carrying a gun in public and buying a box of donuts?

If so, you're halfway there.

I'm just trying to figure out where you would draw the line.