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Interesting Risk Calculator. This is a pretty interesting article and Covid Risk calculator for various scenarios. You may or may not agree with all the assumptions but many of them are stated so you can adjust if you want. You can decide for yourself how well it's done but it's still kind of interesting to play around with. If you are interested, I'd suggest reading the article and then click on the calculator.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovati ... 180978670/

This article points to a few different calculators done by different folks.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03637-y

Tex1961 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:27 am On day 3, tested yesterday. I show positive, wife shows negative but both have same symptoms. Uggg.

Prayers offered.

My daugher and her familty just went through this. We were all very nervous but they experienced what seems to be typical of Omicron. The kids all had symptoms like a cold. My daughter and her husband had it more like a flu. 104 fever for a few days and a couple weeks of very high fatigue (tough dealign with kids while both parents sick. They are almost back to normal now in 3rd week.

mayor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:43 am

philip964 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:12 pm Brief Covid- 19 Update

January 7, 2022 5:15pm (9 days) Friday 302,367,482 (+2,010,059)per 24 hr average over 9 days) cases worldwide with 5,478,105 (+6,407) dead 9,371,317,757 vaccine doses, USA 59,114,417 (+613,047) infected, 835,929 (+2,022 per day) dead .

January 10, 2022 2:21pm (3 days almost) Monday 308,619,579 (+2,084,032 per 24 hr average over 3 days an increase of 20,010 per day) cases worldwide with 5,492,243 (+4,712 a decrease of 1,695 per day) dead 9,439,843 vaccine doses, USA 60,784,265 59,114,417 (+556,616 a decrease of 56,431 per day) infected, 838,527 (+866 a decrease of 1,156 per day) dead .

So is the U. S. turning the corner with this small daily decrease in new infections and new deaths?

Of course 556,616 new daily infections is still a lot.

Yep. I still have a .2% chance of getting sick with coof.

I"m curious what numbers you used. I know there are different ways to calculate this. Very early on, like in April of 2020 the per capita infections were 0.02% of the Texas population. The numbers I had then were a population of 29,360,000 and as of 4/5/2020 6,877 cases. As of yesterday, with a 2021 Texas population of 29,527,941 and total cases of 5,087,686, that yields a per capita infection of 17.2%.

Of course using vaccinated numbers or numbers from some different location, maybe a small rural town or something, you can get different numbers. I know there are several different ways to look at it but I'm just curious how you got .2%?

Death rate had gotten as high as 2.7% in Texas (I know some of the counting can be in question but this si pretty much consistent globally), with Omicron, treatment improvements, vaccines etc it's dropped back down to 1.5% in Texas. Thats from the beginning. I'm sure it's much lower if you only look since Omicron.

I don't have any numbers for being sick enough to be in the hospital.

K.Mooneyham wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:42 pm SNIP

philip964 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:11 pm Houston has dropped in half, but 13 people still die every day in the Houston area.

I am curious about one thing. How many people died on an average day in the Houston area pre-COVID? In other words, are those 13 per day proven to be excess mortality? And if not all of them are excess mortality, how many are?

Data from 2014 shows Houston (Not all Harris County) had about 15,000 deaths in the year, so about 41 per day in 2014. Deaths by all causes.

https://houston-probate-law.com/home/ho ... each-year/

An interesting (to me anyway) excersise I do periodicly is to go to the Johns Hopkins site that has global covid data and just click on each country one after the other and look at the graph of cases. I don't so much look at the raw total numbers which is also relative to population but just the shape of the curves. For each wave that has hit, it's been interesting to see the curse where it starts and and as it then spreads around the world. Here in this last wave where you really saw a big wave start was in eastern Europe and then into Germany and the Netherlands. Those places so far seem to have crested once again and are starting down but then you see other places still on the steep rise side of the curve. Italy, Spain, France, UK all at what is probably peaks now or still rising as it moves across.

The same pattern has occured multiple times now.

Another thought, I'm curious if the big move to home testing (which I'm happy to have available) will skew numbers. If people testing positive at home are not sick enough for the hospital, those numbers will never be counted. May not matter but just a thought that we could have false drops if we have significant numbers testing at home.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/ ... 7b48e9ecf6

flechero wrote: ↑Tue May 18, 2021 5:32 pm well crud! I managed to shut the tab I was in and lost the my links and comments. Not spending another 30 minutes recreating itall so here's the short version. Not all from same sources. SOme of what I said are from conversations with Dr. friends (and they cite sources) but I can't recall all of them.

google reinfection rates and then breakthrough rates. lots of commentary there and the numbers are much lower for reinfection in what I have read.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 9/fulltext

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... fection-84

https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/07/cov ... seem-rare/

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/c ... n-tracker/ not a scientific source- just a reinfection tracking page

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/h ... -data.html

I know that nothing I post is definitive and for every study that says one thing, you can find a counter point.... I really miss the days of being able to trust science and medical info!

The CDC link I posted above shows recent efficacy in the real world is matching what was seen in the trials at 94%.

If I'm reading what you have here in the CDC vaccine breakthrough data correctly, while they admit there is likely underreporting, the data shows: 9245 breakthrough cases out of 95,000,000 vaccinated people. 9245 / 95,000,000 = breakthrough rate of: .000973 or 0.0973% about 1 tenth of a percent.

Real world data from actual studies and not anecdotal experience or observation are corroborating the efficacy observed in the mRNA trials.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021 ... eness.html