Ammo Prices going up another 50% in next 4months --> true

[ejector]

Hi guys,

I'm new here, so please excuse me if this has been mentioned before.

I was in Academy this morning looking at 9mm Blazer for $6.87/50rounds, the man behind the counter warned me that his friend at Winchester mentioned "Ammo will go up another 50% in the next four months because of Red China".

Anyone know if this is true - ammo going up 50% in the next four months?

[nitrogen]

I doubt it.

From what I know, ammo prices are mostly going up due to transportation costs. (fuel, etc.)

[Houston1944]

I do not know if ammo is going up in the next few months but if it does you can bet that copper prices played a large part in any increase. Copper has increased at unforeseen rates during the past 2 years. The rapid development of China and other Asian countries have created a huge demand for copper and no matter the political nature of a specific government, prices are controlled by supply and demand. Unfortunately we have not found anything to replace copper electrical wires and copper jacked bullets. Until we find a suitable substitute copper will have a major influence on the price of bullets.

My recommendation to offset ammo cost is to buy a 1911, get some 200 gr LSWC and load your own.

[pfgrone]

Maybe he's right - maybe not
But consider the source and the rumor:
1. Clerk behind the counter (who may/may not be a reliable source of info. Do you know him very well?)
2. A friend of his at Winchester (in what position in the company?)
3. 50% in 4 months (Does ammo have a history of fluctuating that much?)

I would'nt place much credence in the rumor -- but, naturally, I could be wrong.
Paul G

[G.C.Montgomery]

As someone who occasionally works behind a gunstore counter, I'm going to advise you to be suspicious of such rumors. Another rumor is the "surge" that was planned for Iraq was expected to require a major manufactures to commit a large amount of their capacity to providing ammunition to the goverment. This also was expected to significantly raise prices. One of the few hard facts affecting the industry is prices for copper and lead all jumped. Also, the cost for fuel has been going up.

Copper as you know is a primary raw material for brass casings and guilding metal for jacketed bullets. If copper prices go up, expected the cost of ammunition to go up too. Copper prices in particular jumped significantly in the last few months. Copper prices got high enough that thieves were willing to steal the wiring from live phone and power circuits as well as A/C and plumbing systems in occupied buildings.

And then of course there is the cost of freight. Fuel prices have been rising of late. That means whether you ship by plane, train or truck, it costs more to move product. Increased costs in logistics are almost always passed on to the customer. If most raw materials reached the end user by rail, fuel prices might not have quite as significant and affect on consumers. But, most stuff actually enters the store, manufacturing facility or warehouse by truck these days. Relative to the weight of cargo, increases in fuel costs have a much greater affect on the cost of shipping by truck than by train.

Now if the guy were to offer reasons like that, I'd be more inclined to believe him. But when a random guy working the counter at (your favorite retailer) tells you his friend at Winchester (whom you don't know from a whole in the wall) says prices will go up 50%, I'd wonder about the accuracy of the statement. FWIW, I actually recently heard ammo prices were expected to stabilize and possibly even go back down a slightly because copper prices supposedly stopped skyrocketing. I don't keep track of the markets so I can't verify that one either.

[Commander]

Bass Pro Shops had Winchester White Box 100 9mm for $12.88 today.

[KBCraig]

The increase in metal prices is a factor, as is fuel (for both manufacturing and transport).

I don't know how he came to blame it on "Red China", though. If China has an influence, it's "Capitalist China" that's affecting the market.

Kevin

[zx9rt1]

Hi guys,

I'm new here, so please excuse me if this has been mentioned before.

I was in Academy this morning looking at 9mm Blazer for $6.87/50rounds, the man behind the counter warned me that his friend at Winchester mentioned "Ammo will go up another 50% in the next four months because of Red China".

Anyone know if this is true - ammo going up 50% in the next four months?

ejector. First I would like to welcome you to the boards. Second. As far as ammo going up 50%, doubt it will go that high. Maybe 5-10% at most. The ammo manufactures sure dont want to price themselves out of the market. With all the conflicts happening around the world at present, it seems the price will and did increase somewhat. The days of buying 7.62x39 under a 100.00 bucks per 1000 are gone forever. So a slight increase would seem fair. Reloading is the option. Then again, thats just my opinion.

[Mike1951]

I looked back to what I paid a year ago for ammunition. These are Buyer's Club prices from Sportsmans Guide.

Wolf .223 55gr JHP per 1000

April 2006 - $104.47
Current - $178.57

71% increase

Wolf 7.62x39 122gr HP per 1000

May 2006 - $113.97
Current - $170.97

50% increase

Earlier in 2006 I had bought the same 7.62x39 Wolf at $90/1000.

At the Reliant gun show in May, I bought South African .308 for $215/1260.

At the fall Reliant show, it had risen to $354/1260.

65% increase

The South African has all but disappeared, but battle packs were selling at this weekend's show for $70/140.

That's a 293% increase over what I paid last May. No one sells by the case anymore.

This last one was driven by limited supply, but a good example none the less.

While I doubt any counterman has the inside scoop, it's definitely going up faster than I can afford.

Yes, reloading is an option, and I do. But I have never been interested in reloading for my semi auto's due to brass loss and the fact that most semi auto's are tougher on brass resulting in a shortened case life.

[dpatterson]

Blazer Brass in 45ACP was 19.99 per 50 this morning at Gander Mountain. The UMC 250 Rd was $89.99......

[Mike1951]

WOW!!

Carter Country, here in Houston, has the Blazer Brass for:

9mm - 6.97
.40 - 10.97
.45 acp - 12.97

That's a couple of dollars off regular price.

[Commander]

I priced Blazer Brass in .45 at Gander Mountain in Texarkana last week. It was $18.99 for 50 rounds. Walmart back here at home is selling it for $10.97.

(KBCraig, I should've tried to give you a call while I was in town, sorry, I got busy and let it slip)

[Diode]

Very true, my brother work for an electrical supply house and copper wire is going thru the roof. I load my own and I have been using a bullet feom Precission Bullets. It;s a coated lead bullet, seems to work very well. I still prefer FMJ's but I also like keeping my money. :)

I do not know if ammo is going up in the next few months but if it does you can bet that copper prices played a large part in any increase. Copper has increased at unforeseen rates during the past 2 years. The rapid development of China and other Asian countries have created a huge demand for copper and no matter the political nature of a specific government, prices are controlled by supply and demand. Unfortunately we have not found anything to replace copper electrical wires and copper jacked bullets. Until we find a suitable substitute copper will have a major influence on the price of bullets.

My recommendation to offset ammo cost is to buy a 1911, get some 200 gr LSWC and load your own.

[KBCraig]

I priced Blazer Brass in .45 at Gander Mountain in Texarkana last week. It was $18.99 for 50 rounds. Walmart back here at home is selling it for $10.97.

(KBCraig, I should've tried to give you a call while I was in town, sorry, I got busy and let it slip)

No problem. You've been busy trying to sort out your new pistol and forum name.

The Texarkana GM doesn't have the greatest ammo prices. Their best deals are usually the UMC or Magtec mega-packs. Wal Mart is typically cheaper.

[austin]

This is correct.

Numerous sources report that the USA and Iraq have placed large orders for 7.62 rounds for AK variant weapons to support Iraqi Army training.

Israel is also preparing for the expected next round of fighting with Hezbollah.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap ... 70206.aspx